Wake County likely will gain two seats in the N.C. House of Representatives and a Senate seat after the next census in 2010, according to an analysis by UNC's Program on Public Life, with some help by bill drafting director Gerry Cohen.

Mecklenburg County is the other big winner, adding at least one and, possibly, two new House seats, according to the data. The counties surrounding the two largest urban centers also are poised to pick up at least a portion of a seat and wield more influence in the legislature.

After the census, the legislature redraws its districts. Those districts all must have roughly the same number of residents, so growing urban centers, with their dense population, require more legislative seats to keep the districts equally sized.

Its the metropolitanization of North Carolina.

North Carolina's population is expected to hit 9.6 million in the 2010 census, a 19 percent increase from a decade ago. Wake County, however, is on track to show 50 percent growth. Mecklenburg is expected to show 31 percent.

The N.C. Institute for Constitutional Law will consider redistricting.

The think tank will examine the constitutional and practical implications of Congressional redistricting at a May 7 program.

Former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and N.C. Coalition for Lobbying and Government Reform director Jane Pinsky will use the program to advocate for a nonpartisan independent redistricting commission.

A panel will include legislative drafting director Gerry Cohen, Southern Coalition for Social Justice director Anita Earls, UNC-Chapel Hill law professor Robert Joyce, Common Cause director Bob Phillips, and attorneys Thomas Farr and Carl Thurman III.

Recent decisions by the North Carolina and U.S. supreme courts have thrown some kinks in redistricting plans.

"A truly independent redistricting commission may be just the answer to provide constitutional districts for the future," said Orr in a statement.

The program will be held from 11:30 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the Raleigh Country Club. 

A bill filed this session would establish an independent commission to draw the state's district lines.

The goal would be to avoid the contentious and litigious debate that typically accompanies the required changes to the state's legislative districts, said Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Lewisville Republican and senate sponsor of the bill. House and Senate Republicans said they believe the bill and others similar to it would curb gerrymandering.

"The big problem is it allows legislators to chose their voters and not vice versa," Brunstetter said.

The state constitution currently calls for the legislature to change districts after the federal decennial census. The idea is to have legislative districts reflect changes in population.

More after the jump.

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* Charlotte Observer editorialist Taylor Batten on legislative redistricting: "The referees are the very players whose future is at stake."

* Bowhunters excited to sling bows and arrows on Sunday, but not everyone is keen about allowing rifle hunting on the Sabbath. 

* Observers say Gov. Beverly Perdue is off to a strong start, energetic, centrist with "almost a Schwarzenegger-style self confidence." 

* Bill would require contractors eligible for federal stimulus money in North Caorlina to verify their employees' immigration status.

Which state bills have the most support?

Recent surveys by the Elon University Poll, the conservative Civitas Institute and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling have shown broad agreement on a number of issues.

Below, the percentage in support and the corresponding bill:

H.B. 361: Defense of Marriage (76 percent, Civitas)

S.B. 155: Community College Can't Admit Illegal Aliens (74 percent, PPP)

H.B. 88: Healthy Youth Act (69 percent, PPP)

H.B. 2: Prohibit Smoking in Public & Work Places. (67 percent, Elon; 64 percent PPP)

S.B. 12: Ban Mobile Phone Use While Driving (66 percent, Elon)

H.B. 35: Independent Redistricting Commission (55 percent, Civitas)

Correction: A previous version of this post included S.B. 161, which would overturn the moratorium on the death penalty. Polling data is conflicted on this issue, so it has been removed from the list.

What does North Carolina think?

Recent polls by the conservative Civitas Institute show significant agreement on a number of issues that are before the legislature.

Below, the percentage who agreed with a sentiment:

76: Support a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. 

75: The legislature should be broadcast live on TV, like C-SPAN. 

73: Political candidates should fund their own campaigns instead of using public financing. 

59: Members of the legislature should stick with two-year terms. 

58: Hunting should not be allowed on Sundays in North Carolina.

55: The state should set up an independent redistricting commission. 

51: Oppose a constitutional amendment to let the governor appoint the schools superintendent.

The poll of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 16-19 by TelOpinion Research of Alexandria, Va. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

As the state approaches the 2010 Census, the General Assembly will begin the process of drawing up legislative and Congressional districts for the following decade.

Two Republican legislators have suggested alternative methods.

Sen. Pete Brunstetter of Forysth County has proposed putting that power in the hands of an independent commission, while Rep. Nelson Dollar of Cary has again suggested allowing any citizen to submit their own plan.

Brunstetter's plan would create an 11-member commission with four Democrats, four Republicans and three others not affliated with either party. Leaders of each party would submit a list of names and strike others, as in a jury pool, with the final picks made by a lottery.

It would also restrict commission members and their relatives from running for office or working as a lobbyist for three years.

"We want to go out of our way to make sure the commission is independent," he said.

Dollar, meantime, has again filed a bill that would allow private citizens to turn in their redistricting plans and have an existing state commission designated by the governor score them based on an objective point system.

"Let's put this more in the hands of the people and not have it be driven so much by the politics of whichever party is in charge," he said.

* Charlotte Observer columnist Jack Betts says lobbyist Roger Bone was "an honest man who told legislators the truth."

* Asheville Citizen-Times reporter Jordan Schrader spots Mike Easley at U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler's fundraiser.

* WUNC radio reporter Laura Leslie sees a lot of pink for Coach Kay Yow at the legislative building.

* Progressive commentator Molly Diggins wonders if North Carolina will push for tougher fuel efficiency standards.

* Democratic consultant Gary Pearce argues legislators will be cautious so they can control 2010 redistricting.

North Carolina may have a 13-member delegation for the near future.

Although the state is growing rapidly, a recent report by Election Data Services said that it may not add another Congressional seat after the 2010 Census.

"Change for the State of North Carolina is more tentative; it would pick up a seat in two of the mid-term projection models, but would fail to increase in both the long-term and short-term population models," the service wrote.

After the 2000 Census, North Carolina added its 13th seat, which U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, a Raleigh Democrat, was then elected to fill in 2002.

Along with Florida, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Washington, it is considered to be in the running for an additional seat, while states such as California, Illinois and New York may lose a seat.

Aside from the additional representation, an extra Congressional seat would also boost North Carolina's role in the presidential election process by giving the state an additional elector.

Hat Tip: Tom Jensen

North Carolina could gain a Congressional seat in 2010.

Two different forecasters predict that Congress will give the state a 14th U.S. representative after the next Census, based on current population growth, the Myrtle Beach Sun News reports.

Clark Benson of Polidata Political Data Analysis said the state could get a new seat, although it could be bumped off the the list by Pennsylvania, Washington or California.

And Kimball W. Brace of Election Data Services said two of his three models showed a new seat for North Carolina.

If a new district were drawn, it could be around either Wake or Mecklenburg counties, both of which have seen rapid growth in recent years.

The U.S. Census Bureau will present the data to Congress around the start of 2011.

Hat Tip: Carolina Politics Online