Who will win North Carolina?

As we've said before, anyone who says they know is lying because there are just too many variables at play in the presidential race here.

Below, Dome looks at the arguments for Republican John McCain taking the state on Nov. 4. To see our arguments for Democrat Barack Obama, see this earlier post.

HISTORY: This is a Red State. North Carolina has not gone for a Democrat since 1976. Jimmy Carter was a Southern governor boosted by post-Watergate anger. Bill Clinton's efforts in 1992 were for naught. Neither did well in their second try.

DEMOGRAPHICS: North Carolina is changing, but it's not changed yet. Sure, a lot of Northeasterners have moved here in recent years, but a significant portion of the state's voters are still native conservatives. Maybe in 2012 or 2016, but not now.

RACE: Obama's boost from higher black turnout will be more than offset by the reluctance of a percentage of white voters. Harvey Gantt lost Senate races twice and the most recent black statewide elected official was Ralph Campbell, who lost in 2004.

SUB-ROSA CAMPAIGN: McCain may not have spent as much on TV and radio ads, but his campaign and the Republican National Committee have flooded the state with negative robocalls and mailers. They're not getting the same publicity, but they could work.

PALIN: McCain may not be beloved by socially conservative Democrats, but his running mate is. Sarah Palin's rallies have drawn huge and enthusiastic crowds, and she may bring many of those same folks back to the polling places on Election Day as well.

MILITARY: McCain is a former prisoner of war with a lot of expertise in foreign policy. He's tailor-made for the state's veterans and active-duty service members at Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, not to mention members of the National Guard.

PUNDITS: Democratic political consultant Gary Pearce, Republican consultant Carter Wrenn, and Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza all say that Obama won't win North Carolina. Most others will only say Obama could win here.

N.C. Rep. Nelson Dollar, a Cary Republican, is being hit with a mailer paid for by the N.C. Democratic Party that claims he's no friend to military veterans.

The mailer shows a man with a prosthetic arm — its pincers clasping a small U.S. flag. "He Served With Honor," the ad says. "But Nelson Dollar Cut His Benefits," Dan Kane reports.

Dollar said today that the claim is "patently false."

"The Democrats have used images of our veterans and men and women in uniform in a way that is disrespectful of their service to our nation," Dollar said in a news release. "These mailers fail to cite any bills or votes to back up their claims and I can assure you in my four years in the House no bill has reached the Floor which would 'slash any veteran's benefits.'"

He cited several bills that he supported that helped veterans and the military, including a property tax break for disabled veterans that was included in this year's state budget.

Democratic Party spokeswoman Kerra Bolton said the party stands by the mailer.

She cited his vote against the previous year's budget, which included money for programs and services that benefit military families and help foster economic development in military communities, but she did not mention anything that amounted to a cut in veterans' benefits.

More after the jump.

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A mailer criticizes Kay Hagan's ties to major unions.

The Employee Freedom Action Committee, an anti-union advocacy group, sent a mailer to North Carolina voters noting that the Democratic Senate candidate "has taken more than $175,000 from Big Labor Bosses."

"Big labor bosses have a history of corruption and sexual discrimination," the mailer says, "and Kay Hagan supports their radical agenda."

The group is particularly concerned with a card check bill that Hagan supports that would make it easier to unionize by signing cards instead of through a secret-ballot election.

It has previously run a full-page ad in the N&O.

Hagan has received donations from the National Eductaion Association, the American Federation of Teachers, the Communications Workers of America, the International Association of Fire Fighters, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the Teamsters, among other unions.

A mailer criticizes U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole on Social Security.

Majority Action, a liberal 527 group, sent a mailer to North Carolina voters criticizing a plan Dole backed in 2002 to allow young workers to invest a portion of their Social Security contributions in personal savings accounts.

"Elizabeth Dole's plan to privatize our Social Security and invest it in the stock market is a real gamble these days," it says.

The mailer shows dice with the Social Security logo on them and the front page of The N&O from a day when the stock market plunged.

"$18.6 billion flows into the North Carolina economy from Social Security each year, supporting nearly 1.6 million residents," it reads inside. "Elizabeth Dole wants to eliminate that guarantee and risk our retirement in the stock market."

Beverly Perdue and Barack Obama are side-by-side in a new mailer.

The N.C. Democratic Party paid for the mailer, which feature's the party's gubernatorial and presidential candidates and the words "Democrats we trust to fight for us."

The photograph of the two dates to the run-up to the May primary, when it was used by the Perdue campaign in a mailer targeted at black voters.

In a sign of how competitive North Carolina has become, the new mailer was sent to a larger group of voters, including unaffiliated and white voters.

"Bev Perdue's campaign to create jobs and fight for our economy has been endorsed by the leaders we trust, including Senator Barack Obama, North Carolina teachers, police, nurses and over a dozen mayors across the state, including former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt and current Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Susan Burgess," it reads on the back side.

The N.C. Republican Party criticizes Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan's views on gay marriage in a recent mailer.

What the mailer says: Front page: Image of two men's hands with rings that say 'guy' on them. "With Kay Hagan and liberal judges, we're one step closer to legal gay marriages."

Inside pages: Pictures of two cake figurines of men in tuxedos, Hagan and donors Wendy Kaminer and Woody Kaplan. "Liberal Kay Hagan opposes constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in North Carolina. Across America, liberal judges are overturning state laws banning gay marriage. In North Carolina a state constitutional amendment is needed to protect traditional marriage and prevent liberal judges from imposing their gay marriage agenda on the state. Kay Hagan is actively opposed to this needed amendment to ban gay marriage in North Carolina. Hagan opposes defining a marriage as a union between one man and one woman in North Carolina."

