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Morning Roundup: Final poll shows amendment ahead, Democratic governor's race tighter

A final poll of likely North Carolina voters conducted over the weekend continues to give a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and civil unions an easy margin of victory in Tuesday’s election while the Democratic contest for governor is tightening.

The referendum holds a 16-point advantage, 55 percent in favor and 39 percent against, according to the Public Policy Polling survey, a left-leaning Raleigh-based firm. In the Democratic gubernatorial race, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton’s 10-point lead from a week ago whittled down to a 5-point advantage in the final days. The polls showed Dalton getting about 34 percent of the vote and rival Bob Etheridge taking 29 percent. Four other candidates all received 4 percent or less. Read the full story here.

More political headlines below. Click Read More.

Walter Dalton continues surge, opens 10-point lead in Democratic governor's race

Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton opened a double-digit lead against rival Bob Etheridge in the Democratic primary for governor, according to the latest Public Policy Polling survey released Monday.

Dalton's 36 percent to Etheridge's 26 percent represents a huge surge in April. At the start of the month, Etheridge held a 10-point lead with many voters undecided. His advantage began to evaporate by mid-month as Dalton spent about $400,000 on a TV advertising campaign and appeared to win many of those uncommitted Democrats.

A week ago, polls showed Dalton and Etheridge in a dead heat (26 percent to 25 percent, respectively).

Walter Dalton surges to tie Bob Etheridge in Democratic governor's race

A new poll shows a major shift in the Democratic governor's race with Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton erasing rival Bob Etheridge's 11-point lead from a month ago.

The Public Policy Polling survey of Democratic primary voters puts the two frontrunners in a virtual tie with Dalton's 1-percentage-point lead within the poll's 4.4 percent margin of error.

In late March, Etheridge boasted 26 percent in head-to-head matchup with Dalton receiving just 11 percent. But while Etheridge remained essentially in place at 25 percent, Dalton scored a boost to 26 percent by winning previously undecided voters, the polling data shows.

Etheridge leads primary out of the gate

Former Congressman Bob Etheridge starts out the Democratic primary with  the lead, in what looks like a wide open field, according to a new survey.

Etheridge has the support of 21 percent of North Carolina Democrats, followed by 13 percent who prefer state Sen. Dan Blue, 10 percent for Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, 8 percent for Congressman Brad Miller, 7 percent for former state Treasurer Richard Moore, 6 percent for Congressman Mike McIntyre and 2 percent for state Rep. Bill Faison.

One third of the Democrats are not sure, according to the survey taken by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm based in Raleigh. It was the first poll taken since Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue's surprise announcement that she would not seek re-election.

“Bob Etheridge starts out as the nominal favorite in the Democratic govenror's race, said Dean Debnam, the polling firm's president. “But with the large mass of voters undecided the race is pretty wide open.”

Bowles makes strongest Democratic candidate for governor, polls show

In a crowded Democratic field for governor, only Erskine Bowles can match Republican Pat McCrory at this point, according to a poll released Monday.

Bowles, the former two-time U.S. Senate candidate, trails McCrory 44 to 42 percent in a hypothetical matchup -- a virtual deadlock with McCrory's advantage within the 4.2 percent margin of error. The problem: Bowles isn't in the race yet.

The Public Policy Polling survey tested 13 Democratic candidates against McCrory, the likely GOP nominee and former Charlotte mayor, after Gov. Bev Perdue dropped out. Pollster Tom Jensen argues that Democrats have a better chance with Perdue out of the race. In a generic partisan matchup, voters split evenly -- 46 percent supporting a Democratic candidates and 45 percent supporting a Republican. 

Mosque Politics not a big winner in North Carolina

A majority of North Carolinians feel the that making the so-called ground zero mosque is an inappropriate political issue, according to a new poll.

A survey found that 51 of Tar Heels think the location of an Islamic community center  near the site of the World Trade Center is not pertinent in state politics, 37 percent think it is, and 11 percent, are not certain, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm based in Raleigh.

Republicans(60-29) approved of the issue, Democrats(20-68) opposed it, while independents(38-50) also opposed it, according to the poll

The mosque issue was used in a TV ad by Renee Ellmers, a Republican candidate challenging 2nd district Democratic congressman Bob Etheridge.

The poll surveyed 681 likely North Carolina voters was conducted from Sept. 23 to 26. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

The spin: “Republicans are trying to use the mosque as a wedge issue,” said Dean Debnam, president of the polling firm. “But voters aren't buying it. The campaign tactics that worked in Jesse Helms' North Carolina aren't going to be effective today.”

53 percent in Etheridge's district oppose health care bill

Only 37 percent of the voters in U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge's district support the Democratic proposal for health care reform, according to a poll by Public Policy Polling.

Etheridge, a Lillington Democrat, has been the focus of pressure from both sides of the debate and has not yet said how he will vote.

PPP surveyed 601 voters in Etheridge's district and found that 53 percent oppose the bill while 37 percent support it.

PPP also found that 47 percent of voters would be less likely to vote for Etheridge if he supported the bill while 36 percent were more likely. 

PPP's survey was conducted March 13-14 and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Poll: Burr's numbers up slightly

North Carolinians appear to be a bit more satisfied with U.S. Sen. Richard Burr.

The latest survey by Public Policy Polling shows that the numbers have improved slightly for Burr, a Winston-Salem Republican who is up for re-election next year.

PPP surveyed 711 North Carolina voters from Nov. 9-11. They found that 40 percent of North Carolinians approve of the job Burr is doing, while 31 percent disapprove. That's better than the 38 percent rating Burr got in last month's poll by PPP, and 36 percent in September.

Burr continues to come out on top when voters are asked about match-ups with potential Democratic candidates.

Burr leads U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge (45-35), Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (45-34), former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker (45-33), Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy (44-32), and Chapel Hill attorney Ken Lewis (45-32).

The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Cunningham no longer quacks

Cal Cunningham's poll numbers didn't move much during the period where he was exploring a bid for U.S. Senate.

Cunningham, a Lexington lawyer, was the non-candidate candidate, who appeared at events and quietly looked at a run against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, giving Dome plenty of chances to use duck similes. Now, Dome must put away the quacks because Cunningham is out.

It's likely that his decision had something to do with whatever it is U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge will decide about the race.

It's also helpful to note that Cunningham had the same level of support against Burr in October than he did in February. Public Policy Polling noted in February that Burr was leading Cunningham 46 to 27. In October, the pollster pulled the same percentages. Pollster.com, which averages and analyzes polling data, showed that Cunningham's support over time was only slightly better than a flat line.

And for the record, Pollster.com shows declared candidate Kenneth Lewis with an average of 29.1 percent to Burr's 44.5. It's notable that Lewis and Cunningham, two unknowns, were getting similar numbers suggesting that polling results in their cases are more about Burr's level of support.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, also a declared candidate, has 31.2 percent to Burr's 43.9 percent, according to Pollster.com's analysis. And Etheridge has 34.7 percent to 43.3 percent for Burr.

Poll: Burr down but not nearly out

Is it possible that North Carolina voters aren't happy with Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, but still like him a lot better than any of the Democratic alternatives?

That seems to be the message from the latest survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm that surveyed 683 voters from Oct. 2-4.

Burr's approval rating was just 36 percent. That's down slightly from last month's survey, which had Burr's approval rating at 38 percent.

But when voters were asked about possible match-ups with some of the possible Democratic candidates, Burr easily came out on top. Here's a look at what the survey found:

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