The case for McCain in N.C.

Who will win North Carolina?

As we've said before, anyone who says they know is lying because there are just too many variables at play in the presidential race here.

Below, Dome looks at the arguments for Republican John McCain taking the state on Nov. 4. To see our arguments for Democrat Barack Obama, see this earlier post.

HISTORY: This is a Red State. North Carolina has not gone for a Democrat since 1976. Jimmy Carter was a Southern governor boosted by post-Watergate anger. Bill Clinton's efforts in 1992 were for naught. Neither did well in their second try.

DEMOGRAPHICS: North Carolina is changing, but it's not changed yet. Sure, a lot of Northeasterners have moved here in recent years, but a significant portion of the state's voters are still native conservatives. Maybe in 2012 or 2016, but not now.

RACE: Obama's boost from higher black turnout will be more than offset by the reluctance of a percentage of white voters. Harvey Gantt lost Senate races twice and the most recent black statewide elected official was Ralph Campbell, who lost in 2004.

SUB-ROSA CAMPAIGN: McCain may not have spent as much on TV and radio ads, but his campaign and the Republican National Committee have flooded the state with negative robocalls and mailers. They're not getting the same publicity, but they could work.

PALIN: McCain may not be beloved by socially conservative Democrats, but his running mate is. Sarah Palin's rallies have drawn huge and enthusiastic crowds, and she may bring many of those same folks back to the polling places on Election Day as well.

MILITARY: McCain is a former prisoner of war with a lot of expertise in foreign policy. He's tailor-made for the state's veterans and active-duty service members at Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, not to mention members of the National Guard.

PUNDITS: Democratic political consultant Gary Pearce, Republican consultant Carter Wrenn, and Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza all say that Obama won't win North Carolina. Most others will only say Obama could win here.