Public Policy Polling comes closest

ryanteaguebeckwith — Wed, 07 May 2008 11:56:35 -0400

Public Policy Polling had the best numbers on the presidential race.

According to a "pollster report card" by rival SurveyUSA, the Raleigh-based Democratic firm came the closest to the actual 56-42 win by Barack Obama.

Public Policy Polling had predicted a 53-43 win, the closest any pollster came to Obama's percentage, though several other companies came closer on the margin of victory. (Civitas predicted an 18-point margin, but its numbers were much older.)

Under SurveyUSA's ranking system, which eludes our complete understanding, Public Policy Polling came out on top among 10 pollsters working on the North Carolina primary.

It beat out Zogby International, Rasmussen Reports and Research 2000 for the honor.

Obama 51, Clinton 37

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 06 May 2008 06:47:41 -0400

Barack Obama has a 14-point lead in the final poll before today's primary.

According to a two-day tracking poll of 643 likely primary election voters by Zogby International, Obama had 51 percent, followed by Hillary Clinton at 37 percent. Four percent said they were backing someone else.

Recent polls had shown a much narrower race, but Zogby also pushed undecided voters to commit to a candidate, which may account for the difference.

The poll predicts African-American turnout to be around 32 percent. Zogby also noted that Obama did even better among the 30 percent in the survey who had already cast ballots at early voting sites, winning them 57 to 34 percent.

The live operator poll was conducted on May 4-5. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.