The presidential race remains close.

In a recent poll by SurveyUSA, Republican John McCain had 49 percent, Democrat Barack Obama had 46 percent and "other" had three percent. Two percent were undecided.

The pollsters write that the election may hinge on turning out 100,000 more black voters:

In SurveyUSA's model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate. However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor's race. 

Other recent polls have also shown a tight race, with two putting Obama ahead slightly. 

The survey of 617 likely voters was taken between Oct. 5-6. It had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

How did Mike Munger get invited to a UNC-TV debate tonight?

The Libertarian candidate for governor has been excluded from three other debates so far this year, but the public television network said he met their criteria.

The rule? He had to hit five percent in a "credible" public opinion poll.

Munger polled five percent in a poll by Survey USA in August. He's hit five percent or more in surveys by Public Policy Polling, though they are not usually considered by UNC-TV.

Pat McCrory has a wider lead in a new poll.

According to a recent poll by Survey USA, the Republican gubernatorial candidate had 49 percent, Democrat Beverly Perdue had 41 percent and Libertarian Mike Munger had five percent.

Five percent were undecided.

"Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, McCrory is up 5 points and is in the lead for the first time; Perdue is down 6 points and trails for the first time," the pollsters write.

The survey of 671 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 8. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. 

John McCain retains a narrow lead in North Carolina.

In a recent poll by Survey USA, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee received 50 percent support and Democratic nominee Barack Obama received 45 percent. Two percent chose "Other" and three percent were undecided.

The pollsters say a shift has occured in independent voters since it's previous poll eight weeks ago. Then McCain led by nine points among the 15 percent of likely voters who identified as independent, but now Obama leads by two points.

Other recent polls show McCain with a similar lead, including ones by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, the conservative Civitas Institute and Rasmussen Reports.

The poll of 676 likely registered voters was taken July 12 through July 14. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.  

The gubernatorial race remains a dead heat.

According to a recent poll by Survey USA, Democratic nominee Beverly Perdue had 47 percent, Republican nominee Pat McCrory had 46 percent and Libertarian Mike Munger had three percent. Four percent were undecided.

The results mostly line up with recent polls by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and the conservative Civitas Institute, which have also showed a tight race.

The poll showed a significant gender gap, with McCrory leading by 11 points among men and Perdue leading by 12 points among women.

The poll of 676 likely registered voters was taken July 12 through July 14. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. 

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole maintains a double-digit lead.

In a recent poll by SurveyUSA, the Salisbury Republican received 54 percent of support, while Democratic rival Kay Hagan received 42 percent. Another four percent were undecided.

The pollsters say one in four Democrats crossover to vote for Dole.

The results match other recent polls by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, the conservative Civitas Institute and Rasmussen Reports, which have all showed Dole regaining a comfortable lead since a brief Hagan bump during the May primary.

The poll of 676 likely registered voters was taken July 12 through July 14. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Barack Obama is losing ground in North Carolina.

The Democratic presidential candidate was once figured to do well here, but three recent public opinion polls show Hillary Clinton closing the gap.

Raleigh's Public Policy Polling found his one-time lead of 25 points had decreased to 12. A SurveyUSA poll shows him ahead by 5, and Rasmussen Reports has his lead at 14.

Most of the loss has been among white voters, which voters attribute to the recent flare-up over Rev. Jeremiah Wright. 

"The more Obama becomes a black candidate or the candidate of blacks, the more support that we see falling off among some segments of the white population," said Duke University politics professor Kerry Haynie.

Ace Smith, Clinton's state director, said she still has an uphill battle. (N&O) 

A new poll shows the Democratic Senate candidates in a dead heat.

SurveyUSA's latest polls shows state Sen. Kay Hagan and Jim Neal virtually tied in the race for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Hagan and Neal are essentially tied, with her receiving 21 percent support and him 20 percent. Lesser-known candidates Duskin Lassiter, Marcus Williams and Howard Staley trail with six percent, five percent and four percent, respectively.

Forty-five percent of voters were undecided.

The poll of 725 likely voters was conducted April 5-7. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percent.

Automated polls are like fast food: Cheap and easy, but not always nutritious.

That was the take of polling expert Tom Guterbock, a sociology professor and director of the Center for Survey Research at the University of Virginia.

Though Interactive Voice Response, or IVR polling, has been around for a while, Guterbock said it's really taken off in this election cycle.

In North Carolina, Raleigh firm Public Policy Polling and national pollsters SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports have used IVR to poll in the presidential primary and the Senate and gubernatorial races.

Guterbock raised several concerns about IVR: 1) Pollsters can't verify who answered the phone. 2) Issues must be simplified for touch-tone answers. 3) It can't handle complex responses.

On the other hand, IVR polling can be more accurate on sensitive questions where respondents may be afraid to tell the truth, such as teen smoking. And on "horse-race" polls about candidates, he said complexity is not as much of an issue.

"In polling, we're always debating the trade-off in quality of information versus the cost of gathering it," he said. "IVR is far lower in cost and gives reasonably accurate information, but very few people think it gives more accurate information than regular polling."

Overall, he said "the jury is still out."

Markos Moulitsas Zúniga also chimed in on North Carolina.

After a staffer for Hillary Clinton was quoted saying that Tar Heels would not be in play in the November election, the liberal blogger added his two cents Wednesday:

Should we write off all those states? North Carolina and Nebraska can absolutely be competitive. According to SurveyUSA, North Carolina is currently only a 47-45 McCain state against Obama. And given the torrid growth of the state's Research Triangle, the Democratic gains in the state's 2006 mid-term elections at both the state and federal levels, and the overall negative climate for Republicans, NC is _absolutely_ in play. Even Clinton's 8-point deficit in the state in that SUSA poll suggests that it is the case.