When should fundraisers release their results?

As we noted previously, campaign finance officials often find themselves in the same situation as participants in the prisoner's dilemma.

In the weeks between the end of the fiscal quarter and the date the numbers are turned in to the State Board of Elections, fundraisers face a similar question: Stay quiet, tell the truth or bluff?

Staying quiet means not releasing any campaign finance numbers until the state board does. Telling the truth means releasing the amount of donations. Bluffing means shading the numbers (including a personal loan among money raised, for example).

As N.C. State economics professor Xiayong Zheng explained to Dome, game theory experts recommend multiplying the risks by the payoff for each option:

* Stay quiet. The risk: You raised more money, but the news gets buried when everyone's numbers become public. The payoff: None.

* Tell the truth. The risk: Your opponent raised more money and quickly trumpets it. The payoff: If you're ahead, you lead the news cycle.

* Bluff. The risk: Reporters or your opponent will point out the discrepancy. The payoff: You lead the news cycle until then and/or the correction is buried.

As Zheng notes, the best option will depend on two things: How much your opponent raised and how they react to your actions.

Call it the Fundraiser's Dilemma.

In game theory, the prisoner's dilemma is what happens when two suspects have to decide how much information to tell authorities.

If both suspects keep quiet, they'll go free. But if one comes clean, he'll get a lesser sentence while the other will heads to prison.

The equivalent situation comes up when political campaigns finish counting the donations but have not yet turned them in.

Since they usually don't know how much the other campaign raised, fundraisers struggle with when to release their figures.

If they go first, they risk being quickly topped by a higher number from the other campaign. That could dampen ongoing efforts to raise money.

But if they in fact raised more, they'll get positive press coverage, have an easier time lining up support and—most importantly—raise even more money by announcing their results.