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Pundits: Debate doesn't alter governor's race, McCrory offers surprising details

Three political pundits came away from Wednesday evening's debate with different views. But two points of agreement: Democratic candidate Walter Dalton didn't do enough to alter the race, in which he is losing by double-digits. And Pat McCrory offered a surprising amount of detail on two hot-button issues. 

Andy Taylor, political science professor at N.C. State University: “The debate was certainly not anything approaching the ‘game changer’ Dalton needed. People are already voting, and the lieutenant governor has very little money, so this debate was, in many ways, his last chance to alter the dynamic of the race.

N&O Pundit Panel: Etheridge embraces Washington, Dalton gets into policy weeds

The News & Observer asked four area political pundits to share their reaction about Tuesday’s gubernatorial debate. Here are their thoughts:

Andy Taylor, political scientist at N.C. State University: “The candidates are really beginning to distinguish themselves. Faison was feisty, repeatedly using language that the party’s base would approve of. Etheridge discussed his experience and steady hand, embracing his Washington record in a way you just don’t see candidates doing these days. Dalton, perhaps because he is left with no choice, projected himself as a technocrat, full of practical ideas.”

Thomas Mills, Democratic political strategist and co-founder of Bates & Mills Consulting in Carrboro: “The candidates’ closing arguments summed up their appearances pretty well. Walter Dalton talked about programs and policies; Bob Etheridge talked about experience and leadership; and Bill Faison talked about himself.”

Taylor: Edwards held to high standard

N.C. State University political science professor Andy Taylor says that John Edward's mistress scandal hurt him more than other politicians because he had promised as a candidate to change politics.

"He was in it to change the process," said Taylor, the university's chair and professor of Political Science in the School of Public and International Affairs. "If you're going to be that kind of person, that kind of candidate, then the public holds you to a slightly higher level than they do others."

Taylor said that Edwards' admission that he fathered a child with his mistress won't hurt the former senator and presidential candidate too much more.

"If there were already probably about 20 nails in the coffin, there's another four or five to put on top," Taylor told Dome. "Most people had obviously written him off and there's tremendous discontent among Democrats in the state who had supported him over the years, almost a sense among people that they want their money back."

Given the scale of his public collapse, there will be no second act in Edwards' political life, Taylor said.

"He's going to have fairly low expectations," Taylor said.

Prof: Bill titles matter to public

Andy TaylorAndy Taylor says bill titles are all about framing.

The N.C. State University professor said that most legislators know the substance of a bill by the time they vote on it, so a misleading or vague title won't help.

"A fancy title or some kind of framing should not fool them," he said. "But bills are also packaged for public consumption as well, and the public is not quite as informed."

He said that one key is whether the media picks up the official title or reports on the effects on the bill instead.

"The media are a very important intermediary here," he told Dome. "It really depends on people like you and people like myself — how political commentators, columnists and reporters discuss these things."

Big win will take Hagan only so far

For now, Democrat Kay Hagan has the power and celebrity befitting someone who has just toppled one of America's best-known political women. Come January, as a freshman in the U.S. Senate, she'll have to translate attention into action.

"She'll be visible because of who she's slain, that's for sure," said Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University. "She's the one who brought down Elizabeth Dole, but that and $3.50 will get you a cup of coffee."

Plenty of Hagan's new co-workers already know her. She has been hosted at fundraisers across the country, and she benefited from millions of dollars in advertising from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, run by Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York. Several senators visited the Tar Heel state on her behalf.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the calls poured in -- from Schumer, and from Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Amy Klobuchar, Ben Nelson and Claire McCaskill. She appeared on the "Today" show. (N&O)

Taylor: McCain, Dole, Perdue

Andy Taylor thinks it will be the usual N.C. fare.

The N.C. State politics professor and ubiquitous academic commentator picks John McCain, Elizabeth Dole and Beverly Perdue to win in North Carolina.

"I have a feeling that it's going to be all 'incumbents' or all the fresh faces—no mixed result," he writes Dome. "Of the two I have a slight hunch that it will be the former—McCain, Dole and Perdue. All very, very close. Not for any particular reason other than a hunch."

Meet the Pundit: Andy Taylor

Andy TaylorAndy Taylor is the press corps' favorite professor.

As chairman of the political science department at N.C. State University in Raleigh, Taylor is often turned to for an academic take on the day's events.

There are several reasons: Taylor is pithy, neutral and accessible. For television reporters in need of a talking head, he's a short drive away. And his British accent is a nice change-up for radio reporters in need of an expert.

Taylor attributes his readiness to talk to the press to his job.

"It's an important part of our job responsibilities at N.C. State as a public institution," he said. "One of our charges is that we're here not just to serve our students but also the greater community. I take very personally the responsibility to inform the public."

He's also a reliably neutral source, more likely to talk about the history or context of a news story than to take a stand on an issue. He says his students regularly complain in their course evaluations that they don't know where he stands.

For years, Taylor had an excuse: As a British citizen, he couldn't vote.

"I could honestly say I didn't have a dog in the fight," he said.

More after the jump.

Why outside money is pouring into N.C.

Outside money is pouring into North Carolina's races.

N.C. State political science professor Andy Taylor sees several reasons why third-party groups are spending millions attacking U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Republican gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory.

Close Races: Polls in both the Senate and gubernatorial races are closer than expected, giving national groups hope that they can influence the outcome with a well-timed ad.

Stand by Your Ad: Part of a 2002 campaign law requires candidates to personally approve their ads, but outside groups can run harsh attacks without a backlash.

Contribution Limits: State and federal laws limit the amount donors can give directly to candidates, so some give to third-party groups to further their efforts.

Taylor says that the increasing influence of third-party ads means candidates have less control over their message, but they gain "plausible deniability" on attacks.

"You lose control, which is problematic," he said. "But at the same time, the hits can come in and they're at more than arm's length."

He said the current system is an imperfect compromise.

"I think it's a compromise — satisfactory or not — between two competing values: to make elections transparent and fair but at the same time allow our citizens to participate as much as they want," he said.

A distant third?

John Edwards will likely raise about $9 million during the second quarter.

That's probably far less than his rivals, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

As of Friday afternoon, the Edwards campaign reported on its website that it had raised $8.5 million and was making a major last minute push to reach $9 million. But even if reaches the goal by Saturday June 30th deadline, it will be less than the $14 million he raised during the first three months of the year.

A memo from the Clinton campaign suggested that it would raise about $27 million in the second quarter and said it expected Obama to raise even more.

"It's not great news if that is what happens," said Andy Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State University. "Edwards is mentioned as a top tier candidate. This does not necessarily make him a second tier candidate. But he may be in an intermediate tier all by himself."

More after the jump.

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