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Republican Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry runs even with Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in a new poll.

Berry and Hagan are tied at 45 percent in a potential 2014 match-up, according to a survey conducted by Public Policy polling, a Democratic leaning firm based in Raleigh.

In the GOP primary to be held next May, Congresswoman Virginia Foxx(15 percent) is in a virtual tie with Berry (14 percent.)” Following them is Senate leader Phil Berger and Congresswoman Renee Ellmers, each with 10 percent, physician Greg Bannon with 7 percent, House Speaker Thom Tillis with 6 percent, former ambassador Jim Cain with 4 percent, Mark Harris and Lynn Wheeler each with 3 percent.

None of the potential Republican candidates are very well known across the state, according to the poll.

North Carolina's U.S. Senate race is trending more safely in Kay Hagan's direction compared to the other competitive contests in 2014, according to one pundit.

The Washington Post's Fix blog now ranks the race No. 6 in a list of those most likely to switch parties. (No. 1 is the most likely.)

The N.C. race ranked No. 4 in March. And Hagan, a freshman who rode into office on the 2008 Obama ticket, isn't looking like the most vulnerable incumbent, either. Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas earns that designation, Fix says, ranking the race No. 3. The top two races are open seats.

Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan continues to lead all of her potential GOP opponents, with Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry remaining her strongest opponent, according to a new poll.

Hagan would beat Berry by a 46-41 percent margin, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm based in Raleigh.

Hagan would defeat Congresswoman Renee Ellmers by a 48-40 margin and Congresswoman Virginia Foxx and stateSenate leader Phil Berger by a 48-39 percent margin, according to the po9ll. She would defeat House Speaker Thom Tillis by a 49-39 percent margin and Cary physician Greg Brannon by a 49-36 percent margin.

The poll shows that Hagan has lost little support since she announced her support for gay marriage. Her job approval was 39 percent and disapproval was 37 percent,

In the Republican primary, the field is wide open. Berry leads among GOP voters with 18 percent followed by Foxx with 13 percent, Ellmers with 12 percent, Berger with 11 percent, Tillis with 7 percent, Brannon with 6 percent and 1 percent for Terry Embler.

The survey of 601 voters was conducted April 11-14 and had a margin of error of 4 percent. The subset of 468 Republican voters for the primary question had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The bill appeared fast-tracked but had a rough go in its first of several committee meetings. Gov. Pat McCrory has said he expects the bill to undergo some changes.

The bill's sponsor, Rep. Mike Hager, R-Rutherford, has ran into some opposition to the bill in his own backyard. The Daily Courier reports that the town manager of Lake Lure has written a letter to Hager explaining that the town's finances would be hurt by the bill because the dam at Lake Lure produces renewable energy that it sells back to Duke Energy under the current law. The town made $425,000 in 2010 though the amount varies. The funds are used for upkeep of the old dam.

TODAY AT THE STATEHOUSE: Lawmakers return this evening with both the House and Senate convening at 7 p.m.

WHERE'S GOV. PAT?:Gov. Pat McCrory visits GlaxoSmithKline in Research Triangle Park. The visit is closed to the press and public.

***Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading the Dome Morning Memo. A roundup of North Carolina political news and analysis below.***

GOV. MCCRORY PROMISES BIG CHANGES COMING: Days after releasing a modest state budget and weeks after a tepid State of the State address, Republican Gov. Pat McCrory is promsing big things. "Now we're moving into policy," he told a Chamber crowd Wednesday. The News-Record hits the highlights of what we should expect: "McCrory said the state Department of Transportation will be “revamping” how it finances and distributes money. ... McCrory said he’ll have “major announcements on Medicaid reform” next week, and that his administration is “completely revamping” the state’s commerce department. ... He said his tax plan should be ready within weeks and reaffirmed a desire to cut income and corporate tax rates to the lower levels of neighboring states. ... He said major announcements are coming on the state’s job recruitment efforts at the N.C. Department of Commerce, which new director Sharon Decker said last week may privatize many of its functions."

