Marc Ambinder reports some exit poll data:

Some exit poll data from North Carolina: 11% of NC voters are new; three out of four are supporting Obama. African American turnout is a lower share of the electorate; 22% in 2008, but Obama's getting 97% among them. McCain is winning white voters by a share of two to one; late deciders broke toward Obama.

Remember that exit polls have been notoriously unreliable in the past.

Marc Ambinder says John McCain may be targeting North Carolina today:

So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?

It has nothing to do with Bountville.

It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.

The Sarah Palin rally on Saturday in Raleigh was the last official McCain event in North Carolina.

Marc Ambinder makes an interesting observation:

Who was conspicuously absent at John McCain's event in Cumberland Co. tonight?

Elizabeth Dole.

The county went for GWB in '04 -- the state hasn't gone for a Democratic candidate since Carter.

She didn't think that appearing with her nominee would help her chances to keep the Senate seat. Or she didn't go out of her way to get there.

The Atlantic Monthly says North Carolina's a "true toss-up."

The Washington-based magazine includes the state in four states "where historical voting patterns are not asserting themselves," moving it from "Leans McCain," according to blogger Marc Ambinder.

Seems to be a big suburbanite swing among women in particular; still, the big question in NC is whether there'll be enough African Americans, young voters and Latinos to turn the state blue if the economy remains the top issue and if the Obama machine can turn out the votes. Obama has been here twice in as many weeks.

Karl Rove's firm has also labeled North Carolina a toss-up, as has MSNBC's editors. 

The big three are not yet convinced. Congressional Quarterly rates the state "Leans Republican." The Rothenberg Political Report ranks it as "Leans McCain." And the Cook Political Report lists is as "Leans Republican."

Marc Ambinder says North Carolina's Senate race is not competitive yet.

In a rundown of a dozen Senate races around the country, the Atlantic blogger puts the race between state Sen. Kay Hagan and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole "on the margins" — his lowest ranking for competitiveness:

Democrats insist that this race will competitive and that Kay Hagan will, even if she doesn’t beat Sen. Elizabeth Dole, come within a few points. Watch for both parties to put money into the race. Prediction: if the presidential race is somehow competitive in NC, the Senate race will be, too. 

Hat Tip: Mark Binker

Does Barack Obama have a chance in North Carolina in the general election?

A spokesman for the Republican National Committee told Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic Monthly that the Democratic presidential candidate is overstating its ability to win here:

Alex Conant, a spokesman there, wanted to get this response on the record: "the Senate’s 'most liberal' member is not going to win a state Republicans carried by double digits in the last two cycles and haven't lost since voters wore bell-bottoms."

Ambinder notes that Bush won North Carolina by 12 points in 2004 and 14 points in 2000, while Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to win here.

"But the state is-a-changin'," he adds. "The counties around Raleigh, Durham and Fayetteville are growing very fast, and suburbs like Clayton and Holly Springs might, under the right circumstances, vote for the right Democrat."

Holly Springs, maybe, but Clayton is likely to stay Republican red.

From the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder:

Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats. Two days ago, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, told me that the Obama turnout model assumed about 150-155,000 people too. Clearly, the more independents who turn out, the better for Obama. The more Democrats -- the more _new_ Democrats -- the better for Hillary Clinton. An Edwards aide said the campaign predicts that 135-140,000 Dems will caucus.

Still, he adds that higher turnout doesn't automatically benefit Obama, since it could come from traditional Democrats backing Edwards or Clinton.