Political analyst Nate Silver, who has a track record of making accurate predictions, picks Secretary of State Elaine Marshall as the most likely victor in the Democratic primary in May, with a 75 percent chance of winning.
But it's a good news, bad news thing for Marshall.
Silver also predicts Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr has a 77 percent chance of winning in November.
Silver writes the FiveThirtyEight blog, which has proven its analyses are an accurate predictor of election outcomes
UPDATE: Post corrects odds Silver gives of Burr winning in the general election and Marshall winning the primary.
Comments
BestSarah, so what your
March 12, 2010 - 10:19am — laba222BestSarah, so what your saying is the folks in DC should intervene and determine who NC's Senate candidate should be? Shouldn't that be the job of NC voters? I think this is the most frustrating part about what the DSCC thinks there job should be. NC voters actually really like Elaine Marshall.
Still betting on Cal
March 12, 2010 - 8:07am — bestsarahI cannot believe that the DSCC will allow Cal to lose the primary. The DSCC needs to make a stand since they lost to Brown in Mass. There is much time left before the vote and I think the media campaign will vault Cal to victory. Don't forget that Obama called Cal on the phone. That is an important fact to remember. I love the 'friends and family' plan myself. Staying in touch is important in this topsy-turvy world in which we live. Brighten someone's day today with a call.
Like the old song goes, "I just called..... to say........ I Love You!"
Cunningham still thinks this race is going to be won in DC
March 11, 2010 - 10:50pm — politicalzooncHe met again with the K-Street crowd in DC today at a private meet and greet with the North Carolina Democratic Club of Washington. Marshall is going to win the primary because she knows the lay of the land in North Carolina. Cunningham thinks he can win with his lawyer buddies and the DC elite.
Silver tooth devil?
March 11, 2010 - 1:46pm — ConMaxNo doubt Mr Silver is the dude that said his polls show the world would end in 2012 and he had a 77% chance to be out of a job......N&O! Where do you find these idiots?
Thats not at all what Silver said
March 11, 2010 - 1:31pm — benuskiIf you actually read that chart, you would see that Nate Silver said that Burr has a 77% chance of winning the election; however, he said that Burr would beat Marshall by about 6.3%, which would give Burr around 53% of the vote, not 77%.
'Whoa Nellie' thats a mighty big claim there...
March 11, 2010 - 12:20pm — BitterEXdemocratROFLMAO! If only we had a strong Independent to pick from...but Burr will do in this race...