Burr race ranked 10 of 15


The FiveThirtyEight blog ranks U.S. Sen. Richard Burr's seat as the 10th most likely to change parties in next year's election.

That's up one from August's ranking of 11. The blog, which analyzes polling data to make predictions, says the ground hasn't shifted much in any of the Senate races in the last month.

Elaine Marshall has entered the race and trails Richard Burr, but Burr's numbers are well below 50 percent.

Keep in mind that 10th place out of the 15 seats that are in play next year isn't exactly a winning ranking.

And exactly which Democrat will challenge Burr in November is not a settled question.

The Asheville Citizen Times reports that the hopeful candidates, Marshall, Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis will be working the room at this weekend's Vance-Aycock dinner, an annual gathering of party faithful.

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Re: Burr race ranked 10 of 15

Since the N&O doesn’t actually do actual reporting anymore and only posts what other people post on their blogs, I thought I would add this from Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report:

"And Democratic hopes of knocking off the two GOP incumbents who might be vulnerable - Sens. David Vitter in Louisiana and Richard Burr in North Carolina - appear to be slim and diminishing. It's not very likely that many Republican incumbents will lose re-election in the South these days. If Vitter behaves himself and Burr very visibly hits every county a couple times in the next year, Democrats have virtually no chance in either state."

How about doing a blog post on what Charlie Cook posted. Oh wait, that might make Burr look good and we know the N&O doesn’t want that.

Re: Burr race ranked 10 of 15

I wonder if it only jumped one spot because there isn't yet a powerful, dynamic and grassroots powered candidate in there yet... like, say, Cal Cunningham?

It appears as if Cal has kept his nose down, met with the right people (I saw him, Grier Martin, John Kerry and other veterans pop up in photos yesterday at the Senate Climate Change Bill unveiling) and really consolidated his base of support and campaign structure so that he can move into this race forcefully and at his own pace.

Again, these may just be my wild delusions, but seeing the race move up a spot is still positive. Because no one has really come out and started exposing Burr for the right wing ideologue and predator to North Carolina' middle class that he is - yet - I feel we still have a ways to go to reinforce (at least to the DC folks) that this race IS going to flip and that NC will go even Blue-er in 2010.

As we all saw Chris Christie's negatives sky rocket this past month (in the New Jersey Governor's race) and Corzine close in (though, still, he has a lot of work to do with so many disenfranchised voters), we at least learn that people are not going to vote for folks who do not honestly work towards their well being and who put their personal interests (and wallets) above their constituents'. Once people get to know Burr - and, at present, they don't - they will see how rotten and unproductive he has been on behalf of all North Carolinians. And I think they will be smart enough to respond by kicking him out of office!

Re: Burr race ranked 10 of 15

Burr is clearly in danger of losing his seat. Remember, that Burr came into office in 2004 -- a year of Republican success predicated on 9/11 and an opposition that was badly in disarray - John Kerry voted for the war before he voted against it. That said, the Democrats must select a top-quality candidate who will take the fight to Burr who was one of the strongest supporters of the failed and discredited policies of Bush-Cheney. Let's not forget that Burr panicked and ordered his wife and family to run to the ATMs to extract the maximum amounts of cash during the meltdown. This race should be interesting -- and Burr should be booted out by a competent opponent.