Neil Newhouse, the pollster for the Romney campaign, issued a memo Monday predicting that the "Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal."
Newhouse's spin: In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.
Last week, David Simas, the Obama campaign's national director of opinion research, said Republicans just can't believe North Carolina is competitive and referred to GOP memos like this one. “To this day," Simas told a crowd at the Democratic convention, “they do not believe that North Carolina is a swing state. They believe North Carolina is a red state. North Carolina will be a swing state not only for this election but for the election after that, but for the election that, and for election after that."
The Romney campaign memo is designed to negate -- or set low expections for any post-convention polling bump. (Though President Barack Obama apparently didn't get one here in North Carolina.) Don't get too worked up about the latest polling," Newhouse cautions. "While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."