... And why it doesn't exist.
There are three major pollsters in North Carolina, and a numbers junky could take issue with any one of them. Here are the major arguments against them:
* Elon University Poll: The university polls households, not registered voters or likely voters. On the issues, it is a good snapshot of public opinion, but it can't predict who's going to win.
* Public Policy Polling: The Democratic firm uses Interactive Voice Response, also known as IVR or robocalling. Some conservatives take issue with its wording.
* Civitas DecisionMaker: The conservative institute samples likely general election voters, so its primary results may not be accurate. Some liberals take issue with its wording.
Basically, if you're looking for a human-operator survey of likely primary election voters from a nonpartisan pollster regularly working in North Carolina, you're not going to find it.
That said, if all three polls agree that a candidate is behind, it's probably not far from the truth.
Comments
Hey Chris
February 27, 2008 - 8:11pm — AnglicoGet your facts straight.
Your employer, the Civitas "Institute," is fundamentally opposed to 100% of what I stand for, not 98%. Which is why I never miss an opportunity to call attention to its questionable practices and questionable characters and questionable research.
And speaking of research, if you're going to pretend like you know something about what I do for a living, get one of your flunkies to do some homework first. Sheeesh.
Re: Read the original post
February 27, 2008 - 6:23pm — cthayes75You say you "wouldn't bet my life on either organization" but yet you only take the time to publicly criticize only one organization's polling. Just so happens that it is an organization that is fundamentally opposed to 98% of what you stand for.
I'll be eagerly awaiting your critiques of PPP when Tom puts out their tracking poll next week.
And just because TelOpinion does work for Republicans it somehow bias' their polling abilities for other clients? So that would be like your opinions on health care being automatically biased based on the fact you work for BCBS, right?
Read the original post
February 27, 2008 - 2:30pm — Anglicothe linkage of PPP to Democrats is clearly stated. Saying it again doesn't make it twice as true.
Ryan's comment about Civitas "polling" ignored the strong ties of the polling organization to the Republican party. (I don't consider the word "conservative" to be interchangeable with Republican by any stretch.)
That said, I wouldn't bet my life on either organization. I trust the new generation of progressive Democrats to be more transparent and ethical than Republicans and old-school Democrats, but even still, I take it all with a shaker of salt.
Re: The perfect North Carolina poll
February 27, 2008 - 2:14pm — cthayes75And PPP is run by a bunch of non-politically involved folks too, right James?
Only things that are approved by you are apparently worthy of public consumption.
Some liberals?
February 27, 2008 - 11:20am — AnglicoGood one, Ryan. Anyone with a lick of sense takes issues with polling from the Civitas Circus, and it's not just because of their crappy questions. The fact that the polling company they hire is run by Republican hacks brings into question every aspect of the so called "DecisionMarker" poll.