One poll says North Carolinians are increasingly opposed to health care reform proposals advanced by Democrats.

Another poll says more than half of state residents support those proposals. A third national poll says 45 percent of Americans oppose President Barack Obama's health care plan.

Dome isn't an expert on these sorts of things, but it's a safe bet that how the questions were asked and how the polls were conducted has something to do with the difference. Here's a quick roundup of what the October polls asked and what respondents said. Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.

Civitas Institute: (600 North Carolina voters) "Do you approve or disapprove of the health care plan being proposed by Barack Obama and Congress?" 49 percent opposed, 40 percent supported, 10 percent no opinion.

Elon University Poll, (703 state residents) "As you are likely aware, the public option is a health insurance option provided by the federal government...so, with this in mind, would you [support or oppose] health insurance legislation that would offer a public option?" 54 support, 38 percent oppose and 7 percent don't know.

Public Policy Polling (766 American voters) "Do you support or oppose President Obama’s health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?" 42 percent support, 45 percent oppose and 13 percent no opinion.

With the U.S. House expected to shortly begin debate on health care legislation, most North Carolinians believe some form of reform is needed, according to a new poll released this morning, Rob Christensen reports.

Three out of four Tar Heel residents believe the current system health care system in the United States needs reform, according to the Elon University Poll.

But North Carolinians are divided about what type of changes are needed. The survey found that 54 percent would support health insurance legislation that would include a public option and that 51 percent would use a public option if it became available.

State residents were even more divided on a national insurance plan in which the federal government pays most of the medical and hospital costs for all citizens with 47 percent favoring and 47 percent opposing it.

"Obvious from these results is that citizens recognize that the health system is in need of reform, but like most Americans, are divided over how to do it," said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll.

The survey found that the percent of people who said they had some form of private insurance had dropped from 83 percent to 73 percent during the past year. The polls was conducted Oct. 26-29 and surveyed 703 North Carolina residents. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge will hold a tele-town hall on Wednesday at 7 p.m. to discuss the health care plans before Congress.

Second Cistrict residents who want to participate in the call-in can sign-up by visiting Etheridge's Web site by noon Tuesday.

A new poll has found that 42 percent of North Carolinians say someone else should have U.S. Sen. Richard Burr's seat.

The Elon University Poll found that 19 percent of state residents believe Burr deserves another term in office, according to the survey of 703 state residents that was conducted Oct. 26-29.

The poll also found 29 percent of respondents said they "don't know" if Burr, a Winston-Salem Republican, deserves re-election.

Burr’s approval rating stands at 37 percent, the poll found, while 22 percent of respondents disapprove of the way he is handling his job. Forty-one percent don’t know how they feel on his job performance.

Two Democrats have formally entered the race. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and lawyer Kenneth Lewis have filed candidate paperwork.

The poll also asked respondents for their opinions on other political figures.

U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan: 35 percent approve, 35 percent disapprove, 29 percent don’t know.

Gov. Beverly Perdue: 36 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove, 18 percent don’t know.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Update: The National Republican Senatorial Committee weighed in on the poll. Expect to see this one a lot from Colin Reed, a spokesman for the committee:

In the words of Erskine Bowles just last week, 'nobody works harder or smarter for North Carolina than Richard Burr does.' It speaks to Senator Burr’s strength at home that as national Democrats struggle to recruit a strong challenger, his former opponent continues to offer nothing but praise for his hard work on behalf of North Carolina in the U.S. Senate.

And the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee issued it's own statement from spokesman Eric Schultz.

Whether it was its when he suggested a run on the banks, his hypocrisy over stimulus funding, or his inexplicable vote against justice for victims of sexual assault, it should come as no surprise that Richard Burr is the most vulnerable Republican in the United States Senate. 

North Carolinians trust the military and distrust Wall Street.

A recent survey by the Elon University Poll found that around 90 percent gave high marks to the military, small businesses, medical doctors and colleges and universities.

At least 75 percent gave high marks to the U.S. Supreme Court and public schools.

Around 70 percent also trusted organized religion and the White House.

Around 50 percent trusted law firms, banks, T.V. news, Congress and labor unions, though roughly equal numbers had no confidence in T.V. news, Congress, and labor unions.

The military scored the highest, with 3.9 percent saying they had no confidence, 25.8 percent saying they had some confidence, 68.8 percent saying they had a great deal of confidence and 1.4 percent saying they didn't know.

Wall Street did the worst, with 60.4 percent saying they had no confidence, 33.1 percent saying they had some confidence, 2.8 percent saying they had a great deal of confidence and 3.7 percent saying they didn't know.

