How much will Barack Obama boost black turnout?
That question lies at the heart of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee's campaign to win North Carolina's electoral votes.
At a campaign rally in August, Obama said that he could boost turnout among black voters by 25 to 30 percent — enough, he argued, to put states like North Carolina in play.
"I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum," he said, according to USA Today. "Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."
That sounds like a tall order, but it's happened before. In the 2000 election, black turnout went up by more than 100,000, or about 25 percent, from the 1996 campaign. And in 2004, black turnout went up again by 154,000, or about 30 percent.
To make a similar jump this year, black turnout would have to go up by 166,000 to 200,000 voters.
After the jump, the raw numbers.
Black Turnout in Past Presidential Elections
Percentage: 50.6 percent
Percentage: 52.2 percent
Percentage: 59.7 percent
SOURCE: State Board of Elections