Ted Arrington says Barack Obama could win even by losing North Carolina.

The UNC-Charlotte politics professor said that the Democratic presidential candidate forced Republican John McCain to spend valuable time, money and energy defending the Tar Heel state.

"He succeeded when he forced McCain and Palin to spend money here, put in staff here and campaign here, which they didn't have the time or money to do," he told Dome. "That came straight ouf out of what they needed in Pennsylvania, Ohio and so forth. ... It was a brilliant strategy."

Arrington said no matter who wins the state, it will be close.

He said that Obama had an aggressive ground campaign backed by millions of dollars' worth of advertising and thousands of volunteers, while McCain came late to the state. He called Obama's ground-level efforts the best he'd seen in 50 years.

"If Obama carries the state, you can look back and say the ground campaign did it," he said.

Is North Carolina more like Virginia or Tennessee?

That's the question on the minds of campaign managers for Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

All three states are part of the so-called "Rim South" — Southern states that aren't part of the Deep South but aren't Northern either.

UNC-Charlotte politics professor Ted Arrington said that Obama could see similarities with Virginia, which he won handily: A large military presence, a mid-sized black population, strong urban centers such as Richmond and Charlotte.

On the other hand, Hillary Clinton could see parallels to Tennesse, which she won: A strong agricultural area, similar capital cities, a mid-sized black population and clusters of retirees in the mountains.

Arrington said that Obama will likely win in three Congressional districts with larger black populations represented by Reps. Mel Watt, G.K. Butterfield and Mike McIntyre.

"If they split the vote statewide, the other 10 districts would very likely go to Clinton," he said. 

The National Association of Social Workers is defending the value of its endorsement.

The group's director of advocacy and legislation, Jack Register, wrote that UNC-Charlotte Professor Ted Arrington was wrong to say the group has no political clout.

"I see our association as a powerful voice for N.C. social workers," he writes.

However, he says Arrington was correct that its members do not always vote for the candidates it has endorsed, which in this case was Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue.

"I see this as a strength," he wrote Dome. "Our association is made up of 4,000 social workers. The diversity of opinions of our members continues to influence our policy positions so that we are truly representative."

Register says that approximately 83 percent of members are women and at least three-fourths have a master's in social work or higher.

All gubernatorial endorsements are not created equal.

Earlier, we noted that UNC-Charlotte Professor Ted Arrington is skeptical that Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue's rack of endorsements will help in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

But there is one group—or rather a set of groups—that Arrington thinks could make a difference.

Those are the black voters' groups in each of North Carolina's major cities that routinely make political endorsements: The Raleigh-Wake Citizens Association, The Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People, The Simkins PAC in Greensboro and The Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg.

That's because the groups generally have a good reputation in the black community and they work hard to inform voters.

"They will have people right outside the doors of the precincts with a marked ballot," he said.

Still, Arrington said the groups may choose to skip endorsements in the primary.

Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue is winning the endorsements race.

But will that help her win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination? UNC-Charlotte Professor Ted Arrington is doubtful.

"They don't matter to voters," he told Dome. "A voter rarely votes for a candidate because they've been endorsed. None of these groups have a wide enough membership to make a difference. And there's not a lot of proof that members follow the endorsement."

Of the endorsements announced so far, Arrington said the N.C. Association of Educators is the most significant because it was ratified by the general membership and because of the group's expertise in education.

He was less impressed by EMILY's List and the National Women's Political Caucus, which would be expected to endorse the female candidate, and the National Association of Social Workers and the United Transportation Union, which don't have a lot of clout.