The live survey of 356 North Carolina residents was conducted April 19-23. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. 

Another pollster will be surveying North Carolinians.

A group of Republican consultants and strategists have started Carolina Strategy Group, a business-focused firm that will regularly poll state voters.

Paul Shumaker, a longtime consultant who is currently advising Sen. Richard Burr's re-election campaign, said that he started the firm to pursue business work apart from his political consulting.

"I'm trying to provide a little bit of a buffer," he said.

Other members of the firm include media consultant Jean-Paul Damé, attorney Roger Knight, Virginia consultant Vick Gresham, South Carolina consultant Mark Lisella, attorney Neal Robbins and public relations executive Tim Pittman, the former press secretary for Gov. Jim Martin.

Shumaker said the firm will do two or three polls a month on public opinion issues that could affect business, such as state taxes, but he does not plan to do "horse race" polls on how candidates are doing.

Carolina Strategy Group will be the fourth major pollster in the state, after the Elon University Poll, Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and the conservative Civitas Institute.

A conservative group has questioned the Elon poll.

Tami Fitzgerald, an attorney with the conservative N.C. Family Policy Council, told the Associated Press that she disputed the methodology of the Elon University Poll which showed 50 percent of North Carolinians opposed a constitutional ban on gay marriage.

She argued that it surveyed all adults and not likely voters.

And she said the poll's question, which asked if the person would vote to "prevent any same-sex marriages," carried a negative tone that may have skewed the results.

"Phrasing it in a negative way probably elicited a stronger response in the negative," she said. Fitzgerald suggested asking if the person would approve an amendment defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

Pollsters with the conservative Civitas Institute, which has polled that wording, also objected to the Elon poll. 

A bill to ban gay marriage in the state constitution cited the Civitas poll.

The House version of the Defense of Marriage Act this year includes among its clauses a reference to polling on the issue done by the conservative think tank.

Whereas, in statewide poll numbers released May 20, 2008, by the John William Pope Civitas Institute, 71% of North Carolina voters support the passage of a State Marriage Amendment, while 26% are opposed. Among African-American voters, support for the marriage amendment was at 86% ...

That whereas has since been undermined, however.

A survey by the Elon University Poll released today showed that 50 percent of North Carolinians oppose a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

Hat Tip: Lisa Grafstein

An earlier Elon poll used much different wording.

The Elon University Poll survey in 2004 showed much more opposition to gay marriage than a recent survey, 64 percent then to 47 percent now.

But the earlier poll was worded much differently.

For one, it asked if people would support "a law allowing homosexual couples to marry, giving them the same legal rights as married couples."

Sixty-four percent said no, and 26 percent said yes.

In a separate question, it asked if people would support "a law allowing homosexual couples to form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples in areas such as health insurance, inheritance, and pension coverage.

Forty-eight percent said no, and 44 percent said yes.

The live poll of 685 North Carolinians was taken Feb. 16-19, 2004. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.74 percentage points.

After the jump, the questions.

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An earlier Elon poll showed more opposition to gay marriage.

A 2004 survey by the Elon University Poll showed roughly the same level of support for gay marriage but much more opposition than a recent survey.

From a press release:

North Carolinians were closely divided about legalizing civil unions among homosexual couples. Forty-four percent said they support the idea, while 48 percent were opposed.

Divisions were more pronounced concerning legalizing gay marriages. Only 26 percent favored the idea, while 64 percent were opposed. Fifty-seven percent said they supported a federal constitutional amendment defining marriage as occurring only between a man and a woman, while 34 percent were opposed.

The poll questions were not immediately available, though the wording of the press release is much different from the recent survey.

In addition, gay marriage was a hot topic in the 2004 elections.

Few subjects are as tricky to poll as gay marriage.

Elon University Poll head Hunter Bacot said that he was very careful when coming up with questions about same-sex marriage for a recent poll.

He said that answers can differ depending on whether the pollster asks about "gay marriage," "same-sex marriage," or "homosexual marriage." Earlier questions about "gay and lesbian rights" can also frame the issue differently.

The three questions that Bacot came up with first tested people's underlying principles, then asked about an amendment, then gave them information about state laws.

He deliberately avoided using the words "gays and lesbians" anywhere in the questions or the word "ban" to describe the amendment (instead saying it would "prevent" same-sex marriages).

"I think the terminology can make a difference," he said. "When you mix-and-match the terminology, it can evoke different things."

Correction: An earlier version of this post said that Elon had not polled this issue before. It has polled gay marriage, but not an amendment.