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The conservative Civitas Institute released new numbers showing the constitutional amendment defining marriage with solid support.

If the election were held today, the referendum would pass with 61 percent support. The numbers show little change since September (62 percent) when lawmakers voted to put it on the May primary ballot.

The current level is the lowest in five months -- but it means little because all the numbers are within the 4 percent margin of error. Opposition is also consistent at 32 percent, Civitas reported.

The poll was conducted March 22-25 by National Research. It tracks with a recent Public Policy Polling survey showing the constitutional amendment with 58 percent support.

A conservative group has questioned the Elon poll.

Tami Fitzgerald, an attorney with the conservative N.C. Family Policy Council, told the Associated Press that she disputed the methodology of the Elon University Poll which showed 50 percent of North Carolinians opposed a constitutional ban on gay marriage.

She argued that it surveyed all adults and not likely voters.

And she said the poll's question, which asked if the person would vote to "prevent any same-sex marriages," carried a negative tone that may have skewed the results.

"Phrasing it in a negative way probably elicited a stronger response in the negative," she said. Fitzgerald suggested asking if the person would approve an amendment defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

Pollsters with the conservative Civitas Institute, which has polled that wording, also objected to the Elon poll.

* Rep. Ray Rapp files a bill that would give Gov. Beverly Perdue the authority to furlough state workers, which she says she won't do.

* Greensboro News-Record's Mark Binker thinks Civitas' polling on gay marriage may have "established a norm" by referring to other states.

* Bill to help members of the military renew their drivers licenses while deployed passes House. Idea came from Army reservist Rep. Ric Killian.

* Democratic consultant Gary Pearce highlights Sen. Charlie Albertson's bill to prevent sports teams from playing if school scores are low.

A bill to ban gay marriage in the state constitution cited the Civitas poll.

The House version of the Defense of Marriage Act this year includes among its clauses a reference to polling on the issue done by the conservative think tank.

Whereas, in statewide poll numbers released May 20, 2008, by the John William Pope Civitas Institute, 71% of North Carolina voters support the passage of a State Marriage Amendment, while 26% are opposed. Among African-American voters, support for the marriage amendment was at 86% ...

That whereas has since been undermined, however.

A survey by the Elon University Poll released today showed that 50 percent of North Carolinians oppose a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

Hat Tip: Lisa Grafstein

Wording changes had dramatic effects in polls on gay marriage.

Two polls by the conservative Civitas Institute that used much different wording than a recent Elon University Poll survey which found much higher support for a state constitutional ban on gay marriage.

In May of 2008, Civitas asked if people would support an amendment "defining marriage as between one man and one woman."

Seventy-one percent supported, 26 percent opposed and three percent were unsure.

Then, in February, the group asked the same question, prefacing it by noting that "North Carolina is the only state in the Southeast that does not have a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman."

Seventy-six percent supported, 21 percent opposed and four percent were unsure.

That's rougly 30 percentage points more support than in Elon's poll, which asked if voters would support an amendment that would "prevent any same-sex marriages."

In all of the polls, around 20 percent are consistently in favor of gay marriage rights.

Which state bills have the most support?

Recent surveys by the Elon University Poll, the conservative Civitas Institute and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling have shown broad agreement on a number of issues.

Below, the percentage in support and the corresponding bill:

H.B. 361: Defense of Marriage (76 percent, Civitas)

S.B. 155: Community College Can't Admit Illegal Aliens (74 percent, PPP)

H.B. 88: Healthy Youth Act (69 percent, PPP)

H.B. 2: Prohibit Smoking in Public & Work Places. (67 percent, Elon; 64 percent PPP)

S.B. 12: Ban Mobile Phone Use While Driving (66 percent, Elon)

H.B. 35: Independent Redistricting Commission (55 percent, Civitas)

Correction: A previous version of this post included S.B. 161, which would overturn the moratorium on the death penalty. Polling data is conflicted on this issue, so it has been removed from the list.

What does North Carolina think?

Recent polls by the conservative Civitas Institute show significant agreement on a number of issues that are before the legislature.

Below, the percentage who agreed with a sentiment:

76: Support a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

75: The legislature should be broadcast live on TV, like C-SPAN.

73: Political candidates should fund their own campaigns instead of using public financing.

59: Members of the legislature should stick with two-year terms.

58: Hunting should not be allowed on Sundays in North Carolina.

55: The state should set up an independent redistricting commission.

51: Oppose a constitutional amendment to let the governor appoint the schools superintendent.

The poll of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 16-19 by TelOpinion Research of Alexandria, Va. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

An overwhelming majority of North Carolina voters support amending the state constitution to define marriage as being between a man and a woman, according to poll results released this week by the Civitas Institute.

The poll of 600 registered voters from Feb. 16-19 found that 76 percent support a constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage, while 21 percent are opposed to such an amendment.

State law in North Carolina defines marriage as being between a man and a woman, but a measure being pushed in the state legislature calls for a constitutional amendment on the issue.

Two more quotes from Rudy Giuliani's speech at a Raleigh luncheon today.

On abortion: "I hate it. I don't like it. I wish somebody didn't have to have an abortion, and I would recommend anyone that asked me ... my personal opinion would be have the child and we'll help you. ... But I do believe ultimately a woman has to make that choice and you have to respect her."

On gay marriage: "I am in favor of marriage between a man and a woman. I think it should remain that way. ... I do support domestic partnerships as a way of protecting people who have different sexual orientations so they're not unfairly treated. But I did 220 weddings and every single person — I think — was a man and a woman."