Congressional Quarterly

CQ: Burr race a toss-up

ryanteaguebeckwith — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 13:21:12 -0400

CQ already says the 2010 Senate race is a toss-up.

The Washington-based political research and news company has ranked Sen. Richard Burr's re-election campaign "no clear favorite" — even though Burr does not yet have a Democratic opponent.

In a sidebar, the editors write that state Republicans looked like they were on a roll when Burr was elected in 2004, but he's now running "in an altered North Carolina political landscape" with a low profile.

"Burr's biggest political problem is not that he is unpopular, but that he has maintained such a low public profile that roughly a third of North Carolina respondents tell pollsters they don't know enough about him to state an opinion," they write.

Like everyone else, they write that Attorney General Roy Cooper is expected to run, but, citing Sen. Kay Hagan's successful run last year, they argue that less-well-known Democrats may be spurred to run.

CQ also rated Senate races in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Florida as toss-ups.

Hat Tip: Tom Jensen

Ross, Silver take the gold in punditry

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 08:58:47 -0500

Two liberal bloggers came the closest to predicting North Carolina's presidential race.

Nate Silver, a statistics nut who runs the Web site FiveThirtyEight.com, and Kirk Ross, who writes the Exile on Jones Street blog about the legislature, both predicted Barack Obama would win the state. Silver said by 0.6 percentage points; Ross by 0.5 to 1.5 points.

The actual margin, according to uncertified results from the State Board of Elections, was 0.3 points.

The two were among 16 bloggers, pundits, professors and consultants who predicted an Obama win in the Tar Heel state, according to an informal tally by Dome the week before the election.

Because of the narrow margin, the 13 who predicted a McCain win (including the Eight Ball) shouldn't be too ashamed, except maybe the four conservatives who predicted a win by three or more points — Sen. Richard Burr, Red State editor Erick Erickson, blogger Ed Morrissey and editor Fred Barnes.

And no points go to the five mainstream sources who refused to make a prediction (Rothenberg Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Cook Political Report, New York Times and MSNBC.)

Rankings on the Senate race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:13:59 -0500

Analysts think the Senate race is Kay Hagan's to lose.

A quick survey of the major political observers in the days leading up to the election show that they either rank the race as a toss-up or say it favors Hagan slightly:

N.C. consultant John Davis: Hagan win

UNC-Chapel Hill prof Leroy Towns: Hagan win

Democratic consultant Gary Pearce: Hagan win

Winston-Salem Journal managing editor Ken Otterbourg: Hagan win

Liberal N.C. blogger Kirk Ross: Hagan win

Conservative N.C. blogger Dan Gearino: Hagan win

Magic Eight Ball: Hagan win

Five Thirty Eight: Likely Democrat

Washington Post: Sixth Most Likely to Switch Parties

Rothenberg Political Report: Leans Hagan

University of Virginia prof Larry Sabato: Leans Democrat

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

New York Times: Toss-up

MSNBC's Chuck Todd: Nailbiter

N.C. State politics prof Andy Taylor: Dole win

Rankings on the governor's race

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 09:54:31 -0500

Analysts don't know who will win the governor's race.

A quick survey of local and national political observers in the days leading up to the election shows that there's little agreement beyond the fact that it's a close race:

N.C. State politics prof Andy Taylor: Perdue win

Democratic consultant Gary Pearce: Perdue win

Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat

Cook Political Report: "Toss-up"

Rothenberg Political Report: "Toss-up"

MSNBC's Chuck Todd: "Nailbiter"

Washington Post: "Third Most Likely to Switch Parties"

N.C. consultant John Davis: McCrory win

UNC-Chapel Hill prof Leroy Towns: McCrory win

Claims Dept: DSCC's 'Mess' ad

bniolet — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:03:56 -0400

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is running a television ad that says Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is out of touch and ineffective.

What the ad says: Announcer: "She’s part of the Washington mess. Elizabeth Dole voted with George Bush 92 percent. No wonder Elizabeth Dole’s ranked 93rd in effectiveness.

"She’s simply out of touch. Two years ago, records show she spent just 13 days in North Carolina. The year before, only 20 days. Papers call Dole an 'absentee senator,' 'ineffective,' a 'disappointment.'

"Elizabeth Dole. Just not getting the job done.

"The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising."

The ad flashes text echoing the announcer's claims and photographs of Dole, including a shot of her with President Bush.

