National Journal's political prognosticators issued a dubious ranking with North Carolina at the top: most likely governor's office to change parties.
The analysis doesn't tout Republican Pat McCrory's positives, or Democrat Walter Dalton's negatives, so much as reflect Gov. Bev Perdue's shadow on the race. North Carolina bests Washington state and Montana, the other top two states.
Here's the writeup: "The fundamentals of the contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and Republican former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory haven't changed much. Each candidate is working to undermine the other's image — Dalton wants McCrory to release his tax returns, McCrory wants to see Dalton's travel records — but the advantage lies with McCrory. That's largely because Walton's boss, Gov. Bev Perdue, is so unpopular. In an era of increased partisanship, it's going to be tough for Dalton to convince North Carolinians to give the Democratic Party another shot, albeit with a different candidate."