The Dome Office Pool: Iowa

THE CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED.

— RTB 

"Good weather" on caucus night (nothing falling and temps all the way up in the mid-20s) encourages the first-timers to come out for Obama. The Clinton organization comes through to retain a solid second place. Fightin' John Edwards finishes a respectable but disappointing third, reminiscent of Dick Gephardt. Richardson surprises by breaking into double digits. (Note to all my friends backing John--if I'm mistaken, I'll congratulate you tomorrow.)
Obama 32
Clinton 29
Edwards 24
Richardson 10

Mitt discovers that flip-flops are bad shoes for the snow. Even when his facts are wrong, Rev. Mike knows what he believes, and so do his true believers. A late surge of serious Republicans delivers third place to McCain. Wild-eyed Paulunatics carry their man to edge Fred "Mr. Excitement" Thompson by a nose, for what it's worth. Fred announces his return to the regular lineup at Law & Order.
Huckabee 33
Romney 30
McCain 18
Paul 8
Thompson 8

Democrats:
Edwards - 31%
Obama - 31%
Clinton - 25%

GOP:
Romney - 28%
Huckabee - 28%
McCain - 17%
Paul - 15%

Dems:
Obama - 30
Edwards - 26
Clinton - 25

GOP:
Huckabee - 28
Romney - 26
Paul - 13
McCain - 12

Democrats:
Obama - 31
Edwards - 28
Clinton - 26

Republicans
Romney - 33
Huckabee - 31
McCain - 12
Thompson and Paul - 10

DEM:
1) Edwards - 34
2) Obama - 30
3) Clinton - 28

REP:
1) Huckabee - 33
2) Romney - 28
3) Paul - 18

Why stop at 3?

Rs:

Huckabee: 31.75
Romney: 30.5
McCain: 12.5
Thompson: 9.5
Paul: 8.5
Guiliani: 7.25

Ds:
Barack: 32.5
Clinton: 29.75
Edwards: 29.25
Biden: 5.5
Richardson: 2
Kookcinich: 1

Dem:
1) Obama - 32
2) Edwards - 31
3) Clinton - 28

Rep:
1) Huckabee - 28
2) Romney - 27
3) McCain - 19

Dems...

Obama 34
Edwards 31
Clinton 29

Rep...

Huckabee 32
Romney 24
McCain 22

Obama 36
Edwards 30
Clinton 21

Romney 30
Huckabee 29
McCain 19

Dem:

Obama 33
Edwards 32
Clinton 30

Rep:

Huckabee 34
Romney 31
McCain 28

From user Roch101 at Ed Cone's site:

Obama: 37
Edwards: 31.5
Clinton: 29.5

Romney: 31
Huckabee: 29
McCain: 15
Paul: 9
Thompson: 8
Giuliani: 7

The beginning of the end for some....

Democrats

Edwards 34
Clinton 32
Biden 28

Republicans

Huckabee 29
Giuliani 25
Paul 19

clinton 28%
edwards 26%
obama24%

Romney 31%
Huckabee 29%
Mccain 19%

Dems
Obama 31%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 27%

Repubs
Romney 27%
Huckabee 25%
McCain 19%

OK, I'll weigh in:

DEMS:
Obama 33%, Edwards 32%, Clinton 25%

REPUBS:
Huckabee 35%, Romney 26%, McCain 17%

Democratic Caucus:
Obama 32%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 28%

Republican Caucus 1st possibility:
Romney 29%
Huckabee 26%
McCain/Thompson tie 12%
Paul 10%

Republican Caucus 2nd possibility:
Same top two
McCain 12%
Thompson 11%
Paul 8%

Laura Leslie's picks on Hunter's Tavern:

1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Paul

The numbers are a complete WAG, but...

Dems:
Obama: 36
Edwards: 35
Clinton: 29

GOP:
Huckabee: 31
Romney: 29
Paul: 17

don't have any special talents as a prognosticator from afar. This is the longest and most expensive nomination battle in history, having started a year ago. I'm really getting tired of the campaign. Thank God the voting is finally getting underway.

For the Iowa caucuses, I predict:

* Barack Obama wins the Democratic caucus with 32 percent, followed by Edwards with 31.5 percent and Clinton with 31 percent. I think Biden will come in fourth -- I've found him particularly appealing and reassuring in the last few days, based on his knowledge of what's happening in Pakistan.
* As I understand it, the other candidates must gain 15 percent in any precinct, and if they don't, their supporters have to choose another candidate. Kucinich has said his supporters' second choice should be Obama.
* Romney wins the Republican caucus with 32 percent, followed by Huckabee with 31 percent, and McCain with 24 percent. McCain will go on to win New Hampshire, but I predict Romney will be the nominee because he has the fewest negatives of the Republican candidates.