The background: Washington-based news service Congressional Quarterly compiles yearly figures for how often senators vote with the stated position of the president. The 92 percent figure comes from an average of the yearly scores for Dole, though Congressional Quarterly researchers says that method is inaccurate. Based on its overall score through August, they say the correct figure for Dole is 88 percent. The effectiveness ranking comes from an annual study conducted by the data service Knowlegis. It ranked Dole 93 in the Senate for 2008. The ranking is based on analysis of criteria including news articles, bills, amendments, committee and caucus positions, campaign contributions and earmarks, according to Knowlegis.

The claim about her visits to the state is based on a story by The Winston-Salem Journal that analyzed tax paid travel records, news releases and media coverage. Dole said the paper didn't count all the times she's been to the state at her own expense and that the story punished her for paying her own way to North Carolina.

The quotes from newspapers were taken from unsigned editorials in The Asheville Citizen-Times and The Charlotte Observer that endorsed state Sen. Kay Hagan, the Democratic nominee.

Is it accurate? Not entirely. The methodology for calculating Dole's voting record is inaccurate. Using Senate records to track her visits to the state would not include times she paid her own way.

Claims Dept: DSCC's 'Bear' ad on Dole

ryanteaguebeckwith — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:24:57 -0400

A new ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee attacks U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole on a number of votes.

What it says: The ad shows images of Dole and an Alaskan landscape, including a brown bear. Narrator: "Why is Elizabeth Dole ranked 93rd in effectiveness? She voted for millions in pork, including Alaska's bridge to nowhere. But for North Carolina? She voted with George Bush 92 percent. Against raising the minimum wage time after time. Against helping families struggling to keep their homes. For the largest cut ever in student loans. Elizabeth Dole, fighting for ... Alaska? Definitely out of touch with North Carolina. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising."

The background: The ad makes several claims about Dole's voting record.

BRIDGE TO NOWHERE: Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens requested an earmark in the 2006 budget for the proposed $398 million Gravina Island Bridge, nicknamed the "Bridge to Nowhere" by detractors because it serves an island with just 50 residents.

In October of 2005, Republican Sen. Tom Coburn proposed an amendment to the bill that would have shifted $75 million from the bridge and another project in Alaska to the rebuilding of a bridge destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

The amendment failed, 15-82, with Dole voting against it.

Congress later stripped the earmark, but gave the state of Alaska an equivalent amount of money for any use it considered appropriate.

MINIMUM WAGE: Starting in 2005, Senate Democrats attempted to raise the federal minimum wage.

In March, Sen. Ted Kennedy proposed raising it by $2.10 over the following 26 months. As a counterproposal, Republican Sen. Rick Santorum proposed raising it by $1.10 over 18 months while exempting more businesses.

Either would have been the first increase in the federal minimum wage since 1997.

The amendments both came on a bill overhauling bankruptcy regulations. Both proposals could have complicated efforts to pass the overhaul, since House leaders had said they would only consider the bill if the Senate did not add unrelated amendments.

The Kennedy amendment failed, 46-49, while the Santorum amendment failed, 38-61. Dole voted against the first amendment, but for the second.

In October, Senate Democrats unsuccessfully attempted to raise the minimum wage by $1.10 an hour over 18 months. Dole voted against that raise as well.

After Democrats gained control of the Senate in 2006, they pushed the minimum wage hike again. Dole voted for the first, which was never signed into law. The wage hike was later included in an emergency spending bill that Dole voted for as well.

ENERGY ASSISTANCE: The fine print on the section of the ad on struggling families cites a vote on home energy asistance.

In 2006, Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine proposed spending an additional $1 billion in the 2007 budget for one-time assistance to people who need help paying their heating and cooling bills.

Dole voted against an amendment on the measure, which later passed by a voice vote.

Spokesman Dan McLagan said Dole objected to how the money would be spent.

"The vast majority of the package was aimed at cold-weather states," he said. "All this money was going to go to northern states for a winter that had been mild, versus southern states that had a hot summer."

In 2008, Dole successfully pushed another measure for more spending on the same energy assistance program. She received an award for her efforts from the National Fuel Funds Network, a nonprofit coalition of energy assistance providers.

CREDIT COUNSELING: In April, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray proposed spending another $100 million on foreclosure counseling this year.

At the time, Congress had already budgeted $180 million for credit counselors.

Murray argued that spending more to prevent homeowners from going into foreclosure was "a smart investment," although it would require suspending budget rules that require any new spending to be matched by an equal cut somewhere else.

