Did Republicans Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin become governor because of Democratic infighting?

That's the argument made by D.G. Martin in a column in the Chatham Journal Weekly. He says that splits between Democrats in the 1972 and 1984 primaries led to acrimony in the general elections, allowing the Republican candidates to win.

In '72, the split was between Lt. Gov. Pat Taylor and Skipper Bowles. Though Bowles won, Taylor backers were disinclined to vote for him, Martin argues.

In '84, former Charlotte Mayor Eddie Knox bitterly fought Attorney General Rufus Edmisten. Though Edmisten won, Knox and some of his supporters did not back the winner, Martin says.

Martin makes the case that the same could happen because of the fierce battle between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore for the Democratic nomination.

A couple quibbles: 1) The analysis is a bit blue-centric. Democrats lost, but Republicans also won. 2) In both cases, Martin's own history suggests the key test was after the primary, when Bowles failed to reach out and Knox refused to endorse. 3) With four candidates, the GOP may also split.

Hat Tip: Tom Jensen

In advance of Pat McCrory's announcement today, the Charlotte Observer has a nice recap of the supposed curse of Charlotte mayors who ran for higher office:

Eddie Knox
* 1984: Loses to Rufus Edmisten in the Democratic primary for governor

Harvey Gantt
* 1990: Loses to Jesse Helms in the general election for U.S. Senate
* 1996: Loses to Helms again in the general election for U.S. Senate

Richard Vinroot
* 1996: Loses to Robin Hayes in the Republican primary for governor
* 2000: Loses to Mike Easley in the general election for governor
* 2004: Loses to Patrick Ballantine in the Republican primary for governor

Sue Myrick
* 1992: Loses to Lauch Faircloth in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate

The Hendersonville Times-News breaks down the pros and cons of Pat McCrory's potential gubernatorial bid.

In an unsigned editorial, the newspaper writes that McCroy has "built-in advantages" including seven terms as mayor of Charlotte that other Republican candidates lack. 

More pointedly, he lacks the liabilities that will burden a partisan like Sen. Smith. Just as McCain, Obama and Clinton have cast caucus votes they won't be able to live down, Smith in a general election would have partisan votes on his record that will be easy to caricature as out of the mainstream.  

On the other hand, the paper notes that North Carolinians have only elected a Charlotte candidate once: Republican Gov. Jim Martin, while Queen City mayors Eddie Knox, Sue Myrick, Richard Vinroot and Harvey Gantt have all been defeated in statewide elections.

Will Democratic in-fighting hand the Governor's Mansion to the GOP?

Some Democrats are concerned about the precedent set by the only two Republican governors elected in the 20th century in North Carolina: Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin.

Both won elections after brutal Democratic primaries. (Holshouser in 1972 over Skipper Bowles, who fought Pat Taylor in a tough primary; Martin in 1984 over Rufus Edmisten, who fought Eddie Knox in a crowded Democratic primary.)

With Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore already getting down and dirty, some Democrats fear and some Republicans hope that history will repeat itself.

Not so fast, says Ferrell Guillory, a former political reporter who now heads the program on public life at UNC-Chapel Hill.

More after the jump.

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