Is Duke Energy's CEO on the short list?

A Washington Post article this morning lists Jim Rogers as a potential member of President-elect Barack Obama's Cabinet: 

There's no shortage of names floating for energy secretary, a job where the majority of the workload in the past has been dealing with nuclear waste, nuclear weapons handling and the various nuclear laboratories. Even so, a cast of luminaries have been mentioned, including Duke Energy executive Jim Rogers, former Energy Department official Dan Reicher, former top Clinton White House environmental aide Kathleen McGinty, FedEx chairman and Republican backer Fred Smith, New Jersey utility chief executive Ralph Izzo, and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.).

Note: The Fred Smith mentioned above is not the former gubernatorial candidate. 

Hat Tip: Facing South

Chris Kromm says provisional ballots won't help John McCain.

In a post on Facing South, the head of the Institute for Southern Studies says that the number of provisional ballots will likely be lower than in past elections because of one-stop voting and notes that they have "historically favored" the Democratic candidate.

Historically, North Carolina has had a high number of provisionals: as the N.C. Coalition for Verified Voting notes in their helpful run-down on the issue, N.C. had 77,469 provisional ballots in 2004 and 92,621 in the 2006 mid-terms. The 2004 number put N.C. in the top five nationally for provisional votes in 2004.

The number of provisional ballots is expected to be lower in 2008 because of same-day voter registration, a reform passed in 2007. The top reason people vote provisionally, and end up having their ballots rejected, is because they are not registered. In N.C., where 42% of the electorate voted during the early voting period, voters can register and vote at the same time during early voting.

He says the provisional ballots won't help McCain make up an 11,690-vote deficit to Barack Obama in North Carolina when the final votes are certified.

Chris Kromm revisits the potential spoiler.

In a post on Facing South, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies notices a trend in the presidential polling in North Carolina:

Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr, the former Congressman from Georgia, will be on the ballot in NC (despite the state's enormously restrictive ballot access laws). But most of the polls that showed double-digit leads for McCain in North Carolina didn't include Barr.

Since August, any poll that has included Barr has shown McCain with no more than a six point advantage, or even put Obama in the lead. The last two polls — from PPP (Democratic) and Civitas Institute (Repulican) — include Barr, and they show McCain and Obama exactly tied.

According to Pollster.com, Barr has received between zero and six percent support in polls done since May.

Earlier: Presidential spoilers in N.C. history. 

Chris Kromm wonders if Barack Obama is leaving the South.

In a post on Facing South, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies points to a recent story in the Wall Street Journal that says Obama has focused on the traditional swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan this month.

Kromm wonders what effect a narrower map would have on North Carolina.

"A lurking question: if Obama pulls up stakes in North Carolina and other used-to-be-battlegrounds in the final weeks, what will that mean for down-ticket Democrats counting on his voter-turnout coattails?" he writes. "Or has the Obama base in those states already been energized?"

Chris Kromm says the Jesse Helms obituaries missed the point.

In a lengthy post on the Facing South blog, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies said the mainstream media "down-played, ignored or even denied Helms' prejudices."

"To say Sen. Helms held deep prejudices against many — especially African-Americans and gays and lesbians — isn't a matter of opinion; it's all part of the historical record," he writes.

He attacks the idea that Helms was a "straight talker."

"Helms the strategic politician ... knew that by cultivating a straight-talk persona he could shift attention from the regressive content of what he was saying to a defense of his right to 'speak his mind' — but his fans and voters got the real message," he writes.

And he says Helms was not an "iconoclast."

"Helms' antics and positions did on many occasions put him at the far-right extremes of political debate. But he was by no means a marginal, fringe politician, and such a portrayal ignores Helms' ongoing popularity and his central role in U.S. politics for three decades," he writes.

Chris Kromm says that political analysts are asking the wrong question.