TODAY AT THE STATEHOUSE: The Senate convenes at 11 a.m. to hear a Mecklenburg property tax measure. The House meets at noon to hear a bill to repeal taxpayer funded judicial elections and another bill that favors Blue Cross Blue Shield. At the Capitol, McCrory and Public Safety Secretary Kieran Shanahan will announce at 10 a.m. the new Highway Patrol commander, Alcohol Law Enforcement director and State Capitol Police chief at a swearing-in ceremony.

Also on the political calendar: Mayors Against Illegal Guns is promoting a day of action to push its background-check legislation; a group of area university and college professors host a 5 p.m. forum at Duke University titled, "Save Our State: Scholars Speak Out on North Carolina's New Direction"; and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush appears at Guilford College for a 7:30 p.m. event with former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley, hosted by PBS's Gwen Ifill. This is likely Bush's his first visit to the state since the release of his book and open talk about running for president in 2016.

***Good morning! Happy "Friday" to state employees with tomorrow's holiday. Thanks for reading the Dome Morning Memo -- the source for North Carolina political news. Send tips and news to dome@newsobserver.com. More headlines below.***

"Another month, another frontrunner" -- that's how Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen described the latest U.S. Senate numbers in North Carolina.

As previewed in the Morning Memo, Lt. Gov. Dan Forest leads the potential GOP field with 18 percent, according to the March poll from the Democratic firm. When Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry landed at the top of the heap in February poll, she went public saying she was looking at the U.S. Senate race. Forest? His office has yet to return a message from early this morning seeking comment. Even though he narrowly squeaked out a victory in November, his political views would put him in a good position for a GOP primary. (See the full PPP results here.)

U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan ranks in the ideological middle, according to the latest rankings from the National Journal. The Democrat, who faces re-election in 2014, ranks the 48th most liberal of the 100 senators, or 52 most conservative, depending on how you look at it.

Her Republican counterpart U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is the 23rd most conservative member in the chamber, the nonpartisan national political magazine found. National Journal ranked the lawmakers on 116 votes that showed differences in ideological viewpoint in the 112th Congress.

Among Democrats in the House, Congressman David Price is the most liberal at No. 32, followed by Mel Watt (45), former U.S. Rep. Brad Miller (83), G.K. Butterfield (121). On the Republican side, former U.S. Rep. Sue Myrick was the 32nd most conservative, followed by Reps. Renee Ellmers (43), Virginia Foxx (55), Patrick McHenry (62), Howard Coble (153) and Walter Jones (242).

Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx says North Carolina Democrats are preparing for a major battle in defending Sen. Kay Hagan's seat in 2014.

“It's gonna be one of the biggest Senate race in the country,” Foxx told POLITICO this weekend while in Washington to attend the inaugural. “And that's going to be a fight.''

North Carolina Democrats took a drubbing on election day.

“I think it's incumbent on North Carolina Democrats to do what national Republicans are doing, which is to huddle up and figure out what happened and to think about what the implications are and what happened and to think about what the implications are and what needs to happen going forward to build a case for progressive politics in North Carolina.''

North Carolina voters are divided about Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, but she leads any of prospective Republican opponents, according to a new poll.

Only 34 percent of voters approve of the job that Hagan is doing, while 36 percent disapprove, and 31 percent have no opinion, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm based in Raleigh.

But Hagan leads all potential opponents. She leads GOP Congresswoman Renee Ellmers by a 46-40 percent margin, Congressman Patrick McHenry by a 45-39 percent margin, and Congresswoman Virginia Foxx by a 47-40 percent margin.

She also leads Congressman George Holding by a 45-37 percent margin, Congressman Robert Pittenger by a 46-38 percent margin, state Senate leader Phil Berger by a 47-38 percent margin, and state House Speaker Thom Tillis by a 47-37 percent margin.

Politico has called Sen. Kay Hagan one of the most vulnerable Democrats seeking re-election in 2014.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia agrees, and he offered the following explanation why:

Incumbency doesn’t mean much in Tar Heel Senate contests, which means that Sen. Kay Hagan (D) was always going to be vulnerable. As if to underline that, she occupies a seat in one of only two states (Indiana is the other) to switch back to the Republicans after supporting Barack Obama in 2008. House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) is a possible challenger, and the U.S. House delegation is overflowing with possible GOP opponents, too.

Rep. Renee Ellmers name is one of those possible Congressional challengers, and state Senate leader Phil Berger's name has also been rumored