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Bowles makes strongest Democratic candidate for governor, polls show

In a crowded Democratic field for governor, only Erskine Bowles can match Republican Pat McCrory at this point, according to a poll released Monday.

Bowles, the former two-time U.S. Senate candidate, trails McCrory 44 to 42 percent in a hypothetical matchup -- a virtual deadlock with McCrory's advantage within the 4.2 percent margin of error. The problem: Bowles isn't in the race yet.

The Public Policy Polling survey tested 13 Democratic candidates against McCrory, the likely GOP nominee and former Charlotte mayor, after Gov. Bev Perdue dropped out. Pollster Tom Jensen argues that Democrats have a better chance with Perdue out of the race. In a generic partisan matchup, voters split evenly -- 46 percent supporting a Democratic candidates and 45 percent supporting a Republican. 

Marshall's team assembled

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has assembled a veteran team of political consultants to help her in her bid for the U.S. Senate.

Her pollster is Celinda Lake of Washington, who has worked for candidates ranging from former President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Harvey Gantt's 1996 Senate campaign, Rob Christensen reports. Lake, who is regarded as expert in framing in issues for women, also worked for Marshall's unsuccessful 2002 Senate campaign.

Her media consultant is Doc Sweitzer of Philadelphia, whose clients have included Al Gore' 1988 presidential campaign and New Jersey Governor Jim Florio's race. He has extensive experience in working for North Carolina Democrats including state Treasurer Richard Moore and Congressmen Robin Britt, Bill Hefner, Martin Lancaster, Brad Miller and Steve Neal.

Marshall's general consultant is Thomas Mills of Chapel Hill, who has worked for the Kerry-Edwards campaign, for Congressman Larry Kissell and Eva Clayton and Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy among other candidates.

Marshall is one of two Democrats who have announced for the seat held by Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Lawyer Kenneth Lewis has also announced his candidacy.

Tea leaves on the U.S. Senate race

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2010 is wide open.

At this point, any of the major Democratic officials in the state could announce a campaign and quickly move to front-runner status. Or one of the lesser-known candidates could jump in and begin making waves.

Still, a few things are becoming evident:

DSCC THINKING BIG: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is looking for a brand name. Despite its success in 2008 with a state senator with low name recognition, the Washington crowd is looking for a Congressman or current or former statewide official.

WHO'S IN, WHO'S OUT: U.S. Reps. Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Grier Martin seem increasingly unlikely. Washington types like Rep. Heath Shuler, who's not ruling it out, while Rep. Mike McIntyre is interested.

STILL UNKNOWN: A few other potential candidates have not been heard from: Raleigh mayor Charles Meeker, former state Treasurer Richard Moore, state legislator Dan Blue, and the rest of this extensive list. (Update: Meeker's out, Blue's answer is ambiguous.)

PRIMARY COMPETITION: Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis seems increasingly likely to run in the primary. Former state senator Cal Cunningham may also make a run for it. Either candidate would lead to a more interesting primary than Democrats faced in 2008.

By picking a female candidate with pro-business credentials and strong North Carolina ties, Democrats neutralized some of Sen. Elizabeth Dole's advantages and set up a contrast between the native and the so-called carpetbagger.

It's not yet clear what their strategy would be against Burr. But here are a few qualities to consider: Son of a Presbyterian minister, college football player, Triad native, and conservative with a record on veterans' issues.

If not Cooper, then who?

Who else might run for U.S. Senate?

With Attorney General Roy Cooper dropping out of a long-expected run against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, only Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis is left on the Democratic sid, and even he hasn't committed.

Here's a running list of other contenders:

* Richard Moore: Former state treasurer, failed Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Why he might run: Ambitious, rich pol who won statewide office twice. Why not: May have damaged brand with 2008 campaign.

* Brad Miller: Congressman, former state legislator. Why he might run: He was very publicly courted to run in 2008. Why not: He's just hitting his stride in the House; he may have personal issues.

* Cal Cunningham: Former state senator, U.S. Army reservist. Why he might run: He's reportedly interested in the race. Why not: He has low statewide name recognition and no current post to run from.

* Heath Shuler: Congressman, former NFL player. Why he might run: He spent 118 days publicly thinking it over earlier this year. Why not: He may be too conservative for a Democratic primary.

* Charles Meeker: Raleigh mayor who has been mentioned before. Why he might run: Served four terms as popular mayor of one of state's largest cities. Why not: That didn't help Pat McCrory win the governor's mansion.

* Grier Martin: Young turk in state legislature who turned down 2008 recruiting effort. Why he might run: Probably still kicking himself. Why not: Will need tons and tons of money for a guy with no statewide name recognition.

* Bob Etheridge: Congressman, former state schools superintendent. Why he might run: He's won statewide before and is known as an affable campaigner. Why not: He's just landed a spot on the powerful Ways and Means committee.

* Mel Watt: Congressman, former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. Why he might run: He managed Harvey Gantt's first campaign for Senate. Why not: He's got a can't-lose position in the House.

* Mike McIntyre: Congressman, member of the Blue Dog Coalition. Why he might run: He could match Burr on conservative issues in the general election. Why not: Those same stances would hurt him in a primary.

* Dan Blue: Former House speaker who recently moved over to the state Senate. Why he might run: He ran for Senate nomination in 2002. Why not: His politics may be too liberal for a statewide race; he'd have to give up his seat again.

