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Proposed Congressional redistricting maps could trigger big GOP gains

The Congressional redistricting maps proposed by Republican leaders would split Wake County between four districts, while statewide the GOP could pick up as many as four seats now held by Democrats.

Democratic Congressman Brad Miller's district would be dramatically re-aligned from a heavily Democratic district to a Republican-leaning district, reports The N&O's Rob Christensen.

"We believe that our proposed Congressional plan fully complies with applicable federal and state law," said state GOP redistricting chairs Sen. Bob Rucho and Rep. David Lewis, in a joint statement. "We also believe that a majority of North Carolinians will agree that our proposed plan will establish Congressional districts that are fair to North Carolina voters."

If you have a resonable level of sophistication with computers, you can access an online district viewer that allows you to drill down to see the proposed lines at the street level. Once the viewer is launched, check the box marked "Rucho-Lewis Congress 1" under the tab "District Plans."

According to John Davis, editor of the John Davis Report, Democratic registration in the 13th district would plummet from 51 percent to 41 percent, while Republican registration would increase from 26 percent to 37 percent. Stokes and Surry Counties, both reliably Republican Counties have been added to Miller's district.

Reliably Democratic precincts in Guilford County have been removed, Davis reports. Conservative districts in northern Alamance, northern Orange and northern Durham counties have been added.

The Republicans proposed new congressional maps will likely mean that the GOP will pick up the seats held by Miller, Larry Kissell, and Health Shuler, while making it difficult for Democrat Mike McIntyre to hang on to his seat.

“Under the new congressional districts released today, the partisan advantage will immediately shift from 7 Democrats and 6 Republican to 8 Republican and only 3 guaranteed Democratic districts, with 2 that will depend on the strengths of the candidates and the prevailing partisan winds of the given election year,” Davis writes.

Among the surprises of the maps is there is no double bunking. All of the incumbents would be kept in their current districts. And there would be no third black majority district created.

The Republicans have apparently decided that 4th District Democrat David Price of Chapel Hill is too strongly positioned to be targeted.

————

If anything, Price emerges in the new redistricting map with a more Democratic district. A number of precincts in Southern Wake County that have a history of voting Republican have been taken out of his district and been moved to Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers district to try to buttress her re-election prospects, according to Davis.

The state's two African-American congressmen, G.K. Butterfield and Mel Watt, also emerged with strong Democratic districts.

The GOP plan has moved to weaken McIntyre's 7th District, moving two counties with a history of voting Republican, Onslow and Carteret, from the 3rd district of Republican Walter Jones.

Democratic friendly parts of Cumberland, Duplin and Robeson counties have been taken out of the district. McIntyre is expected to be challenged Republican Illario Pantano, who he defeated last year.

The district has 9 percent fewer Democrats, but Davis said that McIntyre still has “a fighting chance” to win re-election. But the realignment to include Camp Lejune in the district could boost Pantano, a former Marine.

In the 8th District, long considered the biggest swing district in the state, the new GOP plan make it much less friendlier for two-term Democrat Kissell.

It adds parts of three strong Republican counties, Randolph, Davidson, and Rowan, while taking out Democratic leaning areas of Mecklenburg County. It has gone from a district that voted 52 percent for President Barack Obama in 2008 to a district that voted 44 percent for Obama that year, according to Davis.

The Republicans are also making life difficult for Shuler. They have moved Republican leaning counties Mitchell, Caldwell and Avery Counties into the 11th district, while moving out half of Democratic leaning Buncombe County into Republican Patrick Henry's 10th district.

The Republican plan also moves to bolster freshman Renee Ellmers of the 3rd District, who last November defeated Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge. Ellmers was given all of Sampson County, a reliably Republican County, but she will no longer represent Franklin or Nash County precincts. The district has gone from 51 percent Democrat and 28 percent Republican to 39 percent Democrat and 36 percent Republican.


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Price needs to go

It is too bad that Rep. Price district was not redrawn sufficiently to get him out of there. His irresponsible votes for decades as our federal Representative has done reprehensible damage to future generations. As one example, he has voted over and over for decades to spend more money than our federal government had coming in, and now we are trillions of dollars in debt, and that debt is being passed along to our children and grandchildren to have to pay. They will have their own financial issues to deal with in their time - why is Price expecting them to have to pay for us too? His irresponsible and what I consider to be immoral votes over the decades to spend money we did not have is more than enough reason to vote him out, and vote in someone who will work to undo the damage of Price and Pelosi.   

Lawsuit?

Can you say "Waste of Time" If the old Rorschach shaped districts were legal, these districts will be also.

Just an observation

I think the legalized gerrymandering of the VRA actually has lessened the impact of Minority voting by caging these voters into Majority minority districts. And much like  other forms of afirmative action I think it has exacesrbated the problems of the minority. If that minority populations votes were spread into other districts they would have much more impact than to have only 2 minority house members who for the most part cary little weight in congress. I do agree prior Democrat drown maps were a lot more brazen. They disgusted me too. I'm wit the one guy. A kid could o this with Crayons. We should let professional engineers do this and not let politicans of any party get a hand in this. They create the vast majority of our problems.

