Will there be a GOP runoff?

Will there be a runoff in the Republican gubernatorial primary?

Citing mixed poll results, political observers are citing the possibility that none of the four candidates will achieve the 40 percent necessary to avoid a runoff. At least one of the candidates has openly worried about the possibility.

Right now, the most likely possibility would be a close split between state Sen. Fred Smith and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the current front-runners. That would mean a faceoff between the conservative and moderate factions of the GOP.

The last time the Republican gubernatorial primary was not decisive was in 2004, when Patrick Ballantine edged out Richard Vinroot by half a percentage point. One day later, Vinroot abruptly withdrew and endorsed Ballantine, who went on to lose to Mike Easley.

The last Republican gubernatorial runoff was in 1976, when David Flaherty beat Coy Privette, then went on to lose to Democrat Jim Hunt in the general election.

Hat Tip: Brooke Cain