Senate Republicans argued that they needed to investigate whether the money was being spent appropriately before budgeting more. If more was spent, they argued it should be done through the regular budget process, not an amendment.

The amendment failed 44-40, with Dole voting against it.

PREVIOUS CLAIMS: Washington-based news service Congressional Quarterly compiles yearly figures for how often senators vote with the stated position of the president. The 92 percent figure comes from an average of the yearly scores for Dole, though Congressional Quarterly researchers says that method is inaccurate. Based on its overall score through August, they say the correct figure for Dole is 88 percent. The effectiveness ranking comes from an annual study conducted by the data service Knowlegis.

Is it accurate? Some of the claims are true: Dole voted against a measure to strip funding for the "Bridge to Nowhere," her effectiveness ranking was 93rd, and she voted against more credit counseling for families facing foreclosure. Two other claims are missing context: She voted against raising the minimum wage and providing more energy assistance, though she later voted for both. In addition, the vote on energy assistance had little to do with foreclosure. The figure for her votes with President Bush is off by a few percentage points.

NYT, CQ: N.C. is a presidential toss-up

ryanteaguebeckwith — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:27:44 -0400

The New York Times says North Carolina is a toss-up.

The newspaper had previously not included the state in its round-up of battlegrounds and had it leaning towards John McCain on its electoral map, but that changed today:

North Carolina, a state that is normally is about as red as they get, is being moved into the toss-up column. Mr. Obama has poured tons of money into the state, and is spending a lot of time there, and Republicans are growing increasingly anxious that he might take it away from them.

Meantime, Congressional Quarterly also moved the state into its "No Clear Favorite" category today.

At the outset, McCain had the edge — the GOP has won 9 out of the past 10 contests — but his comfort margin has evaporated. Obama can count on a large African-American turnout.

The Cook Political Report, MSNBC's editors, Republican consultant Karl Rove, and editors of The Atlantic Monthly also consider North Carolina a toss-up.

The Rothenberg Political Report still calls the state "Leans McCain," but his ratings haven't been publicly updated since late September.

MSNBC: N.C. a presidential toss-up

ryanteaguebeckwith — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:47:20 -0400

MSNBC says North Carolina is a presidential "toss-up."

On their First Read blog, the network's editors write that North Carolina could go to either Barack Obama or John McCain.

"As the slew of recent national and state polls suggest, our new map reflects a shift in Obama's direction," they write. "What's interesting about these shifts is that while Obama is showing an improvement in fast-growing states (CO, FL, NV, NC, VA), he can't seem to put away the Northern tier states of slow-growing states (MI, PA, WI) or make progress in what some believe is still the all-important state of OH."

This is the highest ranking given to Obama's chances here by a nationally known political team so far this election season.

Still, the big three still see a slight advantage for McCain, however.

Last week, Congressional Quarterly downgraded North Carolina to "Leans Republican." The Rothenberg Political Report ranks it as "Leans McCain." And the Cook Political Report lists is as "Leans Republican."

Senate race a 'toss up,' raters say

ryanteaguebeckwith — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:14:14 -0400

Three national groups say the Senate race a toss-up.

On Thursday, the Cook Political Report moved the race between U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan to "Toss Up" after previously ranking it "Leans Republican."

On Sept. 14, the Rothenberg Political Report also moved the race to "Toss Up" and Congressional Quarterly calls it "No Clear Favorite."

"Democrats view Dole as vulnerable in her second-term bid because of ties to Bush, her support for the war and her stint chairing the Senate GOP ’ s disastrous 2006 campaign effort," CQ editors write. "Democratic state senator Kay Hagan has launched a strong campaign to unseat Dole and the party is rallying behind her to make this seat a pick-up opportunity."

CQ: N.C. leans Republican

ryanteaguebeckwith — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 12:11:39 -0400

Congressional Quarterly has downgraded John McCain's chances here.

The Washington-based news service had previously listed North Carolina as "Republican Favored," but now ranks the state as the more competitive "Leans Republican."

Staffer Greg Giroux writes that Democrat Barack Obama still has an uphill climb in North Carolina and Indiana based on past elections:

Still, it would take quite a leap for Obama to switch those two states from Republican red to Democratic blue on those Election Night electoral vote maps. While Bush won Virginia by an 8 percentage-point margin, he carried North Carolina by 12 points — even though Democratic vice presidential nominee Edwards represented the state in the Senate — and took Indiana by a 21-point margin.