* Elaine Marshall: Secretary of state now in her fifth term. Why she might run: She ran for the Democratic nomination in 2002. Why not: The longest-serving current member of the Council of State is in a comfortable job now.

* Janet Cowell: State treasurer, former state senator, former Raleigh councilwoman. Why she might run: She's a savvy pol who's climbed the ladder quickly already. Why not: After only a few months in statewide office, it might be too soon.

* Erskine Bowles: University of North Carolina system president, former Clinton chief of staff. Why he might run: He ran in 2002 and 2004. Why not: He lost both times; he's praised Burr; he's already thinking of retiring.

* Elizabeth Edwards: Health care advocate, wife of former U.S. Sen. John Edwards. Why she might run: She's vastly more popular among voters than her husband. Why not: That's not saying much.

Moore downplays possible 2010 run

Richard Moore is circumspect about 2010.

In an interview with WRAL's Cullen Browder, the outgoing state treasurer seemed to downplay talk that he may run against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr in two years.

"I'm flattered that people would think that I'd be worthy of being one of the 100 U.S. senators in this country, but I don't have any plans," he said.

Moore, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination this year, said that knowing he would have to start a campaign committee up in as little as a year and begin raising money was also an obstacle.

"That gives me even more pause ... that's just not very long," he said.

Still, Moore did not entirely rule out a run.

"I don' t know that the timing is going to be right for me, but I know to never say never," he said.

In recent weeks, U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has ruled out a run, Rep. Heath Shuler has hinted he might run and an anonymous blogger has started a Web site to draft Attorney General Roy Cooper.

Hat Tip: Tom Jensen

Miller opts out of Burr challenge

U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has taken himself out of the running.

The Raleigh Democrat said Monday that he's not interested in challenging U.S. Sen. Richard Burr in 2010, instead running for a fourth term in his House district.

Miller had previously been considered a top prospect to run against Sen. Elizabeth Dole, but he turned that race down, saying he wanted to focus on more important issues.

Though state Sen. Kay Hagan beat Dole by a comfortable margin, Miller said he had no regrets about turning down either race.

"I don't want to spend 18 months of my life having people in Washington tell me how to be Southern," he said.

Attorney General Roy Cooper, outgoing state Treasurer Richard Moore and Rep. Heath Shuler have also been mentioned as possible contenders. (AP)

Cooper feels a draft

Roy CooperAn anonymous blogger is trying to draft Roy Cooper for U.S. Senate.

Started on Nov. 15 — just 11 days after the attorney general won his third term — the Draft Coop blog aims to get the Democrat in the race against Republican Sen. Richard Burr.

"Roy Cooper has been a successful Attorney General," the blogger writes. "In office, he has worked on protecting children, battling meth labs, and increasing DNA testing of crime scene evidence. He was widely praised for his handling of the Duke Lacrosse team rape controversy."

The blog also notes that Cooper won the most votes of any state Democrat in 2008 and argues he was "an effective legislator" in the state Senate. Recent items have cited a Public Policy Polling match-up of Burr and Cooper and debated whether state Treasurer Richard Moore might run.

A similar blog unsuccessfully attempted to draft U.S. Rep. Brad Miller for a Senate run in 2008.

Hat Tip: Tom Jensen

Regrets, they've had a few

Many Democrats are celebrating tonight that Sen. Elizabeth Dole looks to be defeated.

But a few may have some regrets.

That would be: State Rep. Grier Martin and U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, who were openly recruited to run against Dole earlier this year and took a pass.

Others who had been under consideration: Attorney General Roy Cooper, Gov. Mike Easley and state Treasurer Richard Moore.

Moore, who lost a contentious Democratic primary to Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue, would have been a particularly strong candidate given the recent economic troubles.

Still, there's no discounting the role that gender may have played. Any of the men above might have faced a trickier time running against Dole.

Other long shots: Retired Gen. Hugh Shelton and First Lady Mary Easley.

The almanac's take on our politicians

The new 2008 Almanac of American Politics — a sort of political bible for Beltway junkies — landed on Dome’s desk last week smelling of fresh ink. The book is crammed with trivia.

The 1,800-page tome, published by National Journal, has details on voting records, election opponents and inside baseball on every member of Congress, Barb Barrett reports.

A few bits from the Triangle delegation:

* On Sen. Elizabeth Dole: "During the 2005-06 cycle Dole spent relatively little time in North Carolina and ended the year with only $245,000 cash on hand." The entry goes on to list all the Democrats uninterested in taking her on: Gov. Mike Easley, Mary Easley, Erskine Bowles, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue, Treasure Richard Moore, Attorney General Roy Cooper and Rep. Brad Miller.

More after the jump.

Lucrative list

Friday's political fundraiser by Lillian's List brought in more than $100,000, organizers said in a news release.

Lillian's List raises money to help female Democratic candidates for the state legislature who support abortion rights. The group, which has a political action committee, is named after the state's first female lawmaker, Lillian Exum Clement.

Among the attendees were former Gov. Jim Hunt and his wife, Carolyn; Democratic gubernatorial candidates State Treasurer Richard Moore and Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue; U.S. Rep. Brad Miller; and former ambassador Jeanette Hyde.

The fundraiser, held in Cary, commemorated Lillian's List's 10th anniversary.

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