Under the Dome

Miller seat rated most likely to flip in nation

Democratic Congressman Brad Miller's  House seat is the most likely congressional seat to turn over next year, according to the Washington Post's online political column, The Fix.

In handicapping the 10 House seats most likely to flip in 2012, the Post named the 13th as number one. That is because the legislature recently reconfigured the district from heavily Democratic to heavily Republican during the redistricting process.

“This is a very tough hold for Miller,” writes The Post.

The legislature drew Miller out of the district, and he is now considering the possibility of running for the 4th congressional seat now held by Democrat David Price, if legal challenges to the GOP plan fail.

Several Republicans have announced plans to run for the 13th including former Raleigh Mayor Paul Coble, who is chairman of the Wake County board of commissioners; former U.S. Attorney George Holding, and Bill Randall, who was the GOP candidate last year.

The 7th most likely congressional seat to turn over, according to The Fix  is the 7th district seat held by Democrat Larry Kissell, which has also been made more Republican by redistricting.

Republican state Reps Jerry Dockham and Justin Burr are considering running against Kissell.

The other most vulnerable seats are those held by 2) Republican Joe Wash of Illinois, 3) Republican Adam Kinzinger of Ilinois 4) Republican Bobby Schilling of Illinois 5) Republican David Dreier of California 6) Republican Bob Dold of Illinois 8) Democrat Mike Ross of Arkansas 9) Democrat Joe Donnelly of Indiana and 10) Democrat Dan Boren of Oklahoma.
     Here is one way to look at it. The North Carolina Republican legislators are keeping fast company. If you believe the Washington Post list, only the Illinois Democratic legislature did a better job of drawing their opponents out of congressional seats.

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