Larger predictions:
* If Clinton wins the Iowa caucuses, she'll probably win the nomination handily. She's favored in New Hampshire, way ahead in Nevada, and her early wins would give her momentum to mount a shut-out.
* Even if Edwards wins the Iowa caucuses, I don't see where he goes from here to win another state, because he's so far down in the polls in other states, even South Carolina, where he was born.
* If Obama wins Iowa, we have a real battle for the Democratic nomination on our hands. The momentum of a win there could put him over the top in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary would probably still win Nevada. I imagine Hillary would still come ahead on Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 (when about 20 states vote), but the nomination wouldn't be decided until contests after that.
* This is the strongest field of candidates we've had in a long time, maybe since 1968 (Hubert Humphrey, Robert Kennedy, and Eugene McCarthy for the Democrats; Richard Nixon, Nelson Rockefeller and Ronald Reagan for the Republicans)) or 1960. Read the classic, Making of the President 1960 by Theodore H. White, for evidence of all the bright lights in that campaign.

Previously:

* My Prediction: Hillary Clinton Vs. Mitt Romney

Edwards 36
Obama 32
Clinton 24

Huckabee 33
Romney 27
McCain 19

And Justin Guillory's picks:

Obama 38
Edwards 35
Clinton 24

Huckabee 31
Romney 30
McCain 18
Thompson 9
Giuliani 8
Paul 4

Tom Jensen's picks, from his blog:

John Edwards 34
Hillary Clinton 29
Barack Obama 27

John McCain 27
Mitt Romney 26
Mike Huckabee 22

Dem:

Obama - 33
Edwards - 31
Clinton - 29

Rep:

Romney - 33
Huckabee - 27
McCain 11

Dem:
1) Obama - 31
2) Edwards - 28
3) Clinton - 26

Rep:
1) Huckabee - 24
2) McCain - 22
3) Romney - 19

DEMS
1. Obama, 29 percent
2. Clinton, 28 percent
3. Edwards, 26 percent

REPUBS
1. Huckabee, 28 percent
2. McCain, 26 percent
3. Romney, 25 percent

Dems:

1. Clinton - 29
2. Edwards - 28
3. Obama - 26

Biden will surprise and finish fourth.

Reps:

1. Huckabee - 32
2. Romney - 28
3. Paul - 14

Thompson falls out of the top five, and hopefully out of the race.

Dem:
1) Edwards - 29
2) Clinton - 27
3) Obama - 26

Rep:
1) Romney - 32
2) Huckabee - 26
3) Thompson - 14

DEMS:
Edwards: 24
Obama: 20
Clinton: 20

The story will be Joe Biden, who'll come in fourth and claim the "Comeback Kid" mantle. (Won't last long, though. He'll talk himself to death- politically speaking, at least- within weeks.)

REPS:
Huckabee: 30
Romney: 25
McCain: 24

Look for Ron Paul to do better than most political pundits and sensible folk would expect.

Dem:

Obama - 34
Edwards - 33
Clinton - 29

Rep:

Huckabee - 33
Romney - 31
Guiliani - 30

(really I am afraid to call third on the republican side...everyone else had already done McCain though)

Dem: After second chance votes.
1) Edwards - 32
2) Clinton - 26
3) Obama - 22

Rep:
1) Huckabee - 32
2) Romney - 26
3) McCain - 17

DEMS

1. Obama, 33 percent
2. Clinton, 27 percent
3. Edwards, 22 percent

REPUBS

1. Huckabee, 29 percent
2. McCain, 26 percent
3. Romney, 24 percent

Dem:
1) Edwards - 30
2) Clinton - 24
3) Richardson - 14

GOP:
1) Romney - 33
2) Huckabee - 22
3) McCain - 18

That's right, Richardson & McCain. Conventional wisdom be damned.

Dem:
1) Edwards - 34
2) Obama - 33
3) Clinton - 28

Rep:
1) Huckabee - 30
2) Romney - 28
3) McCain - 19

Edwards 30
Clinton 29
Obama 28

Huckabee 34
Romney 32
McCain 15