More on Clinton and N.C. voters

Submitted by ryanteaguebeckwith on March 12, 2008 - 1:44pm.
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Hillary Clinton will campaign in North Carolina.

According to an analysis by the Associated Press, the Democratic presidential candidate expects Indiana, which also holds its primary on May 6, as the major battleground, while North Carolina will be more favorable to Barack Obama:

North Carolina's primary is also May 6, and Clinton officials expect Obama to win there because most of the state's Democratic voters are either black or very liberal. But they say she will compete there anyway to pick off delegates in congressional districts in the eastern and western parts of the state.

Dome thinks the statement that North Carolina Democrats are "either black or very liberal" to be questionable, but that could be the fault of the AP reporter, not Clinton.

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Re: More on Clinton and N.C. voters

Submitted by JohnHood on March 12, 2008 - 3:08pm.

Tom,

I think it's just because a certain number of respondents are passing on an ideological self-identification, and SUSA doesn't include an undecided/unsure number in its table.

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Re: More on Clinton and N.C. voters

Submitted by TomJensen on March 12, 2008 - 2:29pm.

Hey Liam,

Survey USA does an ideology breakdown. Their most recent poll showed the Democratic primary electorate as 19% conservative, 37% moderate, and 23% liberal. Not sure why it doesn't add up to 100 but gives you some idea of the relative proportions.

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Re: More on Clinton and N.C. voters

Submitted by liam on March 12, 2008 - 2:25pm.

That's a research error on the part of the AP, not the Clinton campaign I suspect.

Remember, Guy Cecil, Clinton's national political director, was Erskine Bowles' campaign manager in 2004. He knows the state as well as anyone. I suspect Clinton will do much better in this state than most people think.

As to the black and liberal comment, most NC blacks stay at home for the primary. And, although there are many liberal activist "latte-sippers" (as Senator Clinton calls them) that vote in the primary, there are many more blue collar and conservative Democrat primary voters across the state. Think about it, when was the last time a real progressive was nominated for statewide office?

Hey Tom or Dean, how about an ideological breakdown on your next survey?

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