With the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee trying to recruit former state Sen. Cal Cunningham into the race, Elaine Marshall has issued a poll memorandum arguing why she would be a strong opponent of Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year.
The memo by her pollster, Celinda Lake, notes that in every poll taken this year, Burr has failed to gain majority support, Rob Christensen reports.
"Burr's reelection numbers are among the lowest in the nation with just one-fifth of the voters (21 percent) indicating their plans to support his reelection," writes Lake. The memo argues that Marshall, the Secretary of State who has announced her candidacy, is as strong in the polls as Congressman Bob Etheridge, who the senatorial committee had tried to recruit into the race. Etheridge announced last week that he would not be a candidate for the Senate.
"In sum," writes Lake, "Senator Burr is vulnerable. Voters have a net-unfavorable impression of him and a strong plurality is ready to vote for someone else. Secretary Marshall is well-liked and a strong competitor against Burr. Her record of service and her fund raising capabilities makes her the Democrat to beat in the race."
The memo does not mention Cunningham, the former state senator and Iraqi war veteran from Lexington, who the committee is trying to recruit into the race.
Comments
Re: Marshall pollster: Yes she can!
November 25, 2009 - 4:55pm — SaintPinehurstWhere are the "numbers" from the polls mentioned in this Dome post? Did no one buy 'em? Did Marshall pay for the PPP poll? What is it about Marshall (and Lewis, for that matter) that the DSCC doesn't like? Does the N&O ever ask any questions of their own, or just print press releases?
If the PPP numbers are right (big if - where are the crosstabs?), it sounds like there's a big difference between what North Carolina Democrats think/want and what the National Party thinks/wants.
I guess the DSCC wants someone they can boss around with their millions. Kinda like Kay.
Re: Marshall pollster: Yes she can!
November 25, 2009 - 12:08pm — oldwellblueConsider this from PPP:
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is in a very strong position to win the Democratic nomination for the US Senate from North Carolina next year. In fact she starts out in a considerably better place than Senator Kay Hagan did two years ago before her eventual 60-18 victory in the primary over Jim Neal.
Our polling finds Marshall begins the primary with an overwhelming lead, polling at 42% to 7% for Kenneth Lewis and 5% for Cal Cunningham. Her standing already exceeds the threshold for winning the nomination without a runoff.
For sake of comparison Hagan led Neal by only a 24-13 margin in November of 2007, and never polled as high as Marshall's current 42% standing until the weekend before the primary.
There are several factors that bode well for Marshall in these numbers:
-Marshall leads with every subgroup of the electorate along demographic lines, an indication she is likely to be successful regardless of the makeup of primary voters. She has a 39 point lead with men, a 37 point edge with whites, a 32 point lead with women, and a 29 point advantage with African Americans. Additionally she leads by at least 26 points in every section of the state.
-Among high information voters- those who have a favorable opinion of all three candidates- Marshall leads with 46% to 14% for Cunningham and 7% for Lewis. This is an indication that Marshall's early lead is not strictly a result of higher name recognition since she is strongly preferred even by voters who do know the other candidates.
In summary Marshall's 13 years of service in statewide office allow her to begin the primary campaign as the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination to take on Richard Burr. Polling has repeatedly shown Burr as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country for 2010 and already Democratic voters in the state are leaning strongly toward Marshall as the standard bearer they would like in making that challenge.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 667 likely Democratic primary voters on November 23rd and 24th. The survey's margin of error is +/-3.8%.
Re: Marshall pollster: Yes she can!
November 25, 2009 - 11:22am — domewatcherThe Democratic Party knows what it is doing. They can even wait until the last minute just like when they recruited Hagan. As I recall there was already another leading candidate in the race but for some reason the top Dems felt Kay would be better. I never could figure that out?
Re: :Marshall can't; Cal can
November 25, 2009 - 10:28am — politicalzooncI am so tired of candidates that have to be wooed. Cal Cunningham acts like he is doing us a favor by considering a run. Come on! I don't like Marshall but, she at least wants the job.
Re: DSCC Disappoints with lack of support for Marshall
November 25, 2009 - 10:20am — oldwellblueRuffle any feathers?!?! Why does every candidate have to be the one to ruffle feathers? I want someone with experience. Maybe the best way to get things done is to NOT ruffle any feathers. Elaine Marshall has all of the characteristics of a great legislator - and the characteristics of a person who can win in November against Richard Burr. I am tired of the DSCC trolling around weakening a great candidate. Stop pushing people into the race and get behind the person that actually wants to win it - and is not afraid to jump in with both feet!
:Marshall can't; Cal can
November 25, 2009 - 10:19am — Isaac136I have nothing against Ms. Marshall, but she is unlikely to engage voter interest. Cal Cunningham seems to have the kind of energy that is needed for this campaign -- but he'd better get in there and start swinging.
Re: DSCC Disappoints with lack of support for Marshall
November 25, 2009 - 10:17am — imastewartUnfortunately, I have to disagree that Elaine is the best candidate. She hasn't really caught traction with the core of the Democratic party around North Carolina. She is not the type of candidate that will go up to DC and ruffle any feathers.
DSCC Disappoints with lack of support for Marshall
November 25, 2009 - 10:08am — oldwellblueI am still baffled by the DSCC's lack of support for Elaine Marshall. Ms. Marshall is a seasoned North Carolina politician who has been re-elected repeatedly to both legislative and executive positions. She is a true trailblazer for women in North Carolina and she has proven her ability to raise money through an established network of supporters.
Why won't the DSCC stop their search for the perfect candidate when the perfect candidate has already declared. Elaine Marshall has the experience, leadership characteristics, and fundraising ability to be our next Senator.
Re: Marshall pollster: Yes she can!
November 20, 2009 - 8:11am — MalleusMaleficarumNo, she can't. Although Marshall is well-accepted in her current office, she trails Burr in the polls. Since Marshall is such a well-known public official, it is unlikely that she can improve on her numbers even with a vigorous campaign. On the other hand, Cal Cunningham is scarcely known in the state, and he can skyrocket in the polls after he launches a vigorous campaign. The DSCC better start courting Cunningham very seriously if they want to defeat Burr next November.