Gary Pearce says Ted Kennedy was "both an inspiration and political poison to North Carolina Democrats."

Pearce, writing on his Talking About Politics blog, says Democrats loved Kennedy for the way he unabashedly fought for causes such as civil rights, education and health care.

"But we couldn't afford to be seen in public with him," writes Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist. "As he became more liberal than his brothers ever were, he became toxic in North Carolina."

Pearce describes the 1980 Democratic National Convention, when Gov. Jim Hunt was supporting Jimmy Carter against a challenge by Kennedy. Pearce said they fought the Kennedy camp all week.

"But the last night of convention Kennedy gave the greatest political speech I've ever heard," Pearce wrote.

Former U.S. Commerce Secretary Luther Hodges is leaving shortly for Iraq where he will both teach a business seminar and write a daily blog on his experiences.

Hodges will be a visiting professor at American University at Sulaimani for 10 days, lecturing an advanced course on business and ethics and law. He will also visit Dubai, Rob Christensen reports.

While he is in Iraq, Hodges will be writing a daily blog about what he learns in the town located in the Kurdish dominated north of Iraq. The blog, which will begin Feb. 4th, is called the Tarheel Democracy Dispatch. You can read it here.

"I'm teaching over there for the adventure," said Hodges, who is 72.

The program is being run by the Kenan-Flagler Business School at UNC-Chapel Hill, where Hodges is an adjunct professor.

The blog was the idea of Joyce Kohn, a Raleigh public relations executive.

Hodges hopes to show the "new Iraq."

"If we can see a different Iraq that people are used to seeing," Hodges said, "it might improve all our perspectives."

Hodges is a retired banker and former deputy and acting commerce secretary under President Jimmy Carter. He was a U.S. Senate candidate in 1978. His father was governor of North Carolina and commerce secretary under President John F. Kennedy.

Hodges will arrive in Iraq on Saturday, Feb. 7.

Charlotte Observer columnist Jack Betts recalled Bob Scott:

Scott was a lot of fun to cover. He was the first governor I covered after graduating from college — I still remember the long sideburns he sported shortly after taking office -- and later he chaired the Appalachian Regional Commission in Washington during Jimmy Carter's presidency. Scott liked a good joke and he loved ribbing his friends and his adversaries. Whenever I saw him he'd grin and drawl, "Well, here comes the coarser element."

He writes on This Old State that Scott was "somewhat more conservative than his father, but still liked to shake up the establishment and seemed to revel in firing darts at those in charge."

Harold H. Webb, chairman of the Wake County Board of Commissioners and a former Tuskegee Airman, will have prime seats at the presidential inauguration next week.

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies invited those still living among the flyers who trained as part of the famed segregated unit in World War II, Michael Biesecker reports.

After being drafted out of N.C. A&T State University as a freshman, Webb served two years as a mechanic and gunner in the U.S. Army Air Corps before gaining acceptance at Tuskegee. He was training to be a bomber pilot when the Japanese surrendered and the war ended.

The distinguished record of the all-black Tuskegee airmen during the war helped persuade President Harry Truman to desegregate the U.S. military in 1948.

Webb, 83, had planned to go to the Obama inauguration anyway. He has previously attended the inagurations of presidents Kennedy, Carter and Clinton.

But as a former Tuskegee Airman, he will be a honored guest sitting with former members of Congress in the terrace below the podium where Obama will be sworn in.

"It is an honor to literally have a front row seat to history being made," Webb said in a county media release. "I view the location of our seats as symbolic, because Obama stands on the shoulders of my fellow airmen and other trail blazers that helped pave the way for desegregation and ultimately, his place as the first African-American president."

The Eastern District U.S. attorney usually has a strong political patron.

For most of the last 20 years, the federal prosecutor in Raleigh appointed by the president has been closely tied to Sen. Jesse Helms, except during Democratic administrations.

Here is a list of former U.S. attorneys and their patrons:

George Anderson: (1977-1980) Backed by Democratic Sen. Robert Morgan; appointed by President Jimmy Carter.

Sam Currin: (1981-1987) Former Helms aide. Backed by Helms; appointed by President Ronald Reagan.

Margaret Currin: (1988-1993) The wife of the previous U.S. attorney. Backed by Helms; appointed by Reagan.

Janice McKenzie Cole: (1994-2001) Backed by Democratic U.S. Rep. Eva Clayton; appointed by President Bill Clinton. (No Democratic senator at that time.)

Frank Whitney: (2002-2005) Former Helms legislative counsel. Backed by Republican lawyer Tom Ellis, Helms' longtime political strategist; appointed by President George W. Bush.

George Holding: (2005-present) Former Helms aide and Whitney's No. 2 at U.S. attorney's office. Backed by Ellis; appointed by Bush.

Who will win North Carolina?

As we've said before, anyone who says they know is lying because there are just too many variables at play in the presidential race here.

Below, Dome looks at the arguments for Republican John McCain taking the state on Nov. 4. To see our arguments for Democrat Barack Obama, see this earlier post.

HISTORY: This is a Red State. North Carolina has not gone for a Democrat since 1976. Jimmy Carter was a Southern governor boosted by post-Watergate anger. Bill Clinton's efforts in 1992 were for naught. Neither did well in their second try.

