Tag search result

A conservative group has questioned the Elon poll.

Tami Fitzgerald, an attorney with the conservative N.C. Family Policy Council, told the Associated Press that she disputed the methodology of the Elon University Poll which showed 50 percent of North Carolinians opposed a constitutional ban on gay marriage.

She argued that it surveyed all adults and not likely voters.

And she said the poll's question, which asked if the person would vote to "prevent any same-sex marriages," carried a negative tone that may have skewed the results.

"Phrasing it in a negative way probably elicited a stronger response in the negative," she said. Fitzgerald suggested asking if the person would approve an amendment defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

Pollsters with the conservative Civitas Institute, which has polled that wording, also objected to the Elon poll.

A bill to ban gay marriage in the state constitution cited the Civitas poll.

The House version of the Defense of Marriage Act this year includes among its clauses a reference to polling on the issue done by the conservative think tank.

Whereas, in statewide poll numbers released May 20, 2008, by the John William Pope Civitas Institute, 71% of North Carolina voters support the passage of a State Marriage Amendment, while 26% are opposed. Among African-American voters, support for the marriage amendment was at 86% ...

That whereas has since been undermined, however.

A survey by the Elon University Poll released today showed that 50 percent of North Carolinians oppose a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

Hat Tip: Lisa Grafstein

Wording changes had dramatic effects in polls on gay marriage.

Two polls by the conservative Civitas Institute that used much different wording than a recent Elon University Poll survey which found much higher support for a state constitutional ban on gay marriage.

In May of 2008, Civitas asked if people would support an amendment "defining marriage as between one man and one woman."

Seventy-one percent supported, 26 percent opposed and three percent were unsure.

Then, in February, the group asked the same question, prefacing it by noting that "North Carolina is the only state in the Southeast that does not have a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman."

Seventy-six percent supported, 21 percent opposed and four percent were unsure.

That's rougly 30 percentage points more support than in Elon's poll, which asked if voters would support an amendment that would "prevent any same-sex marriages."

In all of the polls, around 20 percent are consistently in favor of gay marriage rights.

Which state bills have the most support?

Recent surveys by the Elon University Poll, the conservative Civitas Institute and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling have shown broad agreement on a number of issues.

Below, the percentage in support and the corresponding bill:

H.B. 361: Defense of Marriage (76 percent, Civitas)

S.B. 155: Community College Can't Admit Illegal Aliens (74 percent, PPP)

H.B. 88: Healthy Youth Act (69 percent, PPP)

H.B. 2: Prohibit Smoking in Public & Work Places. (67 percent, Elon; 64 percent PPP)

S.B. 12: Ban Mobile Phone Use While Driving (66 percent, Elon)

H.B. 35: Independent Redistricting Commission (55 percent, Civitas)

Correction: A previous version of this post included S.B. 161, which would overturn the moratorium on the death penalty. Polling data is conflicted on this issue, so it has been removed from the list.