John Davis

Basnight's potshot

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 11:32:49 -0500

"Long shot? It weren't even a shot."

— Senate leader Marc Basnight on a prediction by political consultant John Davis that Republicans had a "long shot" chance at taking the Senate this year. Democrats lost only one seat. Quoted in the Greensboro News-Record on Nov. 10, 2008.

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Davis: Business will man up to labor

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:20:34 -0500

While labor made gains in North Carolina this year, big business got a little less organized.

At the same time that the SEIU and SEANC were playing a stronger role in state elections, the biggest advocacy group for corporate interests essentially disbanded.

But John Davis, the former head of N.C. FREE, said that doesn't mean business is any less powerful.

"Business still has the upper hand in this state," said Davis, now an independent consultant. "I think what you're seeing with labor is the beginnings of them becoming a serious player in North Carolina. They're a serious player at the state legislative level, but I think you're going to see them grow exponentially."

As head of N.C. FREE for 23 years, Davis said he didn't see labor spending begin in earnest here until the 2004 and 2006 elections, in part because of the growing role of so-called 527 groups, which can run independent political campaigns.

He cited SEIU's contributions to FairJudges.net in 2006 and to the Alliance for North Carolina this year as evidence of their growing role. While N.C. FREE is not around to represent business interests, he said groups like the N.C. Chamber may play a larger role, as will ad hoc groups like the one that opposed the transfer tax.

"I don't expect business to do anything but man up to labor," he said. "They have the resources to do battle politically, and they'll find some way to do it."

Rankings on the Senate race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:13:59 -0500

Analysts think the Senate race is Kay Hagan's to lose.

A quick survey of the major political observers in the days leading up to the election show that they either rank the race as a toss-up or say it favors Hagan slightly:

N.C. consultant John Davis: Hagan win

UNC-Chapel Hill prof Leroy Towns: Hagan win

Democratic consultant Gary Pearce: Hagan win

Winston-Salem Journal managing editor Ken Otterbourg: Hagan win

Liberal N.C. blogger Kirk Ross: Hagan win

Conservative N.C. blogger Dan Gearino: Hagan win

Magic Eight Ball: Hagan win

Five Thirty Eight: Likely Democrat

Washington Post: Sixth Most Likely to Switch Parties

Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Hagan

University of Virginia prof Larry Sabato: Leans Democrat

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

New York Times: Toss-up

MSNBC's Chuck Todd: Nailbiter

N.C. State politics prof Andy Taylor: Dole win

Rankings on the presidential race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 08:00:53 -0500

Analysts say North Carolina is a presidential toss-up.

A quick survey of the major political observers in the days leading up to the election shows an even split, with several refusing to predict:

Liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas: Obama by seven points

Republican strategist Ed Rollins: Obama by three points

Newsweek editor Eleanor Clift: Obama by three points

Talk show host Bill Maher: Obama by three points

Arianna Huffington: Obama by two points

Roll Call editor Mort Kondracke: Obama by one point

Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver: Obama by 0.6 of a point

Liberal N.C. blogger Kirk Ross: Obama by 0.5 to 1.5 points

University of Virginia prof Larry Sabato: Obama win

Republican firm CAJ Consultants: Obama win

N.C. consultant Gary Pearce: Obama win

UNC-Chapel Hill prof Leroy Towns: Obama win

N.C. consultant John Davis: Obama win

Conservative N.C. blogger Dan Gearino: Obama win

Facing South's Chris Kromm: Leans Obama

Conservative columnist George F. Will: Obama win "not startling"

Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up

Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

New York Times: Toss-up

MSNBC's Chuck Todd: Nailbiter

Magic Eight Ball: McCain win

Winston-Salem Journal editor Ken Otterbourg: McCain win

Republican consultant Karl Rove: McCain win

N.C. consultant Carter Wrenn: McCain win

N.C. State politics prof Andy Taylor: McCain win

Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza: McCain by two points

Politico editor Charles Mahtesian: McCain by two points

"Hardball" host Chris Matthews: McCain by two points

NPR analyst Juan Williams: McCain by two points

U.S. Sen. Richard Burr: McCain by three to six points

Red State editor Erick Erickson: McCain by three points

Conservative blogger Ed Morrissey: McCain by three points

Conservative editor Fred Barnes: McCain by five points

Rankings on the governor's race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 09:54:31 -0500

Analysts don't know who will win the governor's race.

A quick survey of local and national political observers in the days leading up to the election shows that there's little agreement beyond the fact that it's a close race:

N.C. State politics prof Andy Taylor: Perdue win

Democratic consultant Gary Pearce: Perdue win

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat

Cook Political Report: "Toss-up"

Rothenberg Political Report: "Toss-up"

MSNBC's Chuck Todd: "Nailbiter"

Washington Post: "Third Most Likely to Switch Parties"

N.C. consultant John Davis: McCrory win

UNC-Chapel Hill prof Leroy Towns: McCrory win

Davis: Obama will win N.C.

ryanteaguebeckwith — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:10:28 -0400

John Davis says Barack Obama will win North Carolina.

