Under the Dome

Blog sees Burr seat seen as vulnerable

The FiveThirtyEight blog ranks Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr's seat as the 11th most likely to change parties in next year's Senate elections.

The blog, which analyzes polling data, reports that Republicans are now more likely to gain seats than lose seats in next year's elections. Burr's seat ranks 11 of 15 on the blog's August ranking in likelihood that it would change party. That's an improvement for Burr, whose seat was listed by the blog as seventh most likely to change parties in May. 

Citing analysis by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver says that Burr's low-name recognition and low approval numbers suggest that his chances will depend on whether the election is an anti-incumbent year. 

That may be especially true since the Democrats are still scrambling to find a credible challenger to Burr. Rob Christensen reports that Democrats are "going through an awkward dance to find a candidate to go toe-to-toe with Burr in 2010."

"There is a vacuum," said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist in Raleigh. "Nobody has really stepped in to fill it, nobody with the name or the money or the backing to put an end to all of this."

So the list of potential Democratic candidates continues to grow. There are little-known figures such as former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Lexington, Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis and Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy who seem eager to jump into the race.

And there are potential candidates who are better known, but seem less sure. They include U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge of Lillington, former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker of Sanford, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall of Lillington.


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Re: Blog sees Burr seat seen as vulnerable

Aw, come on bitterEXdem, you know that all Democrats are inherently qualified to tell us how to live our lives...

Re: Blog sees Burr seat seen as vulnerable

There is NO democrat qualified to do one bit better than Burr...not one.

Re: Blog sees Burr seat seen as vulnerable

Night_hunter's analysis is correct.

Burr being the biggest waste of tax payer money that ever hit DC does not make him vulnerable.

We do. The only poll that matters comes in 2010.

Re: Blog sees Burr seat seen as vulnerable

My analysis is that you people are full of hot air! Until the Democrats announce who is running for the seat in opposition to Burr, there isn't enough info to even provide a wild guess as to the outcome of the 2010 election. Most of the "analysis" seems to be wishful thinking on the part of the Democrat pundits. How about quit wasting bandwidth!

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