"Maybe that helps explain why Kay Hagan flew to Boston to pick up campaign cash from leaders of the Godless Americans PAC, Wendy Kaminer and Woody Kaplan. The Godless American PAC actively supports political candidates who support their liberal agenda to legalize gay marriage in North Carolina, remove 'under God' from the Pledge of Allegiance and force the Boy Scouts of America to accept atheists and homosexuals as troop leaders."

"Kay Hagan and Godless Americans PAC, a radical homosexual agenda for North Carolina. 1. Hold a fundraiser in Boston at home of Godless American PAC leaders. 2. Elect Kay Hagan to the U.S. Senate. 3. Legalize Gay Marriage in North Carolina. 4. Force Boy Scouts of America to make homosexuals troop leaders. 5. Remove 'under God' from the Pledge of Allegiance."

Back page: "Liberal Kay Hagan opposes constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in North Carolina. 'I don't think there's a need for a (state) constitutional amendment [banning gay marriage.]' — Kay Hagan."

The background: The mailer makes several claims about Hagan's beliefs.

GAY MARRIAGE: Gay marriage is currently illegal in North Carolina.

A state law passed in 1871 defines marriage as between "a male and female person." A second law passed in 1996 specifically invalidates same-sex unions.

In California, Connecticut and Massachusetts, state Supreme Court judges have overturned statutes outlawing gay marriage, citing concerns over equality. Except for Florida, every other Southern state has passed an amendment to its state constitution outlawing gay marriage that cannot be overturned by judges.

Starting in 2004, state legislators began introducing bills that would put a similar amendment up for a referendum in North Carolina. House and Senate Democratic leaders sent all 10 bills to die in committee.

In a 2005 interview with the Greensboro News-Record, Hagan called gay marriage "a polarizing issue."

"In North Carolina we have a law saying marriage is between a man and a woman. I don't think there's a need for a (state) constitutional amendment," she said.

A campaign spokeswoman said she continues to oppose a state amendment as well as a similar amendment proposed for the U.S. Constitution.

GODLESS AMERICANS: Hagan attended a Sept. 15 fundraiser in Boston hosted by author Wendy Kaminer and her husband, Woody Kaplan.

Kaplan is on the advisory board of the Godless Americans PAC, whose Web site says it supports candidates who are atheists and supports the separation of religion and government, including a "Godless pledge." It is not clear that Kaminer is a leader of the PAC.

Hagan's campaign said Hagan does not support removing "Under God" from the Pledge of Allegiance.

Her son is an Eagle Scout. Her campaign said that while Hagan opposes discrimination, she believes questions about who can be troop leaders should be left to the Boy Scouts.

Is the mailer accurate? Yes and no. Hagan does not support a constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage and she did attend the fundraiser. But the mailer incorrectly suggests that she shares the views of the Godless Americans PAC on the Pledge of Allegiance and the Boy Scouts.

A mailer criticizes U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole's record on trade.

The glossy eight-page mailer from Majority Action, a liberal 527 group, argues that free trade agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA have led to losses in North Carolina's manufacturing sector.

"After 43 years in Washington, the only job Elizabeth Dole hasn't done is protect ours," it says. "She's sending North Carolina jobs overseas instead."

Inside, the mailer argues that "China was a Third World country when Dole went to Washington," but it has grown into a manufacturing giant because of free trade.

It also says that Dole voted to give tax breaks to companies that outsource, though it does not list any specific bills to back up its claim.

A mailer is criticizing Barack Obama's record on crime.

Paid for by the N.C. Republican Party, the mailer cites Obama's votes on bills related to crime and gangs.

"Obama: He acted more as a friend to criminals than to cops," it says, quoting an editorial from the Investor's Business Daily.

The mailer repeats a tagline from other mailers: "Barack Obama. Not who you think he is."

A mailer is criticizing Kay Hagan for her stance on gay marriage.

Sponsored by the N.C. Republican Party, the mailer features a photograph of two men's hands, with both wearing rings that say "guy" on them.

"With Kay Hagan and liberal judges, we're one step closer to legal gay marriages," the mailer says.

Inside, next to a picture of two figurines of men wearing black suits, it says that Hagan opposed an amendment to the state constitution that would have banned gay marriage.

It also repeats claims from another mailer about Hagan's ties to a group that promotes the rights of atheists, saying that Hagan has "a radical homosexual agenda for North Carolina."

The mailer does not mention the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment, which would add a similar ban to the U.S. Constitution.

Spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan said Hagan opposes both amendments.

"Kay believes that marriage is between a man and a woman, and this is fundamentally a state issue," she said. "She would not support a federal amendment defining marriage. Here in North Carolina, there is a law that she supports that says marriage is defined as a relationship between a man and a woman, and she sees no reason to change that."

The N.C. Republican Party is criticizing Barack Obama on William Ayers.

A mailer sent to North Carolina voters links the Democratic presidential candidate to the former member of the Weather Underground.

"Obama has close ties to domestic terrorist," reads a headline.

The mailer is designed to look like a storybook, showing mug shots of Ayers from 1968 and a recent photo of him wearing a Cubs shirt.

"During his reign of terror, Ayers and his organization bombed the United States Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's house and police stations," the mailer reads.

N.C. Democratic Party chairman Jerry Meek criticized the mailer Monday, saying it is part of the worst "smear campaign" he's seen against Obama, but a GOP spokesman defended it is factual.