Just an observation

I think the legalized gerrymandering of the VRA actually has lessened the impact of Minority voting by caging these voters into Majority minority districts. And much like  other forms of afirmative action I think it has exacesrbated the problems of the minority. If that minority populations votes were spread into other districts they would have much more impact than to have only 2 minority house members who for the most part cary little weight in congress. I do agree prior Democrat drown maps were a lot more brazen. They disgusted me too. I'm wit the one guy. A kid could o this with Crayons. We should let professional engineers do this and not let politicans of any party get a hand in this. They create the vast majority of our problems.

Crybabies?

We'll see who's a crybaby when the Repubs are back in the minority. I'll bet you guys just can't get over that NC went for Obama, can you? You'll never get over that one! ;-)

It should be done by an independent commission

It ought to be done by an independent commission as it is in 5 other states. That's the only fair way.

12 never actually went to Raleigh

And yes, the original draft of 12 was atrocious, like I said in my post already, but it was overruled (rightly so) and redrawn.

The districts are also supposed to be drawn to represent our state in the national government, which with a minimum of 8 republicans out of 13, it is not.

I guess that makes me a 'screeching lib' now, doesn't it?

 

Edit: And 13 is 'contiguous' by 1 residence. Check the map. That hardly seems in good faith.

GOP Policy

Easily counteracts any gains they stood to enjoy from drawing these maps.  Citizens will easily recognize that the policies of the GOP GA are setting NC back decades and they will not vote GOP again.

Maps

It's easy to scream 'gerrymandering' when you look at the maps, but there are Constitutional requirements in how these districts are established- namely that each represents, as much as possible, an equal number of residents, and each must be 'contiguous territory'- meaning it's all connected. There is also verbiage about not dividing counties, but obviously that doesn't seem to apply here. (?) So given that our population is very much concentrated in the Piedmont, it's impossible to come up with a nice neat looking map because large rural areas in the East and West will almost certainly have to reach into more populated regions to be sure that each district contains roughly equal populations. So when you look at the map and see 'odd' looking districts, understand that no district map can look nice and even; any map will have its oddities. Obviously both parties have their self interests in mind, but just because a map looks unusual is not enough on its own to start suggesting unethical gerrymandering. As they say, elections have consequences.

Where were you when the Dems were doing worse

Don't forget that 12 used to come all the way to Raleigh via Greensboro.  All of these three cities have little to do with each other.  And who made that district???  When you are attempting to insert a desired result into the process this is what you have to live with.  I guess the libs just can't live with their own medicine. 

Why is there an issue?

From what I can see all but two districts have a minimum of gerrymandering.  You can definitely see that 12 and 4 are there to provide a desired result.  I assume with the utmost cofidence that you libs are not attacking those districts?!  I guess when the shoe is on the other foot after 100 years it does not feel comfortable (even if we finally got them onto the correct feet).

Of course there will be lawsuits

that is a given and was a reality the day after the 2010 election...the Republicans expected it and plan for it.

I do love the cries of screeching libs

"liberals screeching " .... is there a more lovelier sound on this Earth?

If liberals screech and no one hears them, does it matter even less?  Like trees falling in the deep woods.

FAR less gerrymandered

Just printed out the current and proposed maps and anyone that thinks the proposed map isn't better geographically is simply not looking at both maps. 

The VRA literally dictates that minority districts have to be gerrymandered.

 

What do people of Raleigh and Perquimans county have in common?

District 1 covers portions of the "P" counties but also half of Raleigh. The only thing these groups have in common is that they are being lumped in to a horrifically gerrymandered map. You thought 12 was bad back in 2000, this map is atrocious.

Are 12 and 13 (or is that 2 with a hole in Raleigh) even contiguous? And 4 looks like a jelly fish.

 

These people ought to be ashamed of themselves.

Boundaries

Is it really so hard to draw along the county boundaries?  Even an 8 year old can color inside the lines.

Crybabies

Crybabies is what we can expect. Democratics had more than 100 years to do it differently and fully enjoyed their bounty instead. I suspect some of the "more sober" voices lamenting partisan redistricting are in truth nothing more than Democrats in moderate clothing.

I had hope

I had hope when republicans said they were going to avoide gerrymandering. I mean it had to be better than the stuff we got from the Democrat machine that ran the place for so long. But as I can see here instead it;s just one big plan to elect more republicans rather than setting up some sane geogrpahical boundaries. I contend the extreme polarization in polotics we have is probably going to be best adressed at the redistricting level. If we had geographic districts in regular shapes we would get mroe moderates,. Both parties do this pathetic behavior to win for their ideological agenda at all costs. I am increadibly dissappointed.

I had hope

I had hope when republicans said they were going to avoide gerrymandering. I mean it had to be better than the stuff we got from the Democrat machine that ran the place for so long. But as I can see here instead it;s just one big plan to elect more republicans rather than setting up some sane geogrpahical boundaries. I contend the extreme polarization in polotics we have is probably going to be best adressed at the redistricting level. If we had geographic districts in regular shapes we would get mroe moderates,. Both parties do this pathetic behavior to win for their ideological agenda at all costs. I am increadibly dissappointed.

So much for avoiding

So much for avoiding gerrymandering. The district running from Charlotte to Winston Salem, and the one from Durham down through Chatham County, are as gerrymandered as they come. Chopping Wake County into 4 districts means four representatives, each with their little enclave of voters instead of covering the whole Raleigh metropolitan area. What other county gets that treatment (hint; Wake tends to vote Democratic)?

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