With the U.S. House expected to shortly begin debate on health care legislation, most North Carolinians believe some form of reform is needed, according to a new poll released this morning, Rob Christensen reports.

Three out of four Tar Heel residents believe the current system health care system in the United States needs reform, according to the Elon University Poll.

But North Carolinians are divided about what type of changes are needed. The survey found that 54 percent would support health insurance legislation that would include a public option and that 51 percent would use a public option if it became available.

State residents were even more divided on a national insurance plan in which the federal government pays most of the medical and hospital costs for all citizens with 47 percent favoring and 47 percent opposing it.

"Obvious from these results is that citizens recognize that the health system is in need of reform, but like most Americans, are divided over how to do it," said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll.

The survey found that the percent of people who said they had some form of private insurance had dropped from 83 percent to 73 percent during the past year. The polls was conducted Oct. 26-29 and surveyed 703 North Carolina residents. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge will hold a tele-town hall on Wednesday at 7 p.m. to discuss the health care plans before Congress.

Second Cistrict residents who want to participate in the call-in can sign-up by visiting Etheridge's Web site by noon Tuesday.

Few subjects are as tricky to poll as gay marriage.

Elon University Poll head Hunter Bacot said that he was very careful when coming up with questions about same-sex marriage for a recent poll.

He said that answers can differ depending on whether the pollster asks about "gay marriage," "same-sex marriage," or "homosexual marriage." Earlier questions about "gay and lesbian rights" can also frame the issue differently.

The three questions that Bacot came up with first tested people's underlying principles, then asked about an amendment, then gave them information about state laws.

He deliberately avoided using the words "gays and lesbians" anywhere in the questions or the word "ban" to describe the amendment (instead saying it would "prevent" same-sex marriages).

"I think the terminology can make a difference," he said. "When you mix-and-match the terminology, it can evoke different things."

Correction: An earlier version of this post said that Elon had not polled this issue before. It has polled gay marriage, but not an amendment.

Half of North Carolinians oppose a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage.

In a survey by the Elon University Poll, 50 percent of respondents said that they oppose adding a ban on same-sex marriage to the state constitution, while 43 percent supported it.

They did not support same-sex marriage, however.

On a separate question, 44 percent said they opposed any legal recognition for same-sex couples, 28 percent supported civil unions or partnerships that stop short of full marriage rights and 21 percent support full marriage rights.

"Given the contention in opinions across these hot-button issues, state legislators face some tough decisions in the coming months," said pollster Hunter Bacot.

Two bills that would put a ban up to a vote have been buried in committees in the state legislature by Democratic leaders.

The live poll of 620 North Carolina residents was conducted March 15-19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Can one question get the answers on the death penalty?

Elon University pollster Hunter Bacot says no.

He cites social science research dating back to the 1970s that has found significant differences in poll results based on how the question is asked.

Simply asking if respondents support the death penalty is not enough, he says. A large majority will usually answer yes, though some theorize that's because they are looking for a suitably harsh punishment for crimes such as first-degree murder.

But when presented with an alternative, such as life in prison without the possibility of parole, support drops dramatically.

"At the minimum, you have to at least ask about the death penalty and an alternative," Bacot says. 

That would call into question polls done by the conservative Civitas Institute.

More after the jump.

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Civitas Institute polls show support for the death penalty.

The conservative think tank's polling from 2005 to present does not show the dramatic drop in support for capital punishment as surveys by the Elon University Poll over the same time period.

Some caveats: Civitas polls likely voters, while Elon polls all residents. Both use live operators, but Civitas questions are closed, while Elon's are open-ended.

Civitas also asks more narrowly worded questions. Although its death penalty questions do not seem to have the loaded language that some complain about in its other polls, Elon pollster Hunter Bacot warns that this is a tricky subject to ask about.

* July 2005: "Do you support or oppose the death penalty for violent crimes?" Support, 66 percent; oppose, 26 percent; not sure, seven percent.

* Feb. 2007:"Do you support or oppose the death penalty for certain types of violent crimes?" Support, 69 percent; oppose, 23 percent; not sure, eight percent.

* April 2008: "Do you support the death penalty in North Carolina?" Yes, 60 percent; no, 27 percent; not sure 12 percent.

