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In a crowded Democratic field for governor, only Erskine Bowles can match Republican Pat McCrory at this point, according to a poll released Monday.

Bowles, the former two-time U.S. Senate candidate, trails McCrory 44 to 42 percent in a hypothetical matchup -- a virtual deadlock with McCrory's advantage within the 4.2 percent margin of error. The problem: Bowles isn't in the race yet.

The Public Policy Polling survey tested 13 Democratic candidates against McCrory, the likely GOP nominee and former Charlotte mayor, after Gov. Bev Perdue dropped out. Pollster Tom Jensen argues that Democrats have a better chance with Perdue out of the race. In a generic partisan matchup, voters split evenly -- 46 percent supporting a Democratic candidates and 45 percent supporting a Republican. 

Gov. Bev Perdue and several other Democratic Party leaders are scheduled to attend a Thursday fundraiser in Raleigh for a group that's hoping to wrest control of the Wake County school board away from the Republican majority.

The stated goal of the fundraiser for the Wake Citizens for Good Government PAC is to benefit Wake school board candidates "who support high quality public schools for all children." The PAC was formed in 2009 and unsuccessfully ran a television attack ad against Republican-backed school board candidates.

The PAC was formed by Dean Debnam, president of the Democratic-leaning polling firm of Public Policy Polling. PPP has recently conducted surveys on Wake school issues for what the firm says is a private client.

Democrats have tried to rally their base against the changes made by the Republican school board majority, including the elimination of the use of socioeconomic diversity in student assignment.

It's time to refresh the old cup of Senate tea leaves.

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2010 continues to be completely wide open, though it's increasingly clear that most of the major state officials will pass on it.

Here's the latest conventional wisdom:

THE LAST BIG HOPE: Washington Democrats and national political pundits continue to search for a brand name. U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre is still toying with a run, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has lately dipped her toe in the water. A definitive "no" has not come from state Sen. Dan Blue yet.

DARK HORSES: Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham leads the pack of dark horses, though former Obama fundraiser Kenneth Lewis can't be counted out. Marshall's legislative liaison, Robert Wilson, told the Insider he was flirting with the idea, but he never returned Dome's calls and he would not likely run against his boss.

WHO'S NOT RUNNING: U.S. Reps. Heath Shuler, Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, Attorney General Roy Cooper, state Sen. Malcolm Graham, state Reps. Grier Martin and Tricia Cotham, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker, and Elizabeth Edwards have all said no. Of course, so did Kay Hagan in 2008.

In Dome's view, Marshall may actually make a run for it: 1) She's interested, since she ran for Senate in 2002; 2) she wouldn't lose her day job (unlike McIntyre or Blue); and 3) at 63, this is probably her last chance to do it.

That said, Cunningham has a good biography and seems to be exciting the netroots.

Cal Cunningham got some more favorable press.

The former state senator is mentioned prominently in an article in the Washington-based Roll Call newspaper about prospects for the 2010 Senate race:

Former Tar Heel state Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek said this week that if Cunningham were to enter the race, he would be someone who would have to be taken seriously.

"He's got an excellent profile in terms of his biography," Meek said. "He's perceived as being a little bit more liberal than, say, Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler."

If one of the Congressmen decides to run and the DSCC and local party leaders can’t clear the field, Cunningham could be a dark horse in a primary where the electorate would be mostly hard-core Democrats in a midterm election.

"There's certainly going to be some folks who perceive Shuler or McIntyre as being too conservative," he said.

The article also notes that U.S. Reps. Heath Shuler or Mike McIntyre would be considered frontrunners if they jumped in the race, and says state Sen. Dan Blue, former Obama fundraiser Kenneth Lewis and Rep. Brad Miller are also "being mentioned." 

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2010 is wide open.

At this point, any of the major Democratic officials in the state could announce a campaign and quickly move to front-runner status. Or one of the lesser-known candidates could jump in and begin making waves.