The freelance political consultant and former president of N.C. FREE argues in an Oct. 21 newsletter that the Democratic presidential candidate will win because of an anti-incumbent mood, an unprecedent organization and massive fundraising.

The Barack Obama candidacy for U.S. President, built upon a foundation of voter anger, has become one of the great success stories in American history; successful in great part due to his adeptness at navigating political turbulence. Obama has also capitalized on the other force in 2008 politics: generational change. Obama is 46 years old, McCain is 73. Expecting a 23-year-old new voter to vote for a 73-year-old candidate is like expecting a 60-year-old voter to vote for a candidate who is 110 years old.

He adds that the next oldest presidents were Ronald Reagan and William Henry Harrison, who died after a month in office.

N.C. FREE shakes up leadership

DavidIngram — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 09:00:01 -0400

John Davis is no longer listed as the executive director of N.C. FREE.

After leading the business-backed research group for 23 years, Davis is working on contract as a political consultant for the group, its Web site says. The change in leadership follows several months of turbulence at N.C. FREE, including the departure of some of its biggest dues-paying members.

N.C. FREE lists Ron Ottavio as its interim executive director. Ottavio worked for Wachovia for 33 years before retiring. He spent his last six years managing the company's lobbying efforts in 16 states, and he was a registered lobbyist in Raleigh.

Ottavio also serves on the board of N.C. FREE's sister group in Virginia. Neither Davis nor Ottavio returned messages Monday from Dome.

N.C. FREE has long been known for its analysis and handicapping of N.C. elections, particularly elections for the General Assembly. Some members of the business community use the information to help decide where to contribute money.

Some businesses leaving N.C. FREE

ryanteaguebeckwith — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 06:58:06 -0400

Some of North Carolina's largest corporations have pulled their support of N.C. FREE.

The decisions followed a dispute over the mission of the influential Raleigh-based group, which is best known for its analysis of state election trends. In recent years, it has also tried to raise money and recruit pro-business candidates.

John Davis, the president of N.C. FREE, said the effort to elect more business leaders represents a return to the group's mission in the 1980s, but the effort has alienated some Democrats, who have majorities in the state House and Senate, as well as lobbyists and large companies.

The companies are concerned that the campaign efforts could become partisan, and they don't want to alienate powerful incument Democrats.

Spokesmen for Bank of America, Duke Energy and Wachovia confirmed Thursday that their companies have either canceled or not renewed their memberships. At least a dozen companies have left N.C. FREE in recent months. (Char-O)

More on down-ballot winds

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 11:46:54 -0400

Stateline says Barack Obama may affect down-ballot races here.

In a story today, the legislative Web site writes that the presumptive Democratic nominee has an "outside possibility" of winning North Carolina in November, but he may have more of an effect on down-ballot races by boosting turnout.

With an open race for governor, lieutenant governor, U.S. senator, legislative and Congressional seats and eight other statewide posts, North Carolina has the most races of any Southern state on the ballot.

Even though only three out of four Democratic primary voters also voted in down-ballot races as well, the Democratic turnout was three times as high as in the Republican primary.

"Obama's impact down-ballot will be huge for Democrats, if he is able to sustain his momentum," John Davis, president of the North Carolina Forum for Research and Economic Education, told Stateline.

The site argues that the biggest effect will be in the gubernatorial race between Beverly Perdue and Pat McCrory and the Senate race between Kay Hagan and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Still, it says that Obama could also hurt Democrats in Western Carolina and other predominantly white areas where he did poorly against Hillary Clinton.

Hat Tip: Chris Kromm

McCrory: I'm agent of change

ryanteaguebeckwith — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 16:12:04 -0400

Pat McCrory is picking up the mantle of change.

In a speech at the state Republican convention in Greensboro today, the gubernatorial nominee received one of the loudest ovations as he called himself "a change agent" in his race against Democratic nominee Beverly Perdue, Jim Morrill reports.

"We have been governed for the past decade by the good ole boy politics of Gov. (Mike) Easley and Lt. Gov. Perdue," he said. "I want to change the culture."

John Davis, president of the pro-business group NCFREE, said McCrory and Obama could appeal to many of the same kind of voters: newcomers, urban, young and ready for change.

"It's not a party thing," he said. "It's an anti-establishment, a 'pox-on-both-your-houses,' general change-voter driving this election year."

Alan Pugh, the GOP chairman in Randolph County, agreed.

"So for those who understand the dynamics of the election, these are the ones that are positive," he said. "The ones that are negative are those sitting around listening to the 24-hour news channels."