exit polls

Exit poll on governor's race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:11:14 -0500

More from the AP exit poll on the governor's race:

In the governor’s race, Democratic Beverly Perdue also drew support from younger voters and women. Her challenger, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, was running well with older voters and those making more than $50,000 a year.

Exit poll: 11 percent new voters

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:06:48 -0500

Marc Ambinder reports some exit poll data:

Some exit poll data from North Carolina: 11% of NC voters are new; three out of four are supporting Obama. African American turnout is a lower share of the electorate; 22% in 2008, but Obama's getting 97% among them. McCain is winning white voters by a share of two to one; late deciders broke toward Obama.

Remember that exit polls have been notoriously unreliable in the past.

Obama, McCain held to their bases

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 19:43:55 -0500

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama and his Republican rival John McCain held tight to their political bases in North Carolina in an election dominated by the faltering economy, the AP reports.

An Associated Press exit poll showed Obama running well among liberals and moderates in North Carolina, while McCain was drawing very strong support from the state’s many conservatives.

The Illinois senator was winning support from voters under 30 and those making under $50,000 a year. McCain was running well with voters over 65 and those earning more than $50,000 a year.

Six in 10 voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the nation.

The survey of 2,731 North Carolina voters was conducted for AP by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. Most were interviewed in a random sample of 60 precincts statewide Tuesday; 657 who voted early or absentee were interviewed by landline telephone over the last week.

Exit polls: Obama 55, Clinton 42

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 06 May 2008 20:19:19 -0400

Exit polls project Barack Obama will carry North Carolina by 55 percent to 42 percent for Hillary Clinton, a larger spread than polls projected in the last week.

The exit polls, conducted by the major television news networks, showed Clinton handily winning white voters, the subject of considerable wooing by both of the Democratic presidential contenders. Clinton took 59 percent to 36 percent for Obama.

Among black voters, Obama won 91 percent compared to 6 percent for Clinton, Mark Johnson reports.

Obama won all income groups.

Voters picked the economy as their top issue, 60 percent, with Iraq coming in a distant second at 22 percent and health care at third, 15 percent.

The ability to enact change was the top quality in a candidate for 50 percent of voters, while experience was second at 22 percent. More voters saw Obama as honest and trustworthy, 70 percent to Clinton's 47 percent, and more voters also see Obama as ready to be commander-in-chief, 49 percent to 45 percent who said the same about Cllinton.

(The numbers can exceed 100 percent because voters were asked about each candidate individually not in comparison.)

Among Clinton supporters, 45 percent said they would support Obama if he won the nomination, while 38 percent would defect to John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee.

Obama's supporters were more willing to stay with the Democratic Party. Seventy percent said they would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee, while 12 percent would switch to McCain.

CNN: Voters split on Wright

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 06 May 2008 17:14:09 -0400

CNN says North Carolina voters were split on Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The cable news network reports that its exit poll of voters today showed that 50 percent thought Wright's views were not important, while 48 percent thought they were important.

Those who thought they were important tended to vote for Hillary Clinton, while those who thought they weren't voted for Barack Obama.

In addition, the network said that voters who go to church regularly tended to think that Wright's views were more important.

Not a fan of entrance polls

ryanteaguebeckwith — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:45:08 -0500

Tim Boyum's not a fan of entrance polls.

On his Political Connections blog, the News 14 Carolina reporter wonders about their value:

So, if exit polls weren't bad enough in some people's eyes on election day, we are now seeing entrance polls for the Iowa caucus because exit polls are worthless.

Then again, entrance polls are probably worthless too.