Still, a few things are becoming evident:

DSCC THINKING BIG: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is looking for a brand name. Despite its success in 2008 with a state senator with low name recognition, the Washington crowd is looking for a Congressman or current or former statewide official.

WHO'S IN, WHO'S OUT: U.S. Reps. Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Grier Martin seem increasingly unlikely. Washington types like Rep. Heath Shuler, who's not ruling it out, while Rep. Mike McIntyre is interested.

STILL UNKNOWN: A few other potential candidates have not been heard from: Raleigh mayor Charles Meeker, former state Treasurer Richard Moore, state legislator Dan Blue, and the rest of this extensive list. (Update: Meeker's out, Blue's answer is ambiguous.)

PRIMARY COMPETITION: Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis seems increasingly likely to run in the primary. Former state senator Cal Cunningham may also make a run for it. Either candidate would lead to a more interesting primary than Democrats faced in 2008.

By picking a female candidate with pro-business credentials and strong North Carolina ties, Democrats neutralized some of Sen. Elizabeth Dole's advantages and set up a contrast between the native and the so-called carpetbagger.

It's not yet clear what their strategy would be against Burr. But here are a few qualities to consider: Son of a Presbyterian minister, college football player, Triad native, and conservative with a record on veterans' issues.

Who else might run for U.S. Senate?

With Attorney General Roy Cooper dropping out of a long-expected run against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, only Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis is left on the Democratic sid, and even he hasn't committed.

Here's a running list of other contenders:

* Richard Moore: Former state treasurer, failed Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Why he might run: Ambitious, rich pol who won statewide office twice. Why not: May have damaged brand with 2008 campaign.

* Brad Miller: Congressman, former state legislator. Why he might run: He was very publicly courted to run in 2008. Why not: He's just hitting his stride in the House; he may have personal issues.

* Cal Cunningham: Former state senator, U.S. Army reservist. Why he might run: He's reportedly interested in the race. Why not: He has low statewide name recognition and no current post to run from.

* Heath Shuler: Congressman, former NFL player. Why he might run: He spent 118 days publicly thinking it over earlier this year. Why not: He may be too conservative for a Democratic primary.

* Charles Meeker: Raleigh mayor who has been mentioned before. Why he might run: Served four terms as popular mayor of one of state's largest cities. Why not: That didn't help Pat McCrory win the governor's mansion.

* Grier Martin: Young turk in state legislature who turned down 2008 recruiting effort. Why he might run: Probably still kicking himself. Why not: Will need tons and tons of money for a guy with no statewide name recognition.

* Bob Etheridge: Congressman, former state schools superintendent. Why he might run: He's won statewide before and is known as an affable campaigner. Why not: He's just landed a spot on the powerful Ways and Means committee.

* Mel Watt: Congressman, former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. Why he might run: He managed Harvey Gantt's first campaign for Senate. Why not: He's got a can't-lose position in the House.

* Mike McIntyre: Congressman, member of the Blue Dog Coalition. Why he might run: He could match Burr on conservative issues in the general election. Why not: Those same stances would hurt him in a primary.

* Dan Blue: Former House speaker who recently moved over to the state Senate. Why he might run: He ran for Senate nomination in 2002. Why not: His politics may be too liberal for a statewide race; he'd have to give up his seat again.

* Elaine Marshall: Secretary of state now in her fifth term. Why she might run: She ran for the Democratic nomination in 2002. Why not: The longest-serving current member of the Council of State is in a comfortable job now.

* Janet Cowell: State treasurer, former state senator, former Raleigh councilwoman. Why she might run: She's a savvy pol who's climbed the ladder quickly already. Why not: After only a few months in statewide office, it might be too soon.

* Erskine Bowles: University of North Carolina system president, former Clinton chief of staff. Why he might run: He ran in 2002 and 2004. Why not: He lost both times; he's praised Burr; he's already thinking of retiring.

* Elizabeth Edwards: Health care advocate, wife of former U.S. Sen. John Edwards. Why she might run: She's vastly more popular among voters than her husband. Why not: That's not saying much.