The three questions are not exactly the same. The first two have more room for exceptions — "for violent crime" and "for certain types of violent crimes" — which may tilt respondents with mixed emotions. 

That can make a big difference on a poll with closed questions, where respondents have to choose one of the options given.

Why did support for the death penalty drop?

Between 2005 and 2007, the percentage of North Carolinians surveyed by the Elon University Poll who said the death penalty is the "most appropriate punishment" for first-degree murder dropped from 61 to 48 percent.

In a poll last month, support remained at the lower number, 13 points below the first survey.

Pollster Hunter Bacot said that to the best of his knowledge Elon had the same methodology, population sampling and wording across the three surveys.

"I would imagine the difference in opinion on our surveys is somewhat attributable to a realization among the public of the fallibility of the process or system, or at least an increased awareness about those cases in which people convicted of crimes and serving sentences were later exonerated," he said in an e-mail to Dome.

One slight change: The coding of responses. The 2005 poll included "the death penalty," "life without parole," "other" and "don't know" as answers, the 2007 poll added "it depends on the evidence" and "sometimes right" and the 2009 poll included "it depends on the evidence."

The percentage that gave an answer other than the death penalty or life without parole did not change between polls.

A 2008 survey of likely voters by the conservative Civitas Institute showed 64 percent support, though the question was more narrowly worded.

After the jump, the results.

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A poll found North Carolinians want lawmakers to stop them from their own bad habit.

Nearly two thirds of state residents favor laws to ban cell phone use while driving, even though more than half of cell phone users report doing this regularly, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

"Though they recognize that it is dangerous and confess to doing it, citizens apparently won't stop driving and talking unless a change in the law forces them to do so," said pollster Hunter Bacot.

Eighty percent said using a cell phone while driving decreases highway safety. Of the 54 percent who said they do it, 56 percent said they do not use a hands-free device.

The poll found 65.7 percent said using a cell phone while driving should be illegal except in an emergency, 29.5 percent said it should be legal and 4.4 percent didn't know.

The live phone poll, conducted Feb. 22 to 26, surveyed 758 North Carolina residents. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Previously: Several bills target cell phones

A majority of North Carolina residents support the federal economic stimulus package.

The latest Elon University Poll found that 52 percent of those surveyed support the stimulus package, while 39 percent disapprove of the package.

When asked who they trusted to do the "best job" dealing with the main issues facing the country, 46 percent said President Barack Obama, 21 percent said congressional Republicans and 10 percent said congressional Democrats.

"While North Carolinians are pessimistic about the economy, they are pinning their hopes on President Obama to lead them through the crisis," said Hunter Bacot, director of the poll.

The poll surveyed 758 North Carolina residents from Feb. 22-26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Update: A poll released earlier in the week by the Civitas Institute found that 50 percent of North Carolina voters support the stimulus package, while 36 percent are opposed to the package.

Civitas surveyed 600 registered voters from Feb. 16-19. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. 

North Carolinians think that Democrats are better able than Republicans to address many of the major issues facing the United States, according to a new poll by Elon University.

The poll of of 797 North Carolina residents from Oct. 27-30 found that North Carolinians have more confidence in Democrats to deal with health care, education, energy independence, the financial crisis, Social Security, taxes and home foreclosures.

There was only one issue - the war in Iraq - where North Carolinians felt more confident about the Republicans.

"As the economy dominates the news, it appears to be benefiting the Democratic candidates," Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll, said in a statement. "The other side of this equation is that citizens are holding the Republicans accountable for the state of the economy."

The Elon poll does not screen for registered or likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A more detailed breakdown after the jump.

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Twice as many North Carolinians blame Republicans for the economy than Democrats.

According to a recent survey by the Elon University Poll, 48 percent of respondents blamed the GOP for the current state of the economy, while 24 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent said neither party.

Respondents also gave essentially a tie to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Republican John McCain over who would do a better job managing the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama, 42 percent said McCain and seven percent said neither.

"North Carolina, following the national trend, is leaning Democrat for President," said pollster Hunter Bacot. "Should this pattern prevail, the result would be a startling change in state presidential politics for more than one reason."

Unlike other pollsters, Elon does not screen for registered voters or likely voters.  

The live-operator telephone poll of 477 North Carolina residents was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct 2. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.