Who will win North Carolina?

As we've said before, anyone who says they know is lying because there are just too many variables at play in the presidential race here.

Below, Dome looks at the arguments for Republican John McCain taking the state on Nov. 4. To see our arguments for Democrat Barack Obama, see this earlier post.

HISTORY: This is a Red State. North Carolina has not gone for a Democrat since 1976. Jimmy Carter was a Southern governor boosted by post-Watergate anger. Bill Clinton's efforts in 1992 were for naught. Neither did well in their second try.

DEMOGRAPHICS: North Carolina is changing, but it's not changed yet. Sure, a lot of Northeasterners have moved here in recent years, but a significant portion of the state's voters are still native conservatives. Maybe in 2012 or 2016, but not now.

RACE: Obama's boost from higher black turnout will be more than offset by the reluctance of a percentage of white voters. Harvey Gantt lost Senate races twice and the most recent black statewide elected official was Ralph Campbell, who lost in 2004.

SUB-ROSA CAMPAIGN: McCain may not have spent as much on TV and radio ads, but his campaign and the Republican National Committee have flooded the state with negative robocalls and mailers. They're not getting the same publicity, but they could work.

PALIN: McCain may not be beloved by socially conservative Democrats, but his running mate is. Sarah Palin's rallies have drawn huge and enthusiastic crowds, and she may bring many of those same folks back to the polling places on Election Day as well.

MILITARY: McCain is a former prisoner of war with a lot of expertise in foreign policy. He's tailor-made for the state's veterans and active-duty service members at Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, not to mention members of the National Guard.

PUNDITS: Democratic political consultant Gary Pearce, Republican consultant Carter Wrenn, and Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza all say that Obama won't win North Carolina. Most others will only say Obama could win here.

Who's in the crowd at Barack Obama's Raleigh event?

Several big-name North Carolina legislators, judges and candidates are at the Kerr Scott Building to hear Obama speak.

Hampton Dellinger, a Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, is sitting with his father, former U.S. Solicitor General Walter Dellinger.

Other notables include U.S. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, who has campaigned for Obama, Reps. Dan Blue and Ty Harrell, former state Auditor Ralph Campbell, Wake County Commissioner Harold Webb, former N.C. Supreme Court Justice Willis Whichard, state appeals court judge Jim Wynn and former UNC Board of Governors Chairman Brad Wilson.

Walter Dalton received the endorsements of several black leaders.

The candidate for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor was endorsed by the George C. Simkins Political Action Committee, a major African-American PAC in Greensboro.

He also been endorsed by former U.S. Rep. Eva Clayton, former state Auditor Ralph Campbell and the entire state Senate Black Caucus: Sens. Charlie Dannelly, Katie Dorsett, Tony Foriest, Malcolm Graham, Ed Jones, Vern Malone, Floyd McKissick and Larry Shaw.

Dalton has been a state senator since 1996.

"I am extremely honored to have the endorsement of the Simkins Committee and African-American leaders across the state," Dalton said in a statement. "Their support reflects my commitment to making the lives of all North Carolinians better and creating opportunities for everyone to succeed."

How would Barack Obama do in North Carolina?

An undergraduate thesis at UNC-Chapel Hill from 2005 by Raleigh Democratic pollster Tom Jensen suggests some reasons why he might not do well.

After doing regression analyses of 20 statewide black candidates between 2001 and 2004, Jensen concluded that race was not "statistically significant" when compared to incumbency, previous experience and party affiliation.

Still, he found that North Carolina was the state where race was "most significant."

His research was based on Ralph Campbell's narrow loss to Les Merritt in the state auditor's race in 2004.

He estimated a white Democratic incumbent would get approximately 55.5 percent of the vote, so Campbell's race had a 5.9 percent negative impact. (Merritt received 50.4 percent; Campbell, 49.6 percent.)

"This made the difference in denying Campbell reelection, while his fellow white incumbents were all reelected, usually easily," he said. "The only variable with a larger negative impact on candidate success in North Carolina is having no political experience."

Ralph Campbell has endorsed Janet Cowell's bid for state treasurer.

The three-term state auditor, who was the first African-American elected to statewide office, is supporting the state senator's campaign.

"After looking at the platform and qualifications of the candidates for State Treasurer it is obvious that Janet Cowell is the results based candidate that North Carolina needs," he said in a statement.

Both Campbell and Cowell are former members of the Raleigh City Council, though they did not serve at the same times.

Campbell lost a 2004 race to state Auditor Les Merritt, but he remains active in local politics.

The N.C. GOP has joined the fray over State Auditor Les Merritt's public service announcements that tell people to report fraud, waste and abuse of state resources to his office's hotline.

State Republican leaders dismissed their Democratic counterparts' claims that the ads promote Merritt's campaign, reports Dan Kane.

Merritt does not appear in the two TV ads, which began running this week. But state Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek said the auditor is promoting his re-election by using the phrase "The Taxpayers' Watchdog." That's how Merritt has referred to himself on the campaign trail.

Chris McClure, the NCGOP's chief of staff, notes that Meek, in an unrelated news release, used that same phrase to identify Merritt's predecessor, Ralph Campbell.

"I am honored that Ralph Campbell has agreed to serve as Treasurer of the North Carolina Democratic Party," Meek said in the release. "As State Auditor, Ralph Campbell served as the taxpayers' watchdog and developed a reputation for his fairness, accountability and integrity."

McClure said Meek's actions this week amount to "rank hypocrisy."

"To call Jerry Meek's attacks on Les Merritt duplicitous would be too kind," McClure said in a news release. "Meek is still chewing sour grapes because Les Merritt won election to the State Auditor's office three years ago."

He also noted that lawmakers passed a law preventing public officials from appearing in public service announcements after complaints regarding appearances by Gov. Mike Easley, Attorney General Roy Cooper and State Treasurer Richard Moore, all Democrats.

When the House passed its $20 billion budget proposal last month, Gov. Mike Easley reportedly criticized them for not having a "laser-like" focus on education.

But he may wish they kept the blinders on when it comes to one of his signature education programs, the More at Four pre-kindergarten initiative, Dan Kane reports.

The House budget includes a provision that calls for a study commission of early childhood programs that would specifically look at the "feasibility and desireability" of consolidating More at Four with Smart Start, the child care initiative started by Easley's predecessor, Jim Hunt. Smart Start also seeks to better prepare children for school.

Rep. Rick Glazier, a Fayetteville Democrat and an education budget writer, said the study provision emerged during budget hearings as lawmakers talked about similarities among both programs.

It's unclear whether the House provision will stand once a state budget is passed. Senate budget writers did not include it in their proposal, which passed that chamber last week.

More after the jump.

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