How would Obama do in N.C.?

Submitted by ryanteaguebeckwith on February 28, 2008 - 4:45pm.
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Ralph CampbellHow would Barack Obama do in North Carolina?

An undergraduate thesis at UNC-Chapel Hill from 2005 by Raleigh Democratic pollster Tom Jensen suggests some reasons why he might not do well.

After doing regression analyses of 20 statewide black candidates between 2001 and 2004, Jensen concluded that race was not "statistically significant" when compared to incumbency, previous experience and party affiliation.

Still, he found that North Carolina was the state where race was "most significant."

His research was based on Ralph Campbell's narrow loss to Les Merritt in the state auditor's race in 2004.

He estimated a white Democratic incumbent would get approximately 55.5 percent of the vote, so Campbell's race had a 5.9 percent negative impact. (Merritt received 50.4 percent; Campbell, 49.6 percent.)

"This made the difference in denying Campbell reelection, while his fellow white incumbents were all reelected, usually easily," he said. "The only variable with a larger negative impact on candidate success in North Carolina is having no political experience."



Document(s):
Jensen-Thesis.pdf

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Re: How would Obama do in N.C.?

Submitted by FFC1304 on February 28, 2008 - 8:07pm.

People know about Ralph Campbell's infamous brotha, Bill, the prisoned former mayor of the ATL...whatta crook Bill Campbell was!!! Got run OUT of the ATL on a rail to jail! Even Willie Gary couldnt save him!!! What a bunch of crooks!!!

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Re: How would Obama do in N.C.?

Submitted by TomJensen on February 28, 2008 - 8:02pm.

Chris,

Campbell ran behind all the white Democratic incumbents (and many first time candidates too) in both 1996 and 2000 as well before there were trumped up charges of corruption against him.

I think many more voters were aware of his race than the non issue scandal allegations that were brought up against him right in advance of the 2004 election. And unfortunately I think his race cost him enough votes to lose his seat in 2004.

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Re: How would Obama do in N.C.?

Submitted by cthayes75 on February 28, 2008 - 5:56pm.

I think corruption had a bigger role than race in the defeat of Ralph Campbell.

Seriously, do we really think that many people know what race Ralph Campbell is? Is not like he was a US Senate candidate.

The other factor to consider is Les Merritt appears under the name "Leslie" Merritt quite often.

So the 5% bump for Merritt could be a gender gap and not a racial issue.

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Re: How would Obama do in N.C.?

Submitted by TomJensen on February 28, 2008 - 4:54pm.

At the same time it is worth noting that Barack Obama is getting a positive response from white voters in a way that's virtually unprecedented for a major black candidate. For instance PPP's Ohio and Texas polls have shown crossover Republicans voting in the Democratic primary choosing Obama at incredibly high rates.

Still, at least for the 2001-2004 election cycle, race did appear to have a bigger negative impact for Ralph Campbell than it did for any other black statewide candidate in the country.

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