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Poll suggests GOP headed toward runoff in lt gov. and auditor races

It looks as thought the Republican primary for lieutenant governor is heading for a runoff.

State Rep. Dale Folwell leads with 15 percent, followed by 12 percent each for Raleigh architect Dan Forest and Wake County commissioner Tony Gurley, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling. Grey Mills has 8 percent and Arthur Rich has 2 percent.

That is far below the 40 percent needed to win the primary outright on May 8.

In another race headed for a runoff, Wake County school board members Debra Goldman has 12 percent and Greg Dority has 11 percent in the GOP primary for state auditor. Former legislator Fern Shubert has 7 percent, followed by Rudy Wright and Joseph Hank DeBragga with 7 percent each.

There is no suspense in the governor's race. Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is favored by 66 percent. None of the other five GOP candidates has more than 3 percent.

The presidential primary race also appears settled. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 48 percent, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 30 percent, and Congressman Ron Paul with 12 percent.

The survey of 521 Republican primary voters was conducted April 20-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.


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Fern SHUBERT hands down best choice for auditor!

NO one running for NC Auditor compares to the knowledge and ability of Fern Shubert, CPA!   Not only is she a former NC Senator, since her last term in office, Fern has stayed on in Rawleigh to monitor corrupt state government.  No one in NC knows MORE about the REAL problems in NC like Fern Shubert!

There is no doubt in my mind

There is no doubt in my mind that Dale Folwell is the right choice for Lt. Governor. While others have spent the last year or so campaigning, Folwell has spent his time in the Legislature getting things done and helping to solve some of North Carolina's problems.

As the Lt. Governor, Folwell can bring a sense of conservativism to the state Board of Education, a wealth of economic knowledge to the state's economic development efforts, and strong leadership as the President of the State Senate.

Look as the record - dalecanfixnc.com - compare it to the other candidate and you will see there is really only one choice: Dale Folwell for Lt. Governor!

The trend is my friend

 

Actually, the current poll results lead me to hope I’ll win the Auditor’s race without a runoff. Static analysis, just looking at the current snapshot, is often misleading, and I suspect it may be in this case given the established trend in my favor. As someone who does numbers for a living, I can’t help noticing trends and patterns.

The trend is easier to see if you correct the typo in the article. The people trailing me do not have the same 7% I enjoy. They are actually tied at 4%, a gain of 1% for one and a loss of 1% for the other. In other words, not much change in their percentage favorable or that of the current frontrunners since the first poll after filing.

In the first poll after filing, I was tied with another candidate at 3% while the current frontrunners, who had a head start on campaigning, were tied at 11% and the remaining candidate had 5%. 67% were undecided.

The current poll shows that 61% are still undecided. But of the 6 % that made a decision since the first poll, two/thirds picked me. My favorable percentage has more than doubled, from 3% to 7% as people made their decisions.

No one else has shown that sort of gain. And obviously a lot more people will make a decision before voting.

The more people look at the candidates and their actual qualifications for doing the job of State Auditor, the better I'm doing. In other words, when people decide, they tend to decide in my favor.

If the currently undecided voters follow the established trend when they made their decision, no run-off will be needed. Obviously I hope the trend continues.

 

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