Why did Pat McCrory beat Fred Smith?

As with the Democratic gubernatorial race, it's dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions, but here are a few educated guesses about how the Charlotte mayor won the primary.

He had a strong base. As a seven-term mayor of the largest city in North Carolina, McCrory had a larger pool of supporters than Smith. Playing on his childhood in Jamestown, he made a strong play for the Triad, where no candidate had a base.

He raised money. Aided by his ties to the Charlotte business community, he quickly made up for lost time, raising $1.2 million in the first half of the year — more than any of his Republican competitors, all of whom had been running for a year.

His ads were effective. McCrory had four ads in heavy rotation on jobs, immigration, corruption and leadership. Smith had two ads; Bill Graham just one. McCrory's ads were distinctive, with a clean white background that stood out.

He learned quickly. After initial missteps in his "garage-band" phase, Smith shuffled his staff and brought in a star consultant. He picked up on concerns about illegal immigration and corruption in Raleigh, cutting into Smith's core message.

His competitors ran poor campaigns. Smith ran an old-school campaign based on barbecues and spent money on a book and a song. Graham ran his TV ads two years too soon then parted ways with his consultant in the home stretch. Bob Orr was underfunded.

Pat McCrory says Jack Hawke came to him.

The Republican gubernatorial candidate said that his new campaign manager became interested because of the endorsements of former Republican governors Jim Martin and Jim Holshouser.

He said Hawke came to his campaign headquarters about three weeks ago, but not necessarily because he was looking for work.

"I don't think that was his sole purpose," he said. "He was actually talking about Civitas, and we just hit it off extremely well and kind of mutually we said we might make a good team."

McCrory also said that his much-quoted "garage band" remark at his campaign kickoff was misunderstood. At the time, McCrory said he wasn't going to hire "high-priced consultants" to tell him what to say.

But he told Dome last night that he was referring to the early stages.

"When I was saying garage band, I literally meant it because we had just put a team of five people together when I announced in Jamestown, but I knew that we were going to be gradually building upon that team and bringing in true professionals like Jack Hawke," he said.

He said that he will be running a grassroots effort and a pretty extensive media campaign.

"We are still running a garage-band type of campaign, but we've moved onto a big arena," he said, laughing. "We get to play the arena occasionally."

Pat McCrory namedropped no fewer than three North Carolina cities in his speech. 

At his kickoff on the steps of the Jamestown public library today, he noted that he grew up in the small town outside Greensboro. 

"It is here in Jamestown where I got my values," he said. "I then moved to Salisbury to Catawba College where I attained my higher education and I got my teaching degree. ... And from Salisbury after college, I moved to Charlotte, and the people of Charlotte allowed me to become a leader." 

Democratic pollster Tom Jensen points out that all three are on Interstate 85, where he so far is polling the best. (You may recall that polling consultant Brad Crone argued a while back that the road is the state's new political lifeline.)

In addition, Salisbury is the home of one of his GOP rivals, Bill Graham.

Just as the Charlotte mayor chose to officially start his campaign in Jamestown, though, Graham went to his childhood hometown of Dunn for his kickoff. Fred Smith, who lives in Clayton, went to the former orphanage in Raleigh, where he grew up.

Bob Orr didn't have a kickoff. 

Pat McCrory was unflappable at his campaign kickoff.

First, there was the weather: The lower 40s with a brisk chill blowing in.

Then, there was the freight train that began blowing just as he began his speech.

And strangest of all, there was the real estate agent who rushed up to McCrory just before the big moment to hand him a business card.

The man, who had also written "Asian for McCrory" on his campaign sign with a ballpoint pen, told Dome that he likes Republicans because they are for small government.

He also talked briefly with McCrory, who thanked him for coming and gracefully parted ways. 

Pat McCrory will announce at 1 p.m. Tuesday at the Jamestown Public Library.

The Charlotte mayor has declined to comment about what the announcement will be, but it is widely expected to be a run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, the Charlotte Observer reports.

Guilford County Sheriff B.J. Barnes said today the mayor didn't tell him what the announcement will be.

"But I suspect that's it," he said. "I don't know why he's being so secretive about it."

From Tim Boyum's Political Connections blog:

News 14 Carolina has learned that seven-term Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory will announce his run for governor at 1 p.m. Tuesday in his hometown of Jamestown.