The debate over North Carolina's Electoral College votes will matter for the first time since The Band held its farewell concert should not be whether Barack Obama can beat John McCain, he argues on the Facing South blog.

As is often the case, the issue might not be whether N.C. has the potential to go for Obama — it's whether Obama and the Democrats will invest (or be able to invest, given other competing priorities) the resources, time and energy that would allow Obama to capitalize on that potential. 

Kromm says the case can be made for either Obama or McCain winning the state.

Dome tends to agree with Kromm on this point. Clearly, North Carolina is not going to be in the top tier of swing states in 2008, but Obama's unprecedented fundraising ability could allow him to spend money in more marginal states — even if only to drain McCain's resources.

A Washington-based nonprofit is behind the "Lamont Williams" calls.

According to Facing South, a staffer for Women's Voices Women Vote admitted that it was behind recent robocalls that gave misleading information about voter registration.

The State Board of Elections has been looking for the source of the calls.

The nonprofit told the Institute for Southern Studies, which runs the Facing South blog, that the calls were part of a 24-state effort to register unmarried women. But the calls do not mention the group's name, they come from an unlisted number and they are misleading.

The calls tell voters to look for a voter-registration packet in the mail, but they were made after the deadline passed in North Carolina for mail-in registration.

Complaints have been made in Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona about similarly misleading calls.

"The reports from other states are very disturbing, especially the pattern of mass confusion among targeted voters on the eve of a state's primary," Democracy North Carolina's Bob Hall told Facing South.

"Lamont Williams" also made calls in Ohio.

The bogus robocaller — currently being hunted by the State Board of Elections for giving misinformation to black voters in North Carolina — also made calls in Ohio last year, according to Facing South.

Chris Kromm, executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies, found the connection with help from a reader:

Facing South has learned that these calls -- even down to the name of the supposed caller -- are very similar to calls used last year in Ohio. In November 2007, a voter in Columbus, Ohio wrote in to the Buckeye State Blog with this eerily familiar story:

I just got a weird robo-call that I suspect may be a form of voter suppression, albeit kinda braindead. From memory, a stentorian voice reminiscent of James Earl Jones says: "Hello. This is Lamont Williams. In a few days you should be getting a voter registration form in the mail. Please fill it out and return promptly and you will be able to vote. Thank you.

Update: Voters also received similar calls in Virginia. 

Chris Kromm argues that the N.C. Democratic Party is siding with Hillary Clinton over a proposed debate.

In a post on Facing South, the executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies says that the state party is favoring Clinton by making plans for a debate in North Carolina on April 27.

Barack Obama had earlier called for an April 19 debate, which would be shortly before Pennsylvania's April 22 primary. But Clinton said the debate should not be held then because of Passover. She then countered with a proposal for an April 27 debate.

Obama has not yet agreed to the new date.

So why is the Democratic Party making arrangements with the RBC Center for April 27 and post notices about tickets online?

"The reason is clear: Because the North Carolina Democratic Party — supposedly neutral in the primaries — was, and is, taking Clinton's side and making her plan look like a done deal," Kromm writes.

Chris Kromm says that the number of unaffiliated voters is growing.

The executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies says a closer look at voters who have registered in the last three months shows that a plurality are Democrats.

In a post on Facing South, he notes that 46 percent of the newly registered voters are Democrats, 37 percent are unaffiliated, and 17 percent are Republicans.

Meantime, 63 percent of the growth in North Carolina Democrats are black voters, who make up 45 percent of registered Democrats and 20 percent of the overall electorate.

Also, the number of voters who identify as Hispanic as grown by 10 percent, and "other" by 4 percent.

"Those two groups still represent a relatively small share of the state's voters -- 134,000 state-wide, or just over 2% of North Carolina voters. But in a close primary, that could make a difference," he writes.

A recent report by the Pew Research Center found the number of self-identified Republicans had dropped significantly since 2004.

Correction: The numbers in Kromm's post were wrong and have since been corrected.