The FiveThirtyEight blog ranks Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr's seat as the 11th most likely to change parties in next year's Senate elections.

The blog, which analyzes polling data, reports that Republicans are now more likely to gain seats than lose seats in next year's elections. Burr's seat ranks 11 of 15 on the blog's August ranking in likelihood that it would change party. That's an improvement for Burr, whose seat was listed by the blog as seventh most likely to change parties in May. 

Citing analysis by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver says that Burr's low-name recognition and low approval numbers suggest that his chances will depend on whether the election is an anti-incumbent year. 

That may be especially true since the Democrats are still scrambling to find a credible challenger to Burr. Rob Christensen reports that Democrats are "going through an awkward dance to find a candidate to go toe-to-toe with Burr in 2010."

"There is a vacuum," said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist in Raleigh. "Nobody has really stepped in to fill it, nobody with the name or the money or the backing to put an end to all of this."

So the list of potential Democratic candidates continues to grow. There are little-known figures such as former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Lexington, Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis and Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy who seem eager to jump into the race.

And there are potential candidates who are better known, but seem less sure. They include U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge of Lillington, former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker of Sanford, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall of Lillington.

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* Democratic number-cruncher Nate Silver ranks first-term Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr's seat eighth most likely to change parties in 2010.

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Democratic bloggers are mulling their chances of unseating Sen. Richard Burr.

On the statistics-minded FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver ranks the Winston-Salem Republican's seat as eighth most likely to switch parties:

Burr occupies North Carolina's buyer's remorse seat, which has changed parties five times in the past five elections; his tepid approval ratings suggest that he might not escape the curse. Still, Tarheel Democrats won't have the benefit of Barack Obama's coattails in 2010, nor are they likely to run into another campaign run as ineptly as Elizabeth Dole's.

But Triad uber-blogger Ed Cone is not so sure.

"People misunderestimate Burr at their own peril," he writes.

And Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen thinks all the talk of state Treasurer Richard Moore running against Attorney General Roy Cooper for the Democratic nomination is bunk.

"I can't imagine Richard Moore is going to run for the US Senate unless the Democratic field is cleared of viable candidates except for him," he writes. "He already lost one statewide primary, another loss in one would definitely be the end of his political career."

Two liberal bloggers came the closest to predicting North Carolina's presidential race.

Nate Silver, a statistics nut who runs the Web site FiveThirtyEight.com, and Kirk Ross, who writes the Exile on Jones Street blog about the legislature, both predicted Barack Obama would win the state. Silver said by 0.6 percentage points; Ross by 0.5 to 1.5 points.

The actual margin, according to uncertified results from the State Board of Elections, was 0.3 points.

The two were among 16 bloggers, pundits, professors and consultants who predicted an Obama win in the Tar Heel state, according to an informal tally by Dome the week before the election.

Because of the narrow margin, the 13 who predicted a McCain win (including the Eight Ball) shouldn't be too ashamed, except maybe the four conservatives who predicted a win by three or more points — Sen. Richard Burr, Red State editor Erick Erickson, blogger Ed Morrissey and editor Fred Barnes.

And no points go to the five mainstream sources who refused to make a prediction (Rothenberg Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Cook Political Report, New York Times and MSNBC.)

The racial composition of North Carolina's registered voters is changing.

According to an analysis of voter rolls on the Democratic-leaning political blog FiveThirtyEight.com, the percentage of black voters increased from 20.3 percent to 21.4 percent, and the percentage of "other" voters went from 3 percent to 3.4 percent. 

At the same time, the number of white voters decreased from 76.7 percent to 75.2 percent.

Although the percentage changes are overall fairly small, blogger Nate Silver writes that they have probably helped Democrat Barack Obama gain a slight edge over Republican John McCain.

"Assuming that Obama captures 35 percent of white voters, 95 percent of black voters, and 60 percent of "other" voters, the change in the racial composition of the electorate since the first of the year is worth a net of about 1.5 points to Obama in his race against McCain," he writes.

Several recent polls have put McCain and Obama within a few points of each other.