More water for Senate tea leaves

It's time to refresh the old cup of Senate tea leaves.

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2010 continues to be completely wide open, though it's increasingly clear that most of the major state officials will pass on it.

Here's the latest conventional wisdom:

THE LAST BIG HOPE: Washington Democrats and national political pundits continue to search for a brand name. U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre is still toying with a run, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has lately dipped her toe in the water. A definitive "no" has not come from state Sen. Dan Blue yet.

DARK HORSES: Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham leads the pack of dark horses, though former Obama fundraiser Kenneth Lewis can't be counted out. Marshall's legislative liaison, Robert Wilson, told the Insider he was flirting with the idea, but he never returned Dome's calls and he would not likely run against his boss.

WHO'S NOT RUNNING: U.S. Reps. Heath Shuler, Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, Attorney General Roy Cooper, state Sen. Malcolm Graham, state Reps. Grier Martin and Tricia Cotham, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker, and Elizabeth Edwards have all said no. Of course, so did Kay Hagan in 2008.

In Dome's view, Marshall may actually make a run for it: 1) She's interested, since she ran for Senate in 2002; 2) she wouldn't lose her day job (unlike McIntyre or Blue); and 3) at 63, this is probably her last chance to do it. 

That said, Cunningham has a good biography and seems to be exciting the netroots. 

Shuler: Not running for Senate

heath ShulerU.S. Rep. Heath Shuler has shot down a Senate bid again.

Speaking at a groundbreaking in Asheville, the Waynesville Democrat said he would not run against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr in 2010, according to the Hendersonville Times-News:

"I am not running for Senate," the second-term Democrat said after a ground-breaking ceremony for a new building at the Bent Creek Experimental Forest Station in Asheville. "I am not running for Senate. I am not running for Senate. I have said that a thousand times, and I don't know why they keep coming up (with the idea). Of course they keep coming up and running polls."

Shuler previously pondered — then rejected — a run for Senate, but some Democrats had floated his name again after Attorney General Roy Cooper declined to run. 

Others who have said no to a run on the Democratic side: U.S. Reps. Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Daltonstate Sen. Malcolm Graham, state Reps. Tricia Cotham and Grier Martin and Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker.

Graham not interested in Senate bid

Malcolm GrahamScratch another name off the Democratic list.

State Sen. Malcolm Graham of Charlotte shot down rumors this morning that he was considering a run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

"No way," he said.

He had previously told the Fayetteville Observer he was taking "a casual look" at running against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr.

Others who have said no to a run on the Democratic side: U.S. Reps. Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, Attorney General Roy Cooper, state Reps. Tricia Cotham and Grier Martin and Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker.

Martin's not interested either

Grier MartinRep. Grier Martin says he's not running either.

The Raleigh Democrat, who turned down a recruiting campaign in 2008, told Dome that he's not considering a race against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr.

"My decision to decline a chance to run against Elizabeth Dole was also not to run in 2010," he said. 

Martin said he's declined both chances because he wants to spend more time with his six-year-old daughter, Sara, which he called "one of the best decisions" he's ever made.

Republican Rep. John Blust likes to taunt Martin, noting that he could have been a U.S. senator if he'd run.  

"John loves messing with me, and he's been kind enough to stop that lately," Martin said. "I tell him there are things that I'd rather be than a U.S. senator."

Tea leaves on the U.S. Senate race

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2010 is wide open.

At this point, any of the major Democratic officials in the state could announce a campaign and quickly move to front-runner status. Or one of the lesser-known candidates could jump in and begin making waves.

Still, a few things are becoming evident:

DSCC THINKING BIG: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is looking for a brand name. Despite its success in 2008 with a state senator with low name recognition, the Washington crowd is looking for a Congressman or current or former statewide official.

WHO'S IN, WHO'S OUT: U.S. Reps. Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Grier Martin seem increasingly unlikely. Washington types like Rep. Heath Shuler, who's not ruling it out, while Rep. Mike McIntyre is interested.

STILL UNKNOWN: A few other potential candidates have not been heard from: Raleigh mayor Charles Meeker, former state Treasurer Richard Moore, state legislator Dan Blue, and the rest of this extensive list. (Update: Meeker's out, Blue's answer is ambiguous.)

PRIMARY COMPETITION: Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis seems increasingly likely to run in the primary. Former state senator Cal Cunningham may also make a run for it. Either candidate would lead to a more interesting primary than Democrats faced in 2008.

By picking a female candidate with pro-business credentials and strong North Carolina ties, Democrats neutralized some of Sen. Elizabeth Dole's advantages and set up a contrast between the native and the so-called carpetbagger.

It's not yet clear what their strategy would be against Burr. But here are a few qualities to consider: Son of a Presbyterian minister, college football player, Triad native, and conservative with a record on veterans' issues.

If not Cooper, then who?

Who else might run for U.S. Senate?

With Attorney General Roy Cooper dropping out of a long-expected run against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, only Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis is left on the Democratic sid, and even he hasn't committed.

Here's a running list of other contenders:

* Richard Moore: Former state treasurer, failed Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Why he might run: Ambitious, rich pol who won statewide office twice. Why not: May have damaged brand with 2008 campaign.

