Voting

Young voter registration still lags

ryanteaguebeckwith — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:31:24 -0400

Nearly one-fourth of college-age students are not registered to vote.

A new report from the Young Voters Index found that 200,000 citizens aged 18 to 25 still have not registered, even though about 90,000 new registrations have been recorded since January.

In all 23 percent of young adults have not registered, compared to less than 20 percent of adults over the age of 25.

"Young people are participating more than they did four years ago, but they still have tremendous potential to do so much more," said Bob Hall, executive director of Democracy North Carolina.

About 134,000 young people voted during the May primary — four times as many as in 2004. But the rate of participation for young people was the lowest of any age group.

Many state universities have early voting sites where students can register and vote on the same day. (N&O)

El Pueblo plans Hispanic voter outreach

ryanteaguebeckwith — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 10:37:52 -0400

El Pueblo plans to reach out to Hispanic voters.

The longtime Latino advocacy group is one of 25 groups around the country to receive a grant from the National Council of La Raza for voter outreach ahead of the Nov. 4 elections.

"This type of outreach is critical to increasing the influence and strength of this underserved population in this year's, and future, elections," said advocacy director Irene Godinez in a statement. "Our goal is to make sure that everyone in our community who is eligible acts, participates, and votes."

El Pueblo is training young workers on registration drives and plans outreach efforts in the coming months, including at La Fiesta del Pueblo on Sept. 6-7 at the N.C. State Fairgrounds.

According to the State Board of Elections, slighty less than 1 percent of registered voters were listed as Hispanic as of Aug. 9, although Hispanics made up 6.7 percent of the population in the 2006 Census.

Voter registration in black and white

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:50:01 -0400

Voter registration is growing at a faster rate in the black community.

According to data reported on Aug. 2 by the State Board of Elections, there are currently 1,224,545 registered voters who are black, compared to 1,114,798 on Election Day in 2004.

That's an increase of 109,747, or 9.8 percent.

Meantime, there are currently 4,421,919 registered voters who are white, compared to 4,226,473 on Election Day in 2004.

That's an increase of 195,446, or 4.6 percent.

Those numbers put black voters at about 20 percent of the electorate and white voters at about 75 percent, roughly where they were in 2004.

That's also a little below the 23 percent threshold of black voters that Barack Obama would need to win North Carolina based on current polls.

Still, voter registration is not a good indicator of turnout. Historically, black voters have turned out at a lower rate in North Carolina, making their percentage of actual voters a few points below their percentage of the electorate.

Document(s):
Elections-96-04.xls

Some quick math on turnout

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:26:29 -0400

Barack Obama needs to do better among white voters to win.

Some back-of-the-envelope math here at Dome headquarters shows that Obama will have a hard time getting a winning percentage in North Carolina based only on black turnout.

As Tom Jensen has argued, Obama would need black voters to be 23 percent of the electorate to beat McCain based on his current polling numbers.

If Obama boosted black turnout by 30 percent — as he has claimed he can — that would put the number of black voters at about 865,000.

That is 23 percent of about 3.76 million voters. Subtract the 50,000 to 100,000 North Carolina voters who are neither black or white, and you get about 2.8 million white voters.

Coincidentally, that's roughly how many white voters showed up at the polls in 2004.

In other words, Obama would have to boost black turnout by the maximum number he's said he can reach while the number of white voters remained the same as four years ago for him to win, based on current polls.

It's safe to say that's pretty unlikely.

What's happened with white turnout?

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:04:19 -0400

White voters have come to the polls at different rates than black voters.

While black turnout jumped by 25 to 30 percent in the last two presidential elections in North Carolina, white turnout went up by a smaller percentage.

In the 2000 election, white turnout went up by 379,000 voters, or about 19 percent, from the previous presidential election. In 2004, it went up by 412,000 voters, or about 17 percent.

Though that's smaller on a percentage basis, it's a larger number of actual voters.

That means that despite the gains in black voters, they still remain a small percentage of the voting population: 16.7 percent in 1996, 17.3 percent in 2000 and 18.6 percent in 2004.

Earlier this week, Democratic pollster Tom Jensen calculated that black voters would need to be around 23 percent of the people at the polls for Barack Obama to pull ahead of John McCain.

A big question mark remains: How many white voters will show up on Election Day?

Obama could boost black turnout by 30 percent and still fall short if white turnout goes up as well, even if it's by a much smaller percentage.

Obama and the black turnout question

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:09:12 -0400

How much will Barack Obama boost black turnout?

