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The New York Times broke down the swing states in the presidential race -- and one notable absence: North Carolina.

The newspaper's analysis Sunday concluded that North Carolina is "leaning Romney" and not a toss-up. "The state is reliably Republican, even though the demographics are steadily shifting in favor of Democrats," it stated. The nine swing states: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Take a look at the newspaper's electoral map here -- and check out how North Carolina gets shuffled around in the eight different scenarios.

A new television advertisement takes aim at President Barack Obama's ties to big bankers, suggesting it contradicts his anti-Wall Street statements.

An independent Republican group called American Future Fund is airing the ads in nine swing states, according to Politico, to the tune of $4 million. North Carolina is one of the states, though its unclear where the ad is appearing and how often it will air in the state.

President Barack Obama will win a second term but lose North Carolina, according to a Moody's Analytics model of the 2012 election released Monday.

Moody's -- which accurately predicted the 2008 results down to the electoral vote -- puts North Carolina in the "leans Republican" category and suggests Obama will win only 47.3 percent of the state's vote.

It lists the three key swing states at Virginia, Ohio and Florida, predicting Obama will win the first two and lose the third. The analysis gives the Democrats 303 electoral votes, compared to Republican's 235. To win, a candidate needs 270.