DEMOGRAPHICS: North Carolina is changing, but it's not changed yet. Sure, a lot of Northeasterners have moved here in recent years, but a significant portion of the state's voters are still native conservatives. Maybe in 2012 or 2016, but not now.

RACE: Obama's boost from higher black turnout will be more than offset by the reluctance of a percentage of white voters. Harvey Gantt lost Senate races twice and the most recent black statewide elected official was Ralph Campbell, who lost in 2004.

SUB-ROSA CAMPAIGN: McCain may not have spent as much on TV and radio ads, but his campaign and the Republican National Committee have flooded the state with negative robocalls and mailers. They're not getting the same publicity, but they could work.

PALIN: McCain may not be beloved by socially conservative Democrats, but his running mate is. Sarah Palin's rallies have drawn huge and enthusiastic crowds, and she may bring many of those same folks back to the polling places on Election Day as well.

MILITARY: McCain is a former prisoner of war with a lot of expertise in foreign policy. He's tailor-made for the state's veterans and active-duty service members at Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, not to mention members of the National Guard.

PUNDITS: Democratic political consultant Gary Pearce, Republican consultant Carter Wrenn, and Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza all say that Obama won't win North Carolina. Most others will only say Obama could win here.

John McCain's campaign says the election will be like past ones.

In a conference call with reporters this morning, McCain pollster Bill McInturff said that the breakdown of voters on Election Day will be similar to what it's been over the past 30 years.

He noted that Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton received roughly around 50 percent of the vote.

"It is very hard for a Democrat in a center-right country to get above that number," he said.

He argued that the historical voting patterns will be a "structural barrier" to Democrat Barack Obama winning the presidency.

McCain's national political director, Mike Duhaime, said that a high-level of cooperation between the campaign and the Republican National Committee will offset the spending advantage that Obama has.  

The 2008 elections in North Carolina can be summed up as an analogy.

With Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain both competitive in the state's presidential race, it could turn out that 2008 is like...

* 1932: When Democrat Franklin Roosevelt won the state, presaging a long period of Democratic dominance of North Carolina's electoral votes.

* 1976: When post-Watergate anger helped Democrat Jimmy Carter buck the trend of the Southern Strategy, though the win turned out to be an exception to Republican rule.

* 1992: When Democrat Bill Clinton fought hard for the state and made it competitive, but the underlying Republican tendency handed the win to George H.W. Bush.

There is a fourth possibility, however. Regardless of who wins, this could be the year that kicks off a long period of competitive elections, with both parties trading the state back and forth.

That would be the most unusual possibility in a state that went — with one exception each — for the Democratic candidate every cycle between 1876 and 1964, and for the Republican every cycle between 1968 and 2004.

Dear TV news talking head:

Welcome to North Carolina! We're not used to seeing your kind around here, especially during presidential election years. Heck, the last time North Carolina was a "battleground state" was April of 1865 — when General Sherman's troops came through!

By now, you can confidently rattle off the names of crucial neighborhoods in Cleveland, Miami and Philadelphia with ease, but you may be a little nervous talking about North Carolina. To help you along this election season, we've come up with a quick list of talking points:

RED STATE: North Carolina is typically a red state when it comes to presidential politics. The last time we went for a Democrat was Jimmy Carter in 1976. (To drive this point home, you can remind people that Sen. Jesse Helms was from here.)

PRIMARY FIGHT: This state was crucial in the primary battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton. Obama won the state and, by some accounts, ended Clinton's hopes for a comeback. The primary also left him with a network of supporters here.

ISSUES: With several military bases and a growing Hispanic population, Iraq and immigration once looked like big issues. But these days, it's all about the economy and jobs. The sale of Wachovia and ongoing discontent with free trade are a major factor.

NICKNAMES: Officially, this is "The Old North State." (It's even our state song, though you'd be hard pressed to find someone who knows it.) You'll probably be better off referring to it by our unofficial nickname, The Tar Heel State. (That's two words: Tar Heel.)

TRIVIA: We have 15 electors. We claim Andrew Jackson, James K. Polk and Andrew Johnson as natives, though all three were elected from Tennessee. Two of our recent senators — Elizabeth Dole and John Edwards — ran for president. 

Oh, and there's no such place as Raleigh-Durham. They are two separate cities. (You may be confused because of Winston-Salem or the fact that our airport has that name.)

We hope that helps and we look forward to seeing you soon — maybe in 2012?

— Under the Dome 

Freedom's Watch is continuing to tie Kay Hagan to Jimmy Carter.

The Washington-based conservative advocacy group has sent a mailer to North Carolina voters linking Hagan's support for a windfall profit tax on oil companies to the former president's proposal.

"Why is Kay Hagan using Jimmy Carter's failed policies to fix the current energy crisis?" the mailer says.

Inside, it cites an editorial in Investor's Business Daily and a guest column in the Wall Street Journal by Republican Rep. John Shadegg to argue that Hagan would "make America dependent on foreign oil."

"Kay Hagan opposed offshore drilling to make America less reliant on foreign oil," it says.

Hagan initially opposed lifting a ban on offshore drilling, but later backed a failed bipartisan compromise that would have allowed some drilling and encouraged alternative energy.

Previously: Robocall targets Hagan on drilling.