Odds are slim on smoking ban

A ban on smoking in restaurants has a slim chance in the state House.

Although a similar bill failed on a 61-55 vote in 2007, a number of legislators have retired or been defeated (or in one case, expelled) since then.

A Dome analysis shows that the lawmakers still in office who voted on the previous ban are almost tied: 50 who voted for it remain, as do 48 who voted against it.

The decision appears to lie in the hands of the House freshmen, two legislators who were appointed after the vote, three who were absent that day and possibly Speaker Joe Hackney.

The freshmen include five Democrats and 11 Republicans. The two appointees are both Democrats. The absentees were two Democrats and one Republican. And Hackney is a Democrat.

If the Democrats who didn't vote last time went in a bloc for the bill and the Republicans went against it, the final vote would be 59-60. (Hackney only votes in the event of a tie.)

However, the last vote was not along party lines, as 17 Democrats joined the Republicans, while only eight Republicans crossed over.

That means Rep. Hugh Holliman will have to maintain all his previous votes, corral all the new Democrats and win at least one Republican crossover (or convenient absence) to win — a tall order.