North Carolina's unemployment rate will reach 12 percent, predicts Harry M. Davis, economist for the N.C. Bankers Association and a banking professor at Appalachian State University.

North Carolina now ranks fourth in unemployment, he said.

The state's economy is suffering more than the nation as a whole, because the state still has a large manufacturing sector, Davis said in a news release from the bankers this morning. North Carolina's manufacturing base diminished substantially over the past decade, while high-tech, health care and finance have grown. Despite that shift, the slowdown in global trade has hurt the remaining manufacturing businesses.

"We can expect our unemployment rate to rise to 12 percent soon," Davis said in the release, "and continue to rise into next year."

On the brighter side, Davis said the housing market may be near the bottom, and commodity prices have stopped dropping, which are both positive signs.