Poll: Neal and Hagan in tight race

A new statewide poll shows the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate to be a dead heat.

Jim Neal, a Chapel Hill investment banker, is supported by 21 percent of likely voters, compared to state Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro, with 18 percent, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV.

The survey found 44 percent of Democratic voters were undecided, with Marcus Williams, Howard Staley and Duskin Lassiter in single digits, reports Rob Christensen.

The new poll also found that Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue was leading state Treasurer Richard Moore, 44-28 percent, in the Democratic primary for governor.

In the GOP primary for governor, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory led with 26 percent, followed by state Sen. Fred Smith with 18 percent, Salisbury attorney Bill Graham with 16 percent, and former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr with 12 percent.

In the presidential race, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, 49-41 percent.

The survey was taken by automated phone calls on March 8-10. There were 713 Democrats interviewed with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, and 403 Republicans interviewed with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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Re: Poll: Neal and Hagan in tight race

Submitted by liam on March 12, 2008 - 9:26am.

SurveyUSA uses an automated "push button" survey as well. They are one of the oldest practitioners of this method. It's how they can poll instantly on any number of issues in all 50 states at the drop of a hat.
Both SurveyUSA and PPP make their crosstabs available. They both record demographic information as well. Just so we're clear.

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Re: Poll: Neal and Hagan in tight race

Submitted by liam on March 12, 2008 - 9:22am.

I suspect this is an outlier rather than a show of any momentum on the part of Neal or his campaign. Although he has been campaigning hard in recent weeks.

Given that neither candidate has done more than a little bit of retail politicin' around the state, I don't think this survey is of much use. Wait until the television and serious voter contact start up, then let's measure support.

On the point of SurveyUSA being more reliable than PPP, I don't see any reason to make that assertion.

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Re: Poll: Neal and Hagan in tight race

Submitted by livinthedream1013 on March 12, 2008 - 9:22am.

The fact is that Hagan has been a tremendous failure as a candidate, hasnt done anything to earn votes, and is weak on issues that matter to Democrats (Iraq, Waterboarding (how do you NOT know your position on torture?), FISA, Health Care), she hasnt stated any real issue positions or how she thinks. She cashes the checks, and builds her backroll from her well-connected lobbyist buddies.

SurveyUSA and PPP can easily have such a huge difference. Why? SurveyUSA is actually a real polling firm. They actually do POLLING: calling people on the phone, having a real live person asking the question, and registering demographic information. PPP is a push button "survey", and that is being generous. It has no scientific validity, no crosstabs, and no reason for being able to call it a poll.

So, I guess what I am saying is that I cant believe anyone put any stock in PPP before.

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Re: Poll: Neal and Hagan in tight race

Submitted by FSUNoles46 on March 11, 2008 - 10:38pm.

I'm simply confused as to how Survey USA and PPP can both continue to poll Jim Neal in much different ways. Neal is still only a few percentage points over Williams according to PPP yet he's a few over Hagen now in Survey USA. Survey USA is usually considered more reliable, but i simply can't believe that Neal is leading Hagen from what i've seen before.

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