The Cook Political Report has downgraded U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry's re-election chances.

The nonpartisan political analysts have changed the Cherryville Republican's race against Hickory attorney Daniel Johnson from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."

The report still rates Concord Republican Rep. Robin Hayes' rematch with Biscoe schoolteacher Larry Kissell as a "Toss Up."

All other Congressional races are rated as solidly favoring the incumbent, whether Republican or Democrat.

"While it's not likely that a majority of the races moved from "Solid" to "Likely" Republican will become competitive by November, the poor national climate for the GOP and the DCCC's unprecedented financial edge makes even very difficult districts for Democrats worth keeping tabs on," wriets House Editor David Wasserman.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently began airing radio ads attacking McHenry and Hayes.

That's not George W. Bush on your radio.

The Democrats this week are running a radio ad campaign — featuring a Bush impersonator — that criticizes GOP Congressmen Robin Hayes of Concord and Patrick McHenry of Cherryville for being too cozy with oil companies, Rob Christensen reports.

The ad goes like this:

"Hayes-y ... 'W' here. Wanted to thank you for continuing to supprot the Big Oil Energy Agenda. 'Preciate you voting to keep giving billions in tax breaks to the big oil companies. Sure gasoline is over four bucks a gallone and the oil companies are making record profits, but what’s good for Big Oil is good for America, right?"

The ad is being paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and is scheduled to run a week. The ad is being used 13 Congressional districts including those of Hayes and McHenry.

The good news for Republicans in two new polls: Their candidates are ahead.

The good news for Democrats: But not by that much.

A new poll by the conservative Civitas Institute shows Republican presidential candidate John McCain and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole leading opponents Barack Obama and Kay Hagan. Republican Pat McCrory is virtually tied with Democrat Beverly Perdue in the governor's race, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer reports.

But in a state George W. Bush twice won with 56 percent, Obama trailed McCain by only four points in the poll. Hagan trailed Dole by 10.

Dome has learned more details of Tim Pawlenty's visit.

The Republican governor of Minnesota came for private meeting with U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes on Friday, then held a fundraiser lunch with him in Concord.

Afterward, he met with U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, then held a fundraiser and reception with him at a private home in Mooresville.

McHenry said in a statement that he appreciated the help.

"Governor Pawlenty has a well-deserved reputation as one of the most effective leaders in America, and is a rising star in national politics," he said. "Anyone who appreciates good government grounded in fiscal discipline can appreciate his strong record as governor, and I appreciate his trip to North Carolina to support my campaign."

One of the top tier of John McCain's potential vice presidential picks was in town last week.

Tim Pawlenty, the Republican governor of Minnesota, came to North Carolina to raise money for U.S. Reps. Robin Hayes and Patrick McHenry.

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza says the trip is part of a not-so-subtle effort to raise his profile as McCain makes his decision. 

Hayes and McHenry are among the more conservative members of North Carolina's delegation, and both face competitive races this fall.

Hayes has a rematch with Biscoe schoolteacher Larry Kissell. After winning a Republican primary, McHenry faces Hickory attorney Daniel Johnson.  

Politics magazine named Dee Stewart one of its 2008 rising stars.

He helped U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry win his first campaign for Congress and worked for Bill Graham in his run for governor. Stewart runs a political consulting and public relations firm in Raleigh, Lynn Bonner reports.

At 25, he became one of the youngest executive directors of a state party in the country. Among his proudest professional achievements: getting some 40,000 people out to the 1999 Iowa Straw Poll, which set an attendance record for a political fundraiser and helped cement the straw poll's status as the kick-off to the GOP presidential primary season. At 27, Dee took a big risk by leaving Iowa to start his own firm in North Carolina. "I literally went from executive director of the Iowa GOP to the absolute bottom of the ladder," he says. 

The trade magazine for political consultants put 10 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and five others under 35 who have made a mark in consulting and campaigns on their stars list.

The American Conservative Union ranked two North Carolina representatives tops.

U.S. Reps. Patrick McHenry and Virginia Foxx both scored 100 percent on the conservative group's annual Congressional ratings — two out of only 62 representatives to land among its "best and brightest" for the 2007 session.

At the same time, four Congressional Democrats — Reps. David Price, Brad Miller, Mel Watt and G.K. Butterfield — scored 0 percent, landing among the group's "worst of the worst."

The ratings were based on votes on a minimum wage hike, stem-cell research, the Iraq war, Amtrak funding, earmark reform, border security, support of Planned Parenthood and energy policy, among other things.

The rest of the delegation was in between. Among Republicans, Rep. Sue Myrick scored a 96, Rep. Howard Coble an 83, Rep. Robin Hayes a 79, and Rep. Walter Jones a 71. Among Democrats, Reps. Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler, both Blue Dog Democrats, scored 44 and Rep. Bob Etheridge an 8.

Sens. Richard Burr and Elizabeth Dole both scored a 92.

The state’s Democratic congressional delegation hosted a fundraiser this morning in Washington for Daniel Johnson, a candidate for the 10th Congressional District seat.

Johnson is challenging Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville in November.

The fundraiser was held at Tortilla Coast, a popular restaurant about a block from the House row of office buildings on Capitol Hill. Most tickets ranged from $250 to $1,000 a plate, though House staffers could get in for $100, reports Barb Barrett.

The event was hosted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its chairman, Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, along with U.S. Reps. David Price, Bob Etheridge, Mel Watt, Heath Shuler, Brad Miller and G.K. Butterfield.

Of Tar Heel representatives, only U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre’s name was omitted. Spokesman Dean Mitchell said McIntyre was a host, but that the invitation was sent before the office’s official approval. McIntyre was not able to attend.

State Republicans jumped on the fundraiser as proof that Johnson is a Washington-backed politician. GOP Chairwoman Linda Daves today wrote Johnson a letter:

Only a few days after issuing a patently false press release claiming that your pockets have not been stuffed with cash from Washington liberals and attacking Congressman McHenry for pointing that out, I am shocked and appalled to discover that you are in Washington today for a fundraiser hosted by several liberal, Washington politicians.

You owe Congressman McHenry and the people of Western North Carolina an apology.

Candidates are usually coy about how they expect to do on Election Day.

Even if they think they're going to win, they rarely say so publically. They might say something bland about feeling good about the campaign they've run or looking forward to seeing the results on election night.

But not Patrick McHenry.

McHenry, the incumbent in the 10th Congressional District, sent out a release today saying he will "trounce" his Republican primary opponent, Lance Sigmon. The release cites a poll showing McHenry with a big lead in the GOP primary.

A TV ad from U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry calls attacks by Republican rival Lance Sigmon "despicable."