Poll: N.C. more confident in Democrats

North Carolinians think that Democrats are better able than Republicans to address many of the major issues facing the United States, according to a new poll by Elon University.

The poll of of 797 North Carolina residents from Oct. 27-30 found that North Carolinians have more confidence in Democrats to deal with health care, education, energy independence, the financial crisis, Social Security, taxes and home foreclosures.

There was only one issue - the war in Iraq - where North Carolinians felt more confident about the Republicans.

"As the economy dominates the news, it appears to be benefiting the Democratic candidates," Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll, said in a statement. "The other side of this equation is that citizens are holding the Republicans accountable for the state of the economy."

The Elon poll does not screen for registered or likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A more detailed breakdown after the jump.

Poll: N.C. blames GOP on economy

Twice as many North Carolinians blame Republicans for the economy than Democrats.

According to a recent survey by the Elon University Poll, 48 percent of respondents blamed the GOP for the current state of the economy, while 24 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent said neither party.

Respondents also gave essentially a tie to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Republican John McCain over who would do a better job managing the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama, 42 percent said McCain and seven percent said neither.

"North Carolina, following the national trend, is leaning Democrat for President," said pollster Hunter Bacot. "Should this pattern prevail, the result would be a startling change in state presidential politics for more than one reason."

Unlike other pollsters, Elon does not screen for registered voters or likely voters.  

The live-operator telephone poll of 477 North Carolina residents was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct 2. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Poll: Majority favor drilling

A poll by Elon University found that 69 percent of North Carolina residents support offshore drilling. Another 26 percent are opposed.

The poll also found that 67 percent believe gas prices would fall within a decade, Barb Barrett reports.

"People in North Carolina clearly believe that offshore oil drilling would reduce the pain they feel at the gasoline pump and may agree with any initiative to lift the ban that’s in place," said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University poll.

Here’s the breakdown, according to the poll, of respondents saying when they thought prices would be affected by offshore drilling:

— Immediately to less than one year: 14 percent.

— One to five years: 29 percent.

— Six to 10 years: 24 percent.

— Will never affect gas prices: 6 percent.

More after the jump.

The more polls, the merrier

Hunter BacotHunter Bacot says the more polls, the merrier.

The head of the Elon University Poll says he welcomes the efforts of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm in Raleigh that has gotten more attention this year.

"This election cycle is unlike any we've ever known," he said. "People are just consuming information. They're devouring it, and they want to know anything that's coming out about these campaigns."

The two have very different methodologies, with Elon surveying the general population with live operators and Public Policy Polling using automated callers to poll likely voters.

But Bacot said that he's not troubled by that, provided that the firm takes care when sampling.

He says he does have some concerns about the fact that the firm often does one-day polls, which can be misleading. In North Carolina, a poll on Wednesday, for example, will miss a substantial bloc of religious voters who are at their weekly prayer meetings.

Still, he says any problems with Public Policy Polling will even out when the results of other polls are factored in.

"As far as I'm concerned, the more people in our state polling industry, the better off we are," he said.

Poll: N.C. worried about water

Most North Carolinians are well aware of the drought and are concerned about the state's water supplies, according to the results of a statewide poll released today.

The poll, conducted by Elon University, also found that most people consider water conservation to be a long-term issue that will last more than five years.

The results suggest that the public supports government efforts to fight the drought and save water, poll director Hunter Bacot said in a news release.

The poll, conducted last week, surveyed 473 residents. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Specific poll findings after the jump:

Poll: N.C. likes Dole more than Bush

A majority of North Carolinians are satisfied with the job U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole is doing. They're not so certain about President George W. Bush.

Those are the findings of the latest survey by the Elon University Poll, which surveyed 764 North Carolina residents Feb. 18-21. Elon did not limit its survey to registered voters or likely voters.

The poll found that slightly more than half of those surveyed approved (39.2 percent) or strongly approved (11.5 percent) of the job Dole is doing in the Senate. More than 26 percent of those surveyed said they didn't know how Dole, a Salisbury Republican, was doing.

Only 35 percent of those surveyed said they approved (25 percent) or strongly approved (10.5 percent) of the job Bush is doing. Almost 40 percent said they strongly disapproved of how Bush is doing.

The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

"While Senator Dole receives decent reviews from North Carolinians overall, the Bush presidency is tempering her support a bit in the state, and this could prove a liability as she runs for re-election this fall," Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll, said in a statement.

Meet the Pollster: Hunter Bacot

Hunter BacotHunter Bacot uses polls as a learning tool.

As head of the Elon University Poll since 2005, the professor of public administration has used four student interns, members of a class on polling and paid student workers to poll North Carolinians.

That suits Bacot just fine. A native North Carolinian, he taught public administration at UNC-Charlotte and still teaches two courses a semester at Elon.

The university conducts an average of five polls during the academic year. Randomized phone numbers from a Connecticut firm are used to generate a list, while live operators read questions with rotating wording to reduce wording bias.

Elon's polls are not done for any client, so Bacot focuses more on general issues than specific campaigns. An exception is during major election years, when he'll craft questions about the races for president, governor and U.S. Senate.

Bacot, 46, says they do not screen for registered or likely voters. That makes them slightly less reliable for predicting elections, which often hinge on turnout, but Bacot says that's not the purpose.

"Our perspective is that everyone is a part of the democratic process, whether they participate or not," he said. "Some people think that's a bad thing, but we think that if you live in the state you deserve a voice."

Night night for Edwards?

The most unlikely political metaphor Dome has come across in a long while.

From Tim Boyum's Political Connections blog, where he is checking in with Elon University pollster Hunter Bacot:

He says if Edwards doesn't get 20% it's pretty much night night for his campaign unless he can somehow remarkably win in South Carolina (where he did win in 2004 but is polling poorly now).

Bush, Iraq down in Southeast

A majority of southeasterners disapproves of both President Bush and Congress.

A survey by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs showed 57 percent of respondents disapprove or strongly disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job.

At the same time, 53 percent said they lack confidence in Congress. Forty-four percent trusted the Democrats more than Bush, 32 percent backed Bush and 15 percent said neither could be trusted.

"Citizens are clearly frustrated with both branches of government," said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll. "But, at least in these states, it appears they blame the president more than Congress for problems in Washington."

The poll was conducted of 1,374 residents of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia from Nov. 4-8 and 12-14.

It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent. 

Elon poll: N.C. not happy about Iraq

Nearly two-thirds of North Carolina residents disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq, according to a new poll.

The Elon University Poll found that 65 percent disapprove of the war, while 38 percent approve of Bush’s performance, reports Rob Christensen.

“The war in Iraq continues to burden the Bush administration — citizens are unhappy with the war and apparently become more disenchanted with the prospects of its ending anytime soon,” said Hunter Bacot, the poll’s director.

“More telling is that a majority of people now believe we should not be there and two-thirds want to see troops start coming home by the beginning of next year.”

The poll of 664 North Carolina residents was conducted Sept. 24-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

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