* Brad Miller: Congressman, former state legislator. Why he might run: He was very publicly courted to run in 2008. Why not: He's just hitting his stride in the House; he may have personal issues.

* Cal Cunningham: Former state senator, U.S. Army reservist. Why he might run: He's reportedly interested in the race. Why not: He has low statewide name recognition and no current post to run from.

* Heath Shuler: Congressman, former NFL player. Why he might run: He spent 118 days publicly thinking it over earlier this year. Why not: He may be too conservative for a Democratic primary.

* Charles Meeker: Raleigh mayor who has been mentioned before. Why he might run: Served four terms as popular mayor of one of state's largest cities. Why not: That didn't help Pat McCrory win the governor's mansion.

* Grier Martin: Young turk in state legislature who turned down 2008 recruiting effort. Why he might run: Probably still kicking himself. Why not: Will need tons and tons of money for a guy with no statewide name recognition.

* Bob Etheridge: Congressman, former state schools superintendent. Why he might run: He's won statewide before and is known as an affable campaigner. Why not: He's just landed a spot on the powerful Ways and Means committee.

* Mel Watt: Congressman, former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. Why he might run: He managed Harvey Gantt's first campaign for Senate. Why not: He's got a can't-lose position in the House.

* Mike McIntyre: Congressman, member of the Blue Dog Coalition. Why he might run: He could match Burr on conservative issues in the general election. Why not: Those same stances would hurt him in a primary.

* Dan Blue: Former House speaker who recently moved over to the state Senate. Why he might run: He ran for Senate nomination in 2002. Why not: His politics may be too liberal for a statewide race; he'd have to give up his seat again.

* Elaine Marshall: Secretary of state now in her fifth term. Why she might run: She ran for the Democratic nomination in 2002. Why not: The longest-serving current member of the Council of State is in a comfortable job now.

* Janet Cowell: State treasurer, former state senator, former Raleigh councilwoman. Why she might run: She's a savvy pol who's climbed the ladder quickly already. Why not: After only a few months in statewide office, it might be too soon.

* Erskine Bowles: University of North Carolina system president, former Clinton chief of staff. Why he might run: He ran in 2002 and 2004. Why not: He lost both times; he's praised Burr; he's already thinking of retiring.

* Elizabeth Edwards: Health care advocate, wife of former U.S. Sen. John Edwards. Why she might run: She's vastly more popular among voters than her husband. Why not: That's not saying much.

Helmet bill passes committee

Bikers who want to ride with the wind in their hair made progress in the General Assembly today when a House committee approved a bill to peel back North Carolina's motorcycle safety helmet requirement — for some riders, on some roads.

Motorcyclists would be free to go bare-headed if they're 21 or older and riding where the speed limit is 45 mph or slower, under a bill that passed on a 9-7 vote in the House Transportation Committee, Bruce Siceloff reports.

The helmet law got tougher in 2008 with a requirement that bikers wear helmets good enough to meet federal safety standards.

An official with the Governor's Highway Safety Program offered evidence that better helmets are saving more lives: Motorcycle crashes grew in number last year, but motorcycle deaths decreased from 192 in 2007 to 142 in 2008.

And most of those deaths involved adult bikers. Only 13 fatalities involved motorcycle riders younger than 21.

More after the jump.

Legal ads bill falls

A bill that would have given 12 towns the option to stop announcing public hearings in newspaper ads couldn't get the votes to get out of a House committee Monday.

The local bill was the latest attempt by Rep. Paul Stam, an Apex Republican, to give more municipalities the ability to advertise public hearings on their own Web sites rather than buy space in the classified section of a newspaper.

The idea has encountered objection from newspaper publishers and editors who argue that a significant number of people have Internet connections, and that government should not be the sole advertiser of public hearings.

The bill also comes as newspapers are coping with dramatic losses in advertising revenue.

More after the jump.

Why Cooper might not run

Roy CooperD.G. Martin has a few reasons why Roy Cooper may not run.

The retired university administrator, who ran in the Democratic Senate primary in 1998, outlined a few of the obvious reasons the attorney general would run for Senate in a column today: A strong profile, a fighting chance and ambition.

But he also gave a few reasons Cooper might decide against it:

Cooper likes his current work as Attorney General. He is in charge of his office and its considerable resources. He knows that U.S. Senators, for all their prestige and influence, have a hard time getting big things done. Terry Sanford, for instance, found his Senate service to be a frustrating experience for a "man of action."

He also noted that Cooper would have to spend a lot of time fundraising and would have to spent time away from his three daughters.

"The prospect of leaving them for substantial times while he goes back and forth to Washington could clinch a decision not to run," he writes.

Martin's son, Grier, was recruited to run for U.S. Senate in 2007, but decided against it becaues of family issues.

Credit card parking passes House

A bill that would allow Raleigh and Chapel Hill to use credit card based parking meters cleared the House Tuesday.

The bill also applies to Wilmington, Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach and Kure Beach, Ben Niolet reports.

The city of Raleigh intends to eliminate free parking downtown.

Rep. Grier Martin, a Wake County Democrat and one of the bill's sponsors, made a point of mentioning that the bill didn't eliminate free parking. It simply allows those cities and towns  to install parking meters that accept credit cards.

The bill passed 113 to 0. It now heads to the Senate.

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