A recently-released poll, unmatched in scale and reliant on a cutting-edge methodology to guess what North Carolina voters will decide, provides a fresh look at what the state's political landscape is likely to look like after Election Day.
The Courier-Tribune on Friday released results of the labor-intensive poll, and the numbers suggest the state will stay blue at the top of the ticket and give a near-sweep for Democrats down-ballot. The topline numbers:
- Barack Obama (D) +12 over Mitt Romney (R) for President
- Walter Dalton (D) +4.5 over Pat McCrory (R) for Governor
- Steve Wilkins (D) by a mile over Renee Ellmers (R) for U.S. House from District 2
- Linda Coleman (D) by even more than a mile over Dan Forest (R) for Lieutenant Governor
- Paul Newby +18 over Sam Ervin for state Supreme Court
The Asheboro newspaper didn't go with the tried and (occasionally) accurate method of calling likely voters and asking which candidate will get their support.
Instead they chunked pumpkins, and the numerical spreads are measured in feet rather than percentage points.
The pumpkins were hand-crafted with Sharpies to look like the candidates, then chunked by trebuchet. Whichever went the farthest is projected to win the race.
The grandest pumpkin in all the land this year flew for Steve Wilkins, a Durham-native and retired Army officer. His pumpkin landed three feet shy of going the length of a football field.
Cross tabs are not available, but there are a few interesting footnotes, according to the newspaper.
Lending credibility to the Pumpkin Chunking Poll, in 2004, the John Edwards pumpkin "misfired and plopped 10 feet away. True story."
This year, Big Bird was launched and able to fly a short distance on his own without public assistance. Also, a cushaw squash was tossed, showing that sequestration would not have a huge impact on America.