That question lies at the heart of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee's campaign to win North Carolina's electoral votes.

At a campaign rally in August, Obama said that he could boost turnout among black voters by 25 to 30 percent — enough, he argued, to put states like North Carolina in play.

"I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum," he said, according to USA Today. "Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."

That sounds like a tall order, but it's happened before. In the 2000 election, black turnout went up by more than 100,000, or about 25 percent, from the 1996 campaign. And in 2004, black turnout went up again by 154,000, or about 30 percent.

To make a similar jump this year, black turnout would have to go up by 166,000 to 200,000 voters.

After the jump, the raw numbers.

Bartlett frustrated by audit pace

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:32:52 -0400

North Carolina's top elections official expressed frustration Monday at the pace of an ongoing review by State Auditor Les Merritt's office.

Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said the auditor's examination of the state's voter rolls has become a distraction.

Merritt's office began its review in January 2007. It has not released any results, David Ingram reports.

"They're continually holding it open so they can try to find something. They need to get their work done so we can have an election," Bartlett said. "We have done everything they have asked us to do."

State lawmakers chided Merritt, a Republican, a year ago for using preliminary results to delay a bill related to voter registration.

Bartlett, a Democratic appointee, said Monday that he expected a conclusion to the review soon after that legislative hearing.

"The auditor came to me, shook my hand and asked that we work together to come to a completion on this. I gave him my word that we would work together in any way possible," Bartlett said. "Since then, it has been one-sided."

More after the jump.

Merritt still checking voter rolls

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 08:46:20 -0400

State Auditor Les Merritt's office continues to review North Carolina's voter rolls, more than a year after state lawmakers chided him during a packed committee hearing.

The review became public in June 2007, when Merritt advised senators to delay action on a bill to allow voter registration up to three days before an election, David Ingram reports.

Merritt, a Republican, said he had preliminary findings about potential fraud, which state election officials disputed and some Democrats called partisan.

Sen. Dan Clodfelter, a Charlotte Democrat, called Merritt before a Senate committee to explain himself. The bill later became law.

Merritt's spokesman Chris Mears said this week that auditors are still looking for possible irregularities in who has voted or registered to vote.

"We think that it would be after November for sure before we released any report," Mears said, citing the upcoming election. "We wouldn't want our report to be used in any way political."

Merritt is running for re-election against Democrat Beth Wood.

Dean speaks at Raleigh headquarters

ryanteaguebeckwith — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:26:10 -0400

Democratic National Committee head Howard Dean said North Carolina will not be ignored.

Speaking in front of a crowd of about 100 at the state Democratic headquarters in Raleigh this morning, the former Vermont governor said that the party will reach out "to a lot of people that we haven't reached out to in a long time."

"The Democratic Party has changed a lot in 30 years, and so has the South," he said. "There is no reason for us ever to pass over a state anywhere."

The 15-minute speech was part of a "Register for Change" tour to boost presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama as well as gubernatorial nominee Beverly Perdue and Senate nominee Kay Hagan.

Touring the state in a biodiesel-fueled bus, Dean will also make stops in Greensboro and Charlotte today, aimed at signing up volunteers for voter registration efforts here.

The chairman of the Republican National Committee is expected to come in the next few weeks.

Dean, who has led a "50-state strategy" aimed at building the party around the country, told reporters afterward that the party will have a "significant effort" in North Carolina, but he would not give specifics.

"I think you'll see us play here heavily," he said.

School calendar bill gutted, sent back

ryanteaguebeckwith — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:14:38 -0400

Rep. Marvin Lucas isn't sure if he's going to vote for his own bill.

When the Cumberland County Democrat first filed House Bill 359 in February of 2007, it was entitled a bill to "Restore Flexibility to School Calendar."

As it was then written, the bill would give local school boards back the power to start and end the school year when they wanted. A previous bill, backed by the tourism industry, had set the start date as no earlier than Aug. 25.

Lucas, a former teacher and principal, said that means some school districts hold finals after the winter break, which is not ideal for students.

The bill passed the House in April of 2007, but when it came back from the Senate this week all mentions of school calendars had been stripped. The new title: "An Act to Promote American Citizenship Efforts by Encouraging Voting by Eligible High School Students."

"It's been gutted," Lucas said. "It no longer bears any resemblance to the one we sent over."

He said he'll have to read the bill to see what's in it before he decides whether to vote to concur with the Senate version this afternoon.