The case for Obama in N.C.

Who will win North Carolina?

At this point, anyone who tells you they know who will win the presidential race in North Carolina is either faking it or trying to fake you out.

Below, Dome looks at the arguments for Democratic candidate Barack Obama winning the state. Later, we'll look at the arguments for Republican John McCain, in order of importance.

ADVERTISING: Obama has outspent McCain 8-to-1 on ads here. McCain narrowed the gap with the help of the Republican National Committee, but those attacks aren't as effective because they have to include Congress and they're not as centrally coordinated.

GROUND GAME: Obama has 400 paid staffers in North Carolina, 47 offices and a network of 21,000 volunteers. McCain has about 40 offices and 30 paid staffers. Obama has been organizing here since the pivotal May 6 primary; McCain started in early October.

POLLING: Since the beginning of October, Obama has been ahead by one to seven points in 15 North Carolina polls and tied in three. McCain has been ahead in just two polls, both of which date to the beginning of the month. 

DEMOGRAPHICS: Obama will win the vast majority of black voters, who make up about 20 percent of the electorate. He'll also get a boost from transplanted Northeasterners working white-collar jobs in the corridor along Interstate 85. 

ISSUES: Between Wachovia's merger and continuining losses in manufacturing jobs, North Carolina's economy is getting hit on both ends. Voters blame the GOP for the problem. Obama has focused on the economy and hit McCain on free trade. 

ATTENTION: Obama has made 19 major stops in North Carolina before crowds ranging from a few hundred to 28,000 since 2007. In all, an estimated 144,050 have been at Obama events. McCain has made five stops, speaking to about 9,700 people.

SURROGATES: Obama's surrogates include current and recent governors and Congressmen, retired generals and veterans, and well-known actors and actresses. McCain's surrogates have included Bob Dole and other former Republican officials.

ENDORSEMENTS: Obama's won the endorsements of five newspapers, legendary basketball coach Dean Smith, musician James Taylor, especially important because of his campaign's strategy of getting third-party authenticators. 

Disagree with these arguments? Make your case in the comments below.